PRAGUE
- The 18 candidates in Afghanistan's first direct
presidential election on October 9 officially launched
their campaigns on Tuesday, and three key issues already
have emerged: enhancing security, reducing poverty and
speeding up reconstruction.
Some experts say the
electoral process itself is an issue that could impact
the success of Afghanistan's post-Taliban reforms. "The
best-case scenario is that these elections usher in a
new politics for Afghanistan and delegitimize the old
politics of Afghanistan," said Andrew Wilder, director
of the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit - an
independent, Kabul-based research group that is studying
the country's transformation to democracy. "But the
worst-case scenario, however, is that the elections are
viewed as deeply flawed - losers cry 'foul', engage in
destabilization efforts - and the actual elections
themselves end up not being viewed as credible or
legitimate."
Hamid Karzai, the internationally
backed leader of the Afghan Transitional Administration,
is widely considered the frontrunner. Karzai said
security issues - both within Afghanistan and along its
borders - form a major theme in his campaign. "If people
elect me, then my government will create such an
Afghanistan that is able to stand on its own feet and
should have its own army and its own police," Karzai
said. "It should be able to defend its own territory so
that no country - a neighbor or any other country - can
look at Afghanistan with bad intentions."
Political analysts say it remains unclear
whether Karzai - an ethnic Pashtun - will get support
from the majority of voters he needs for an outright
victory in the first round on October 9. That's because
the vote will be divided between Karzai and 17 other
candidates who represent different ethnic groups and
factional interests. If no candidate secures a
first-round majority, a second-round vote between the
top two finishers is expected in November.
Karzai's strongest challenger is thought to be
Yunus Qanooni. He had been the interior minister in
Karzai's first interim administration and resigned as
the education minister in Karzai's current cabinet in
order to run for the presidency. Qanooni is an ethnic
Tajik who has substantial support in the Panjshir Valley
- a former stronghold of resistance against both the
Taliban regime and the Soviet occupation. He also has
strong support among the rank-and-file members of the
Interior Ministry.
Another significant candidate
is General Abdul Rashid Dostum - the Uzbek militia
commander based in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif.
Dostum changed sides frequently during Afghanistan's
wars in the past three decades. He fought on the side of
Soviet forces before joining the mujahideen during the
1980s and 1990s. His private militia also received US
military support in late 2001 as a key faction of the
anti-Taliban coalition formerly known as the United
Front (aka Northern Alliance).
Candidate
Mohammad Mohaqeq is a leader of the Hazara ethnic
minority. He has wide support in parts of northern and
central Afghanistan. Mohaqeq also fought against the
Soviets in the 1980s. He was a vice president in
Karzai's first interim administration but was sacked
from that post in 2002. He was sacked from his post as
the minister of planning in March.
Mas'uda Jalal
is the only woman running for president. She is an
ethnic Tajik who rose to prominence when she came in
second at the emergency loya jirga (tribal
council) in 2002 that confirmed Karzai's current
administration. Although Jalal already has attracted
much attention from the international media, political
analysts predict she will have more difficulty getting
votes from conservative Afghans.
Jalal said in a
campaign speech that she is the candidate who can do the
most for Afghan women: "If I succeed in the election, it
will be a success for all of you Afghan women and all
those people who have suffered in the past."
In
a joint report issued earlier this week, the United
Nations and the Afghan Independent Human Rights
Commission warned that the electoral process could be
seriously undermined by the lack of security across the
country.
The report said intimidation of both
voters and candidates by warlords, Taliban and Islamic
extremists could hurt the election's chances for
success. It also warned that a lack of information and
understanding among Afghans about democratic elections -
especially in rural areas - contributes to the risk of
election manipulation.
More than 10 million
people have registered as voters. The ballot is the
final step of the post-Taliban democratic reforms known
as the Bonn Process.
Copyright (c) 2004,
RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio
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