Moscow weighs price of Korean
peace By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- Despite having been sidelined in the wrangling over
Pyongyang's nuclear program, Russia is still keen to
demonstrate that it has sufficient influence to play a
role, and reap some rewards in the bargain.
After Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
met North Korea's top leader Kim Jong-il on Sunday, Moscow's
chief diplomat announced that his talks were cause for
optimism for the next round of six-way talks in Beijing
on North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Lavrov claimed that
there was a general consensus that the positive momentum
set in motion after the third round of talks in June
would lead to "quite concrete results" during the next
round scheduled for before the end of September.
To date, the two Koreas, the United States, Russia,
Japan and China have met for three rounds of talks that have
been dogged by mutual mistrust and have made little
progress.
The Dear Leader reportedly conveyed
his thanks to Russia for its recent food aid, 35,000
tons of grain supplied through the World Food Program.
Lavrov also conveyed a personal letter from Russian
President Vladimir Putin to Kim, and afterward
commented: "We considered questions of a three-sided
settlement on the Korean Peninsula with the
participation of Russia and the two Koreas," Tass quoted
Lavrov as saying in Pyongyang.
Lavrov also
reiterated Moscow's support for North Korea's proposal
of freezing its nuclear program in exchange for
compensation, such as energy supplies and economic aid.
Moreover, Lavrov also suggested goodwill gestures
toward Pyongyang, indicating that Washington should
consider exclusion of North Korea from its list of
countries supporting international terrorism.
It
is understood that since last summer, Russia has been
trying to advise Pyongyang against adopting a hardline
stance, but without obvious success. However, North
Korea demanded that an effective non-aggression treaty
should be signed with the US, and that Washington should
give up what is viewed in Pyongyang as its "hostile
policy" toward North Korea.
It has been
reported that in May 2003 Kim sent Putin a letter
seeking his help in breaking the stalemate with the US.
Putin has developed close relations with Kim, receiving
the reclusive leader twice in recent years.
Some
reports say that Moscow planned to host a summit between
the two Koreas in its Far East during South Korean
President Roh Moo-hyun's visit expected in September.
Others have said Putin himself would meet Kim at a
summit in the Russian Far East port city of Vladivostok
- a report flatly denied by Lavrov. "Such a meeting is
not planned at all," Tass quoted him as saying. The
Russian Foreign Ministry gave no details of Putin's
message to Kim beyond saying it dealt with issues of
bilateral cooperation and regional security.
The
Kremlin has repeatedly offered to mediate in the Korean
standoff and play host to "any meetings and talks to
help in any form so as to normalize the situation". But
last year Russia was sidelined when North Korea, the US
and China held talks in Beijing without inviting Russia.
This was explained as a consequence of Moscow's
unsuccessful mediation attempts in January 2003.
The North Korean nuclear
standoff began in October 2002 when US officials said Pyongyang
had admitted to running secret nuclear-weapons programs in
violation of international non-proliferation agreements.
Russia is North Korea's neighbor thanks to a
narrow border near Vladivostok. The Soviet Union was
Pyongyang's close ally during the 1950-53 Korean War,
but ties between Moscow and Pyongyang had been in
decline ever since the 1991 Soviet collapse, until Putin
started to work his charm.
The two countries
have now signed a new bilateral treaty to replace an
outmoded Soviet-era accord in place since 1961. However,
bilateral trade turnover has been below US$100 million
for the past few years. The decline has been blamed
mainly on North Korea's economic crisis and its unpaid
debts to Russia.
The last time Russia tried
its hand at negotiating a strategic agreement with Kim,
in 2000, it was a flop. Moscow announced it had
persuaded North Korea to give up its ballistic-rocket program in
exchange for Russia's launching of civilian satellites
into space. But it turned out that it was a ploy by Kim.
Hence it remains to be seen whether Russia's claims of
Pyongyang's willingness to accept the plan to freeze its
nuclear program in exchange for compensation are based
in reality.
Some Russian
officials suggest giving energy supplies to North Korea as reward
for it freezing its nuclear program. For
instance, Valery Yazev, the chairman of the state duma's (lower
house of parliament) committee for energy,
transport and communications, told journalists on Tuesday that "Russian
gas supplies could become a priority" for international
efforts to freeze North Korea's nuclear program.
Yazev, who is also president of
the Russian Gas Society, said there are two projects
for gas supplies to North Korea. The first runs from
Sakhalin through a 2,400-kilometer, $5 billion pipeline. The
second project envisages supplies from the giant Kovykta gas
field in eastern Siberia, with an estimated 2
trillion cubic meters of reserves. Yazev said the Kovykta
project could be approved this year.
Neither
project has been approved, but Yazev claims that they
could be implemented in three or four years if a
decision is made by the end of this year. However,
Yazev made it clear that the projects depend on how
"compensation" would be funded, otherwise Russia's gas
exporters would see no reason to join. In other words,
Russia would prefer to be paid by the international
community for gas supplies to North Korea.
So
the plan goes like this: North Korea, for stopping its
nuclear program, is rewarded by the West with energy,
which is supplied and transported by Russia, and for
which Moscow is paid in hard cash.
No wonder,
then, that Putin wants to be involved.
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