Now Karzai has a fight on his
hands By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - A week ago it seemed that
Afghan President Hamid Karzai would easily win in
the upcoming presidential election. But with Education
Minister Younis Qanooni entering the electoral fray,
Karzai might not find the race to the presidency quite
that easy.
The presidential
election is scheduled to be held on October 9. It has
been deferred twice, missing June and September deadlines
because of the poor security situation in the
country and logistical problems. The more
complex parliamentary elections have been put off until next spring to
give the government more time to disarm militias, to
improve the overall security situation in the country,
and register voters.
Altogether, 23 candidates
have registered, with the final lineup to be made known
on August 10.
The presidential election is being
hailed as an important step toward the democratization
of the country. However, there is serious concern over
how democratic the vote will be. In the south, a
resurgent Taliban movement is expected to prevent people from
voting. In vast swaths of territory, warlords will
determine whom the people will vote for. The election
cannot be free or fair with the Afghan people having to
vote in the shadow of the gun.
For many Afghans,
casting a ballot seems irrelevant. They believe that
the result of the election has been decided already in
Washington. They believe that the election is not about
determining whom the Afghans want as their leader, but
about anointing Washington's choice, Karzai, as
Afghanistan's "democratically elected president". Karzai
has led Afghanistan since the Taliban regime was ousted
in the US-led "war against terrorism" in December 2001.
Several presidential candidates maintain that
election rules clearly favor Karzai and that every
effort is being made to ensure that he returns, with the
rules of the electoral game denying candidates a level
playing field.
Under Afghanistan's election law,
all candidates must resign their public or military
posts 75 days prior to voting day. Apparently, the rule
requiring candidates to quit official posts was put in
to ensure that they do not take advantage of their
positions in government to influence voters. Karzai is,
however, exempt from this requirement, prompting many
Afghans to ask why there are no rules to ensure that he
does not misuse his authority.
Many who
had earlier indicated that they would contest
the presidential election failed to register on Monday,
the last day for contestants to file their papers.
According to election laws, a candidate has to collect
10,000 copies of voter-registration cards to demonstrate that
he or she has a minimum number of supporters. Every
candidate is also expected to pay a fee of 50,000
afghanis (about US$1,000). The date for the presidential
poll was announced on July 9. Under the election laws,
candidate registration must be completed 75 days before
voting day, which meant that aspiring candidates had to
register by July 26. This gave them only 17 days to
collect the 10,000 copies. Not surprisingly, several
candidates were unable to meet the deadline. Many of
these candidates argue that the dates were fixed to suit
Karzai and to exclude others.
On July 19,
nine presidential candidates participated in a
press conference in Kabul where they demanded amendments
to the election laws. One candidate said his main
objection was that it was drafted under the direct
supervision of Karzai. Afghans also point out that only
a microscopic minority of Afghans can afford the fee of
50,000 afghans, making the election an exclusive race
among the very rich.
It is true that Karzai
has a lot going in his favor - he enjoys the
all-important support of the Americans. But of all
Afghanistan's leaders, Karzai perhaps has the most
support in the country. A recent opinion poll conducted
by the Asia Foundation found that nationally, nearly
two-thirds (62%) of the respondents felt Karzai was
doing a "good" or "excellent" job as president. There
were strong regional differences, however. In the south,
Karzai got positive ratings from just 35%, while 46%
rated him "fair" or "poor". In the northwest, just 20%
gave him a "good" or "excellent" rating, compared with
71% describing him as "fair" or "poor".
Karzai,
the front-runner, was expected to choose Defense Minister
General Fahim Khan, a Tajik and a key Northern Alliance
leader, as his running mate. Had he done so, he would
have easily won the vote in the first round itself.
Winning support of the Northern Alliance commanders is
essential to get 51% of the votes that are needed to
avoid a run-off election.
However, serious differences
between Karzai and Khan, reportedly on the issue
of Khan having to step down from his current posts as
defense minister and vice president in order to run for
election, appear to have resulted in Karzai opting for
Ahmad Zia Masoud and Abdul Karim Khalili, both members
of the Northern Alliance, as his running mates. Masoud
is the brother of Ahmed Shah Masoud, the Tajik commander
of the Northern Alliance who was assassinated a
few days before the attacks of September 11, 2001. Abdul Rashid
Dostum, another militia leader from the north, is the
other leading rival. He has been involved in factional
fighting around the main northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif
in recent months.
Karzai also dropped Fahim,
according to some reports, under pressure from the
international community, which saw the defense minister
as an impediment to disarming the country's warlords.
Their ethnic origins notwithstanding,
neither Khalili nor Masoud has clear support of the
north. Vikram Parekh, a senior analyst with the
International Crisis Group, says this "could be seen as an
electoral liability". Besides, with Qanooni, who has
served in the past as interior minister, throwing his
hat in the ring, Karzai's election might not be as
smooth as expected. Qanooni is respected as a political
leader and he could pose a strong challenge to Karzai.
Khan is likely to throw his weight behind Qanooni to
topple the US-backed Karzai. Such a partnership will not
only make Karzai's election tougher, it also represents
a serious rift within the ruling political forces.
They have differed on various issues over the
past couple of years, especially with regard to the
disarming of the militia. Now, however, the rift is out
in the open.
Mohammed Mohaqeq, militia commander
and leader of the ethnic minority Hazara faction, has
also entered the race. Other candidates include former
veterans of the anti-Soviet war Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai and
Sayed Ishaq Gilani, and former Northern Alliance general
Adbul Hafiz Mansoor.
Another candidate, Abdul
Satar Sirat, could also emerge as a threat. A former
minister of justice and deputy vice president under
former king Zahir Shah in the 1970s, university lecturer
Sirat returned to Afghanistan after the fall of the
Taliban. Poet Adbul Latif Pedram and female doctor
Massaouda Jalal also filed their nominations.
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