MOSCOW - The decision by the Russian government to
ratify the Kyoto Protocol is being widely seen as
Moscow's strategy to benefit from emissions-quota trading and
secure European Union support for its bid to enter the
World Trade Organization (WTO). With Russia joining
the protocol, aimed at curbing greenhouse-gas emissions,
there will be enough signatories for it to become a
United Nations treaty subject to international law.
Kyoto
ratification by Russia will be discussed at
the Russia-EU summit on November 11, Prime Minister Mikhail
Fradkov has said, adding that Russia would not use
the issue as a bargaining chip in relations with the European
Union. But many in the Russian media think otherwise,
commenting that Moscow moved to back Kyoto yielding to
European pressure.
But the government's stand on
ratification notwithstanding, there still seems to be
some consternation over backing it even within the
administration. Russia's plans to double its gross
domestic product in the next decade could become
impossible if it implements Kyoto, says Andrei
Illarionov, economic adviser to President Vladimir
Putin. Illarionov has been lobbying hard against the
pact, saying that the protocol is based on the
ridiculous interventionist policies. He even compares it
to fascism and is convinced that the cost of Kyoto will
outweigh the environmental benefits for Russia.
The Kremlin's Kyoto endorsement is seen as
virtually certain to be ratified by the Russian
parliament. But the Federation Council, the upper
chamber of parliament, may not rubber-stamp the deal,
say some deputies. The members who represent the
country's aluminum and energy businesses in parliament
are opposed to ratifying the treaty, Oganes Oganian -
head of the Federation Council's committee for economic
policy - was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency.
Moscow has some specific economic interests
not exactly in line with the Kyoto treaty. For instance,
it has mulled greater exploitation of the country's
vast coal reserves, estimated at 3,000 billion tons - nearly
a third of the world's coal deposits. This policy
could clash with Moscow's commitments to reduce carbon-dioxide
emissions under Kyoto.
Signed in 1997 in Kyoto,
Japan, the protocol to the UN Convention on Climate
Change became known as the Kyoto Protocol. Under the
treaty, industrialized countries pledged to reduce
emissions of carbon dioxide and methane by 2012 by 5%
from 1990 levels to combat global warming. The Kyoto
Protocol comes into effect when nations that account for
55% of the 1990 emissions levels ratify the treaty. The
EU, other European states and Japan - which are the
protocol's supporters - account for 39%. The US walked
away from the protocol. But ratification by Russia,
whose share is 17.4%, would ensure life for Kyoto.
This is not the first time that Russia has
indicated throwing its weight behind Kyoto. Almost three
years ago, Putin said Russia was "inclined" to approve
the protocol. In 2002, the then Russian prime minister
Mikhail Kasyanov told the World Summit on Sustainable
Development in South Africa that "ratification would
take place in the very near future".
But in April
this year, the Duma, the lower house of parliament,
rejected the treaty. The parliament said the
ratification was pointless since there would no longer
be a US market for pollution quotas that Russia could
have sold under Kyoto. "Ratification is inexpedient
given the US pullout and the non-participation of many
countries with high levels of emissions," said the
Duma's ecology, economy and international affairs
committee in a statement.
Though
parliament must formally ratify the pact, a final decision
on the protocol seems to rest with Putin, who
committed the country to ratification in May. After a summit
with the EU, Russian authorities had then indicated that
the country would ratify Kyoto in exchange for the EU's
approval of Russia's WTO bid.
The Kyoto deal has
been stalled since 2001, when the United States rejected it. The
US argued that the protocol's requirements were too expensive
to implement. President George W Bush rejected the pact
in March 2001, saying the tough regulations would
adversely affect the country's economy. The US is the
largest producer of carbon-dioxide emissions, accounting for some
35% of the world total. Moscow's move toward Kyoto
ratification thus came as a blow to the Bush
administration, which had been pressuring Russia not to
ratify.
Russia previously expected to benefit
financially from the treaty. Kyoto supporters have
tentatively agreed to set up a market where countries
can sell unused pollution quotas to nations that pollute
more than the permissible limit. The trade in emission
quotas is designed to reward clean industries and serve
as an incentive for the dirty ones to invest in
environment-friendly technologies. Russia could sell
roughly one-quarter of its 17.4% quota under the pact.
In a global emissions-trading system that
includes the US, Russia had hoped to gain up to $4
billion a year by selling emission quotas. Point Carbon,
a Norway-based consultancy, has said Russia could earn
up to $10 billion from selling quotas on the carbon
market. Point Carbon estimates the financial value of
the European carbon market at $12 billion a year by
2007.
The decision by the Russian government to
ratify the Kyoto Treaty could thus kick-start a
multibillion-dollar global emissions-trading industry.
But the US withdrawal was a blow to the Russian emission
quota trade plans as the superpower was expected to be a
major buyer in the quota market. Without its
participation, many hold, Russia's quota value may drop
to several hundred million dollars.
The European
media hype over Russia's endorsement of the Kyoto
Protocol has somewhat overshadowed these details. But
that the deal is not etched in stone for Russia yet was
evident in the wording of Fradkov, who in a recent
statement said the treaty would be submitted to the
parliament for ratification only after the government
receives "further clarification of the plan". Even Putin
is yet to come up with an official statement backing
Kyoto.
Given the nature of Russian politics
and its past flip-flops on Kyoto, it's still early days
to say the pact will definitely materialize this
year. There is every possibility that Moscow may come up
with new preconditions, and repeat the old story.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states,
with special attention to Asia-related issues.
He has contributed to Asia Times Online since
1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast
Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers,
New York, published two of his books on Vietnamese
history.
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