MOSCOW
- The Kremlin has finally committed to the idea that
Chechen extremists, with possible foreign terrorist
connections, downed two Russian passenger airliners last
week. What Russia's security forces may or may not prove
in their investigations is unclear, given conclusions
concerning past terrorist attacks.
However,
irrespective of the findings, the Kremlin may start on a
new offensive against terrorism that may see changes in
how Russia fights terrorism, and a probable renewed
anti-terrorist alliance with the United States.
High profile acts of terrorism change how
governments and their leaders see the world. The tragic
events of September 11, 2001 altered America more than
any event since the attack on Pearl Harbor. Russia is no
different, though with nuances. President Vladimir Putin
has been slow to make any dramatic changes in the two
Soviet-era institutions from which he derives important
political support - the security forces and the
military.
Both have served him well politically,
but in terms of fighting the high priority issue of
terrorism, the results are mixed at best. Large and
small terrorist acts continue to be committed in Russia
and the conflict in Chechnya is nothing more than a
grinding war of attrition. The security forces and
the military have not failed Putin, though neither has
made him shine at home or aboard. The tragic loss of two
civilian airliners and the lives of 89 people may give
him an opening to change this.
There is every
indication that Putin ordered the security forces to
admit that the loss of the two planes was indeed an act
of terrorism. The electronic media was way ahead of the
Kremlin on this issue. The fact that two planes were
lost at almost same time without invoking the
possibility of terrorism was a coincidence that insulted
the intelligence of the average Russian. Putin, probably
with the botched Kremlin public relations reaction to
loss of the nuclear submarine Kursk early in his
presidency in mind, decided to appear as open as
possible. Putin gave his subordinates a day to get their
story straight - then informed them of how the plot
would continue.
Others have speculated on who
organized and carried out the destruction of the two
planes and all lives aboard, as well as for what
specific purpose. In the larger scheme of things,
exactly who committed this crime may not be overly
important. The fact that terrorist acts are believed to
have been committed is what is now at issue. In much the
same way Putin called his American counter on September
11, Putin may now re-address how Russia fights domestic
and international terrorism and ask the man he called as
the World Trade Center and the Pentagon burned for
advice. This call will most likely be gladly listened to
in Washington.
Putin's decision to come clean on
the loss of the two planes may be a sign of a policy
design he has been considering for a while. First, the
security forces are being remarkably efficient in
breaking the back of erstwhile oligarchs challenging the
Kremlin's control of the economy and delivering the
crown jewel of the oil sector, Yukos, to state control.
The security forces' success in war-torn Chechnya has
not been as successful. Militant Chechen and related
terrorist acts remain a stain on the forces completely
devoted to the president and his policy agendas.
Second, the military has largely distanced
itself from current operations in Chechnya. The first
Chechen war bloodied its nose; control of the second war
was gladly given over to the security forces. However,
that change in control has not changed the mindset of
the military. This all may change. The recent shake-up
in the military's command structure creates an opening
for Putin to re-assert his Defense Ministry's vision of
a military that is modern, small, highly motivated,
disciplined, and most importantly, effective. The
security forces really blew it when they could not stop
terrorists boarding planes last week. Ivanov's changing
military will most probably claim it can now do better.
Further, with Putin coming clean, it
demonstrates that he again is on the political
offensive. Issues that he believes to be Russia-
specific, like the Yukos affair, remain that - meaning
off-limits for foreigners to pass judgment. Terrorism is
an entirely different issue. Calling a terrorist act for
what it is also reassures Russians that the world the
Kremlin wants them to know about in the electronic media
is in sync with reality.
Concerning the US and
its "war against terrorism", President George W Bush and
Putin are strange political bedfellows, but given events
both have every reason to find common political cause.
More often now American and Russia foreign policy
objectives meet, be it the rumor that Russia may support
America's war effort in Iraq by supplying 40,000 troops;
establishing a long-term energy strategy (irrespective
of the short-term consequences of what is called the
"Yukos affair"); a joint effort dealing with Iranian and
Chinese activist foreign policies; as well as Russia's
openness to the establishment of a large American
military presence in Central Asia to combat Islamic
militancy.
Like September 11 was a wake-up call
for the US, the loss of two passenger planes to
terrorism last week may be a wake-up call for Putin. The
way Russia has fought terrorism (domestic and
international) has been less than effective. Putin now
has the opportunity shake up his own security and
military establishments to not only fight a more modern
war against international terrorism, but also to create
a truly meaningful trans-Atlantic front in this
struggle.
Peter Lavelle is an
independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of the
electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" -
untimely-thoughts.com.
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