MOSCOW
- Following President George W Bush's troop shift
announcement in the US this week, it was expected that
Russia's encirclement fears would revive, given that US
forces are to be moved closer to the Middle East and
Central Asia. But although the Kremlin's official
reaction was relatively calm, it's push for Central
Asian influence continues.
"I do not see
anything worrying in these plans," Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov stated, adding, "No grandiose
movements are expected."
Although the plan
involves US withdrawal of 70,000 troops from Europe and
Asia and major shifts would not begin before 2006, some
of the troops from Germany and South Korea reportedly
could be moved to North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) expansion countries in Eastern Europe and
possibly in Uzbekistan. Notably, Romania has air bases
within striking distance of Iraq and Central Asia.
Russia has previously expressed unease over the US
making inroads into Central Asia.
But Washington
has been careful not to antagonize Moscow. At the
Defense Department background briefing on Monday, it was
stated that the realignment was not aimed at Russia. The
US would make greater use of training and logistics
bases on the soil of new allies like Uzbekistan and
Romania, said Pentagon officials who briefed reporters
on condition of anonymity.
A senior military
official went on to say that the kind of cooperation
that develops further with Uzbekistan and others in
Central Asia depended on those countries and to what
extent they wanted to work with the US. "But we're not
looking to take forces that are otherwise in Europe
today and station them either in Eastern Europe or in
Central Asia. That's not part of our plan," the official
said.
Regardless, Moscow rarely lets its guard
down. Not enemies, but not yet allies was how Ivanov
characterized relations between Russia and the US
following two days of talks over the weekend in St
Petersburg with US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Ivanov described his attitude toward NATO's eastward
enlargement as "calmly negative", and criticized NATO's
expansion into three former Soviet states on the Baltic
Sea and warned that NATO warplanes flying patrols over
those countries create the risk of accidental incidents.
The patrols are flown by four NATO fighter jets
because the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and
Estonia have no air forces of their own. Ivanov,
speaking at a news conference with Rumsfeld, questioned
the need for the patrols. "We cannot understand how
these four planes can intercept al-Qaeda, the Taliban or
anything else," Ivanov said. "The only thing they can
intercept is a mythical Soviet threat."
Yet
despite the US's official pronouncements that the troop
realignment is not aimed at Russia, Moscow will likely
remain keen to secure Central Asia. As the heads of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a six-member group
that includes Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, met at a summit meeting in
Tashkent last June, Russian President Vladimir Putin
made no secret that Moscow has been pushing to use a
variety of groupings so as to exert its influence across
the region. "The voice of Russia will be heard here,"
Putin told reporters after the summit.
Subsequently, Russia has recently moved to push
its agenda in Central Asia through security
arrangements. Notably, the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) held a large-scale military exercise
on August 2-6. The Collective Rapid Reaction Force,
including troops from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan, held anti-rebel war-games in the Kyrgyz
mountains.
The exercise, code named
"Frontier-2004", involved more than 2,000 soldiers from
Russia and the three Central Asian members. The
maneuvers took place at the Kyrgyz Defense Ministry's
Edelweiss mountainous training center near the town of
Balykchi on the shores of Lake Issykul. Jets and
helicopters from the new Russian air base in Kant struck
targets in northern Kyrgyzstan for the first time.
The war-games scenario, approved by the CSTO,
involved the deployment of Russian elite troops.
According to Russian media reports, units of the
Ulyanovsk-based 31st Paratrooper Brigade as well as the
Samara-based 3rd Special Force Brigade, as well as the
12th Special Force Brigade of Russia's military
intelligence (GRU) were brought from Ulyanovsk and
Yekaterinburg to Russia's Kant base in Kyrgyzstan by
Il-76MD military cargo planes.
Politicians
insisted the war-games were largely anti-terrorist.
Following the exercise, Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev
said the CSTO also is considering pre-emptive operations
in Afghanistan, but gave no details. "We don't have to
wait for militants from Afghanistan to cross the
Afghan-Tajik border, but we should take preventive
measures rather than allow them to come to the region,"
Akayev said.
"The situation in Central Asia is
stable, but we don't rule out terrorist attacks in
Afghanistan or any other countries in the region,"
Ivanov said earlier this month in the wake of the war
games. Moscow also indicated plans to double the number
of troops stationed at the Kant based by the end of this
year.
Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan may become
Russia's major military and political ally in Central
Asia, the country's foreign minister, Askar Aitmatov,
indicated last week. "Russia remains a true friend and
the principal strategic partner of Kyrgyzstan. Long-term
relations with Russia are the priority of our foreign
policy," Aitmatov said in a speech at the Russian Kant
air base during Russian Air Force Day celebrations. "The
opening of the Russian air base in October last year
became an indication that Russian-Kyrgyz relations are
relations between allies," he said.
Moscow has
also been keen to boost military ties with Uzbekistan.
For instance, Russia and Uzbekistan agreed to hold major
joint war games in southern Uzbekistan later this year,
Ivanov announced last June.
The Kremlin has
recently come up with a series of overtures towards
Uzbekistan, once seen as the US's staunchest ally in
Central Asia. It was hardly a coincidence that on
Tuesday, Russia announced it had apprehended three men
suspected of helping to organize a series of bombings in
Uzbekistan earlier this year and may extradite them to
their homeland for trial. The three suspects are
reportedly linked to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
In the meantime, regardless of Washington's
assurances that its troop redeployment is not aimed at
Russia, Moscow's perceived strategic purpose remains to
strengthen its influence in Central Asia. However, the
new security arrangements are yet to prove their
viability as vehicles of Moscow's clout in the strategic
region.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia
and post-Soviet states, with special attention to
Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times
Online since 1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based
in Southeast Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science
Publishers, NY, published two of his books on Vietnamese
history.
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