Russia chooses to remain
skeptical By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - At this week's Group of Eight annual
summit in Georgia in the United States, Russia sounded
upbeat over the US-backed United Nations Security
Council resolution on Iraq, which effectively endorses
the handover of sovereignty to the current interim
administration on June 30. However, despite the
optimistic official pronouncements, Moscow remains
skeptical over President George W Bush's policies in
Iraq and the Middle East.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin said that the unanimous adoption of the
resolution by the Security Council came as a "major step
forward" for Iraq. This was about a major change in the
impact the UN had over the situation in Iraq, Putin
stated.
Russia has long opposed the US-led
invasion of Iraq to depose Saddam Hussein. The Kremlin
has repeatedly warned that the war could lead to chaos
and a rise in terrorism in Iraq. Nonetheless, in recent
months, Moscow has not wanted to disturb US sore spots
on Iraq, and top Russian officials have made virtually
no "I told you so" comments.
Russia has also
suggested that an international conference on Iraq be
organized before June 30 to discuss the new government.
Putin's foreign policy adviser, Sergei Prihodko, said
that Moscow was pleased that Washington was moving
toward supporting Russia's desire to organize an
international conference for Iraq, much like that held
for the reconstruction of Afghanistan in Bonn in 2002.
However, as the international conference on Iraq
is unlikely to be held before June 30, some "I told you
so" comments came from Moscow after all. Notably, Russia
has indicated that it wants the situation surrounding
allegations over Iraq's weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) to be "fully" clarified. "Since the issue of
weapons of mass destruction led to the war against Iraq,
it should not be left unresolved," Russian Foreign
Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko said on
Wednesday. By adopting its new resolution on Iraq, the
Security Council reiterated that more clarity was needed
on this issue, Yakovenko added.
Russia had
sought a reference in the resolution to resumed weapons
inspections for Iraq by UNMOVIC, the UN monitoring,
verification and inspection commission. The US said it
was premature to address the status of UNMOVIC while the
US-led Iraq Survey Group continues its investigation
into WMD programs.
Russia also refuses to send
troops to Iraq and said the UN resolution had not
changed its position. Russia had no plans of joining the
multinational forces in Iraq, Deputy Foreign Minister
Yury Fedotov said on Wednesday. However, he conceded
that the Security Council resolution "fully resolved the
issue of multinational forces in Iraq" as it authorizes
a US-led multinational force to maintain security in the
country.
Moreover, at the G8 summit, Washington
reportedly pressed Iraq's foreign creditors to forgive
"the vast majority", or some 80%, of the country's
US$120 billion in debt. But Russia's debt reduction
pledges fall short of US demands. Last December, Russia
offered to write off more than half of Iraq's $8 billion
debt to Moscow. The Kremlin also pledged multi-billion
investments in rebuilding Iraq. Preliminary estimates
suggest that investments by Russian companies could
reach $4 billion, Putin said. In exchange for the debt
write-off, Moscow expects some bounty from rebuilding
Iraq.
Russia also disapproves of Bush's Greater
Middle East initiative. Officially, Russia has no
quarrel with the democratic and economic reform plan,
also known as the "Broader Middle East and North African
Initiative", which also calls for measures against
terrorism, a key part of Russia's official policies.
However, Moscow rejected the Greater Middle East
initiative. Reforming the region is something that
should be done by Middle East countries themselves,
Yakovenko said. "Russia believes a more general,
multi-sided approach is required to solve the problems
in the Middle East," he stated.
In the meantime,
the Kremlin has made a number of positive gestures
toward Washington in recent days. Moscow has made yet
another overture by pledging to increase oil output and
exports regardless of world prices, as requested by the
US.
It is understood that the Kremlin is pleased
to see the West coming to seek Russian help over crude,
allowing Moscow to reap political dividends
internationally. With about 10% of the world's proven
oil reserves, Russia produces about 9 million barrels a
day, a sizable share of global consumption of around 80
million barrels. Only half of that is exported, mainly
to Europe, but the revenues from those oil sales provide
more than half of the Kremlin's annual budget.
The US also succeeded in its efforts to persuade
Russia to join the US-backed non-proliferation
initiative. Russia's Foreign Ministry announced that
Moscow would join the group of core countries in the
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).
Russia
was the only G8 member reluctant to join the PSI, which
was announced by Bush in May 2003. The PSI allows for
the seizure of missiles and other potential components
of WMD while they are at sea or in the air. Moscow has
argued the PSI would open the way for unilateral
military action from Washington and wanted such deals to
be negotiated through the UN Security Council, in which
it has veto power.
Meanwhile, Bush urged a wider
role for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
in post-occupation Iraq. This month's NATO summit in
Turkey is set to deal with Iraq and the Greater Middle
Eastern initiative.
Yet Putin will skip this
summit, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced.
Lavrov gave no official reason, but insisted Putin was
not snubbing the 26-nation talks in Istanbul.
Nonetheless, Putin's refusal came as yet another blow to
an event for which ambitions have already been scaled
down with the decision not to invite Arab states.
Putin's reluctance to attend the NATO summit
seems to be yet another indication of Moscow's hesitant
approach to Bush's policies in Iraq and the Greater
Middle East.
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