MOSCOW -
Russia has indicated that
an agreement on delivering nuclear fuel rods - which
can be used to obtain plutonium - could be finalized this
year. Last week, the head of Russia's nuclear energy
agency, Alexander Rumyantsev, told the Iranian ambassador
to Russia that the deal on the return of spent rods
to Russia could be clinched during his upcoming trip to
Tehran, tentatively set for October.
This
agreement was reported as close to being signed last
September, but nothing happened. The deal would open the
way for Russia's nuclear supplies to Iran. Moreover, in
October, Russia and Iran are expected to sign a protocol
of intent on the construction of Bushehr-2 reactor,
according to Russian media reports.
Russia has
said it would freeze construction on the US$1 billion
Bushehr nuclear plant and would not begin delivering
fuel rods for the reactor until Iran signed an agreement
that would oblige it to return all of the spent fuel to
Russia for reprocessing and storage. Sending the spent
fuel out of the country would ensure that Iran could not
reprocess it into material that could be used in nuclear
weapons.
According to Russia's Federal Nuclear
Energy Agency, the first power unit of the Bushehr
nuclear station is 90% ready: all heavy equipment,
including the reactor, has been brought and assembled.
The Russian agency noted that what was left to do was
"assemble and tune up control equipment as well as
control in the reactor zone".
Russia has long
been under fire for its help in building the Bushehr
nuclear plant. Russian President Vladimir Putin has
brushed off repeated US demands that it cancel the
Bushehr 1,000-megawatt light-water nuclear-reactor
project.
Last month, the head of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohammed
ElBaradei, said Russia's construction of Iran's first
nuclear reactor was "no longer at the center of
international concern". Bushehr was a bilateral project
between Russia and Iran to produce nuclear energy for
peaceful purposes, he said after talks with Putin in
Moscow.
Yet Moscow's insistence on its nuclear
deal with Tehran continues to cause lively debate
internationally as the US and Israel accuse Iran of
seeking to produce nuclear weapons. This month, US
Secretary of State Colin Powell claimed at a joint press
conference with Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom
in Washington that Iran was "pursuing nuclear-weapons
development, or worse, acquiring a nuclear weapon".
Iran's Foreign Ministry said Powell's remarks
were "a source of disgrace" for the US administration.
"The US is not following an independent policy towards
Iran's nuclear programs but instead is toeing the line
of the Zionist regime," said a ministry spokesman.
Iranian Defense Minister Admiral Ali Shamkhani
has warned that the Islamic Republic will abandon its
commitments to the IAEA if its nuclear installations are
attacked. "If there is a military attack, that would
mean that the IAEA has been collecting this information
to prepare for an attack," he said.
There has
been widespread speculation that Israel might attack
Iran's nuclear facilities, and it has reportedly
conducted military exercises for such a preemptive
strike by long-range F-15I jets, flying over Turkey. An
Israeli defense source in Tel Aviv told the London
Sunday Times that Israel would on no account permit the
Iranian Bushehr reactor to go critical. The Sunday Times
also quoted a senior US official warning of a preemptive
Israeli strike if Russia continued cooperating with the
Iranians. He said Washington was unlikely to block
Israeli attacks against Bushehr and other Iranian
targets, including a facility at Natanz, where the
Iranians have attempted to enrich uranium, and a plant
at Arak.
Under the Iranian deal with Moscow,
waste produced at the Bushehr plant containing plutonium
that could be used in bomb-making would be shipped back
to Russia for storage, but the material must first be
"cooled", providing Iran with what Washington fears
could be up to two years in which to extract the
plutonium.
Israel estimates that Iran will be
able to build a nuclear bomb by 2007, said an
intelligence report delivered to Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon in private and recently leaked in part to the
media.
A senior US official told the London
Times that the United States would take action to
overturn the regime in Iran if President George W Bush
is elected for a second term in November. The official,
speaking on condition of anonymity, told the newspaper
that Bush would provide assistance to Iran's population
to help them revolt against the ruling theocracy.
Iran has remained a sore point in Russian-US
relations, despite a new wave of cooperation after
September 11, 2001. Although Russia's insistence on its
nuclear ties with Iran seems inflammatory, to say the
least, Moscow still insists it is driven by mainly
commercial interests. Russia's nuclear executives have
claimed that "competitors" were trying to undermine
Russia's nuclear energy exports.
Obviously, the
$1 billion Bushehr reactor is a big deal for Russia
financially. But in addition the issue fuels Middle
Eastern volatility, which keeps crude-oil prices high,
something of true interest to Moscow.
Oil and
natural gas account for about one-fifth of Russia's
economy and bring more than half of its export revenue.
Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil
producer in the first five months of this year. Because
of booming exports and high crude prices, Russia's
currency reserves have reached an unprecedented $90
billion, a nearly ninefold increase in little more than
five years. Russia's private oil companies (except
embattled Yukos) are also flush with cash.
However, Russia's growth in oil output and
exports could falter next year as companies deplete
fields and pipelines run at full capacity. Therefore,
sustaining high oil and other commodity prices by any
means could be of interest to Moscow.
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