Russia-China relationship favors
Beijing By Yevgeny
Bendersky
Since the early 1990s, much world
attention has been fixed on the constantly evolving
relationship between the Russian Federation and the
People's Republic of China. And much has been written on
the costs and benefits of this relationship, with
current analysis seeming to favor China as one of the
leading states to emerge in the next couple of decades.
It seems that Russia will play a pivotal part in
this development through the transfer of military
high-tech knowledge and economic resources that China so
desperately needs. Constant global attention is focused
on the sale of Russian military hardware to China, as
well as on the increasing political and economic
contacts between the two.
On the surface, the
close relationship between the regional powers has often
been characterized as a counter-balance to United States
economic and military dominance. Yet the true extent of
the Sino-Russian relationship is open to many questions,
since possible areas of contention remain between the
two states. These issues simmer beneath the glossy
political surface, and may yet have a negative effect on
both countries.
A major open question is the
extent to which Russia is currently willing to
underwrite China's successful emergence as one of the
world's foremost states. As the Russian Federation sells
high-tech military items south of its border, it is
contributing to China's emergence as a powerful military
force in Eurasia - a force that some day will have a
chance to overshadow Russia's. Modern aircraft, land
systems, submarines and even space travel technology has
been sold to the Chinese for billions of dollars. This
relationship is beneficial to Russia's own arms
industry, as China is currently one of its largest
customers. Nevertheless, at the same time, even a modest
infusion of Russian military technology into China is
having an exponential effect on China's growth as a
military power. The Chinese leadership has made the
modernization of its armed forces a top priority, and
while it spends only a fraction of US military
expenditure, its efforts are producing regional results.
While the Russian government also seeks to
modernize and reform its military, its own efforts are
lagging behind China's due to the long-deteriorating
conditions of its armed forces virtually across the
board. At present, the Chinese military is well
equipped, better motivated, and well trained vis a vis
its Russian counterparts. Since China's indigenous
military industry is interested in producing
state-of-the art hardware for its armed forces, Russia's
sale of military technology is having an effect of
aiding a possible competitor to its own well-established
position in the arms export market. China is already one
of the most active arms dealers in the world. Infusing
greater amounts of Russian technology will only
accelerate this trend.
Another area of possible
contention is Chinese migration to Russia's far eastern
region. This has been a very sensitive area of
discussion for both the Russian populace and its
leadership. On the Russian side of the border, there are
around 7 million inhabitants. On the Chinese side, there
are more than 100 million. After the Soviet Union fell
apart, Russia's Far East has become an economically
depressed area. Almost a million of its inhabitants left
for other parts of Russia and the Commonwealth of
Independent States; large tracts of land and huge state
farms were abandoned. Officially, living conditions in
the Far East region are twice as bad as in any other
part of the country. Chinese migrants began to actively
move into the Far East region after 1992, taking
advantage of the absence of any viable visa controls and
the lax border patrol situation. Officially, the Russian
government puts the number of Chinese migrants at no
more than several hundred thousand. Unofficially, the
number has been estimated at several million. The real
number, as always, falls somewhere in between.
This issue is already beginning to put some
strain on the Russian government. In 2002, former
foreign minister Igor Ivanov had to publicly dismiss
reports of a massive inflow of illegal Chinese
immigrants to the Far East region, putting the number of
Chinese nationals in Russia at no more than 200,000. The
Russian media are also growing more vocal on this issue,
with coverage ranging from benign and impartial to the
provocatively foreboding.
While the media
recognize the economic benefit of a strong Chinese
business and trade-oriented community for the Russian
Far East, they point out that the true benefits of this
situation flow south to China. Chinese enterprises and
businesses, built from the strong immigrant presence on
Russia's soil, are not only selling their products back
to China - products that range from fruit and vegetables
to minerals and timber - but also are beginning to exert
strong influence on Russian businesses. Able to undercut
even cheap Russian labor, Chinese immigrants are a
source of readily available workers, capable of being
mobilized at a moment's notice. In addition,
Russia's demographic situation does not look good for
the native population. Official estimates predict either
the overall decline of the native population, or, at
best, the stabilization of the country's population at
present levels, or no more than 150 million people. On
the other hand, the Chinese population in the regions
adjacent to the Russian Far East is expected to grow.
Under these conditions, even a small-scale legal Chinese
migration to Russia will have the potential of affecting
the demographic make-up of the country. The Chinese
migrant population is soon to become the fourth largest
ethnic group in the country. Given the present absence
of migration legislation in the Far Eastern region, it
is unclear how Russia will be able to respond to a
possible increase in legal and illegal Chinese migration
to its territory.
Another area of contention
might stem from both countries' economic improvement.
Already, China's economy far outpaces Russia's,
especially in the area of foreign direct investment.
China is seen as the hot market where the government
fosters international investment. In contrast, the
enthusiasm of foreign investors in Russia has been
curbed, first by the 1998 fiscal crisis, and then by the
Russian government's erratic and repressive behavior
towards its large business enterprises, such as Yukos,
the giant oil company. As China grows economically
wealthier, it requires more resources, such as oil and
natural gas. These are located next door - in Central
Asia, where Russia has been increasing its influence -
and in Russia itself.
While the Russian
government has not had any problems with the
transformation of its economy to a largely
rentier-category, it is yet unclear how it might respond
to the soon-possible role as the supplier of natural
resources to its much wealthier neighbor. Even if Russia
exerts total economic dominance on the majority of the
former Soviet states, the overall economic output of
this entity will still lag behind China's. While China
pays for everything it gets from Russia in much-needed
hard currency, with the present benefits for the Russian
economy, the much-needed large-scale internal economic
development is absent in Russia - but it is present just
south of its border, in China's hinterland and its
dynamic eastern coast.
In the words of former
foreign minister Ivanov two years ago, present
Sino-Russian cooperation is aimed at improving security
in the region. For China, closer cooperation with Russia
means the improvement of its economy, the fulfillment of
its growing energy needs and the possible
counter-balance to US influence. Both countries can use
closer cooperation with each other as a leverage to
extract potential benefits from Washington. However,
given the present economic and demographic situation,
and given the inflow of Russia's high technology to
China, this relationship is largely one-sided, as it is
making China the stronger of the two states.
How
Russia will adapt to a possible secondary role in
Eurasian affairs in the near future is still an
unanswered question, especially given its economic,
military and political superiority over China for the
past two centuries. Will Russia be able to stand aside
as China emerges as the possible counter-balance to the
United States, or will it try to reverse that situation
by somehow checking Beijing's growing influence? These
two states may yet find themselves at odds over issues
highly sensitive to both.
Published with
permission of thePower and
Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the
globe. All comments should be directed tocontent@pinr.com
