Nationalist revanchism has been gaining momentum
in recent years among various political groups in Russia
and has been greeted with some sympathy from the
Kremlin. In the past, this sentiment has taken the form
of open calls for the restoration of the Soviet Union,
but recently a more provocative set of ideas have been
making the rounds in Russia.
Maksim Kalashnikov,
author of The Broken Sword of Empire (1998) and
Battle for the Heavens (2000) - books that
glorified Soviet militarism and earned him the moniker
"Russia's Tom Clancy" - gave new impetus to the
revanchist movement with the 2003 publication of
Forward to the USSR-2, a book that is subtitled
The National Idea or the Direction of the Main
Offensive. Kalashnikov's real name is Vladimir
Kucherenko, and he is a former deputy editor of the
online magazine Stringer and a journalist for
Rossiiskaya gazeta. Forward to the USSR-2 has
gone through several editions over the past 18 months
and its popularity has become widespread.
Kalashnikov's vision of USSR-2 is a version of an
unrealized scenario for the reform of the Soviet Union
that dates back to the early 1980s and that is
attributed to then KGB director Yurii Andropov. It was
later popularized by the nationalist ideologue Aleksandr
Prokhanov. "In 1980, the United States had a nightmare
in which it saw the transformation of the USSR, a
country with a clumsy socialist economy, into the smart,
aggressive, and strong-willed super corporation Red
Star," reads the cover blurb to Forward to the
USSR-2. "It might have emerged as a creature never
before seen in history, combining the most advanced
Soviet defense technologies with billions of gas dollars
and the incredible might of the Soviet secret services.
The United States did everything in its power to make
sure this scenario never materialized, but can we
realize it now?"
Kalashnikov, who has rejected
Western models of economic development for Russia,
answers a definite "yes" to this question. Those who
advocate Western liberal economics, Kalashnikov writes,
argue that if Russia follows their policies the country
will reach Western living standards within a few
decades. "However, under the conditions of
globalization, we do not have this much time,"
Kalashnikov writes.
Kalashnikov, however, also
rejects calls for the restoration of the former Soviet
system, describing the Soviet Union as "the country of
the party's miasma ... Nationalizing Russia's
old-fashioned and obsolete industry as the Communists
suggest is absolute stupidity," he writes.
Likewise, Kalashnikov rejects
economic-development models such as those pursued by
China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brazil, Mexico or
Pakistan. He argues that Russia cannot become a cheap
producer of consumer goods because it does not have a
cheap labor force, inexpensive and accessible natural
resources, or convenient means of transporting
manufactured goods to world markets. He notes that
Russian workers must pay as much on utilities and other
costs associated with surviving in Russia's harsh
climate as workers in the countries mentioned above earn
each year. This fact alone is enough to make Russian
goods non-competitive on international markets.
Kalashnikov also argues that basing the Russian
economy on the export of mineral resources is
shortsighted. He repeats the arguments that noted
military economist Andrei Parshev put forward in his
2000 book Why Russia Is Not America. In that
book, Parshev argued that once the Soviet-built economic
and transportation infrastructure is exhausted, the
extraction of Russia natural resources will become
forbiddingly expensive.
The only way for Russia
to thrive is through the dream of USSR-2, Kalashnikov
argues, urging the country to adopt several innovative
development strategies that he calls "miracles".
Kalashnikov's first miracle is financial. He
argues that it is stupid to use oil revenues to create a
stabilization fund to repay the debts racked up by
Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and former Russian
president Boris Yeltsin. Instead, Russia should sue the
West to demand the return of gold deposited in Western
banks by the czarist government during World War I.
Kalashnikov argues that Russia must make such cases
before the years 2014-17 or the government's claims will
expire.
Next, Kalashnikov calls for an
ideological miracle. He says the state must put forward
an ideology that will be broadly attractive and will
help the country avoid "suicidal clashes" with China and
Islam. Such an ideology must help the country develop
previously unthinkable alliances, such as with Saudi
Arabia, he writes.
The next step, Kalashnikov
argues, is an "ethnopsychological" miracle. He writes
that the new state cannot be created with the current
mentality of the Russian people, who he says are
"ignorant not only of national ideals, but even of their
own self-interests ... Therefore, it is necessary to
create a new nation from the remnants of the Russian
people, a new race that possesses the novel
psychological quality of seeing itself as 'a nation of
super-creators and geniuses'," Kalashnikov writes,
echoing classic Nazi-style rhetoric.
The
centerpiece of Kalashnikov's project is the
"organizational" wonder. He proposes creating a
clandestine state behind the facade of the Russian
Federation, a country he sees as "incurably ill and
destined to perish". He describes the clandestine state
as "a network that combines the features of a party, an
army, a secret service, the mafia, a church, and a
business community ... This kind of networked
brotherhood should exist alongside the official Russian
state, never openly warring with it," Kalashnikov
writes. "The brotherhood should form a strategic union
with the Russian president."
Kalashnikov argues
that such a parallel state will be able to act where the
official state cannot. Utilizing its covert status, it
will be able to operate wherever there are Russian
communities - in Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus, Central
Asia, and even Europe and the United States. One of the
first tasks of this secret state will be to regain
control over financial resources controlled by the
oligarchs and, more broadly, by the entire class of "new
Russians". "Using psychological and other special
methods, we will turn them into zombies, obedient to the
will of the secret state and investing their money where
the state tells them to," Kalashnikov writes in the
foreword to Forward to the USSR-2.
"Superficially, nothing will change and the
current business community, with its assets in Russia
and abroad, will continue to operate," Kalashnikov
writes, "but in reality, control over financial flows
will be recaptured by the secret state. In this way, we
will avoid accusations of violating civil and property
rights and other such nonsense. There will be no mass
arrests, no demonstrative transfers of confiscated money
into state funds." He writes that it is sufficient to
apply pressure successfully to one or two oligarchs in
order to bring all of them into submission.
Leaving no doubt as to whom he has in mind,
Kalashnikov writes in his latest book, Ride the
Lightning (2003), about an oligarch named Samuil
Modorkovskii and a company called Sokos, clear allusions
to embattled oil giant Yukos and its former chief
executive officer, Mikhail Khodorkovskii. Kalashnikov
describes Modorkovskii as smart and energetic, but as
someone who sees no future for Russia and who is looking
to transfer the money gained from exploiting Russia's
oil to the West. "Coercion and levers of fear should be
used" against such people, Kalashnikov writes, seeming
to justify the campaign against Khodorkovskii that was
about to unfold. "God himself allows us to fight them
with sophistication and acute cruelty."
As for
geographic expansion, Kalashnikov argues that it should
not be necessary to repeat the experience of the Soviet
Union. USSR-2 will be a "federal empire" and the states
of the South Caucasus, Ukraine and, especially, the
Central Asian republics can enter the new USSR with
their own sovereignty, legislation and currencies
intact. "We should tell our former southern republics
that friendship with the United States will bring them
no good," Kalashnikov writes. He said that while the
United States criticizes these countries for corruption
and human-rights violations, Russia will not demand any
liberalization and will not intervene into their
internal affairs.
Instead, Russia will build
military bases "that will defend both your and our
security", Kalashnikov writes. Russia will build nuclear
power plants and desalinization plants "for which you
can pay with gold and uranium". In return Russia will
ask little - "equal status" for ethnic Russians,
unfettered access for "our imperial television
channels", and a role for Russian capital in the
exploration for and exploitation of local natural
resources.
It remains uncertain exactly how
influential Kalashnikov's books and ideas actually are
in Russia's corridors of power. But it cannot be denied
that many, many pages from his books echo the most
frightening headlines in contemporary Russian news
reports. Many scenes in his books seem like the latest
breaking news from Moscow.
Victor J
Yasmann is a senior regional analyst with RFE/RL
Online and specializes in Russian and Central Eurasian
affairs, foreign policy, and international security. He
holds a master of arts in economics from the Kharkiv
Engineering Economic Institute and joined RFE/RL as a
Soviet affairs analyst in 1984.
Copyright 2004
RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission ofRadio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201
Connecticut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036.
