WASHINGTON - As Afghans prepare
for their first presidential elections on October 9,
President Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun, is being challenged
by over a dozen factional leaders, but most Afghans and
international officials expect him to win.
Those
who represent tribal blocs are likely just creating
political capital for themselves to barter for positions
in a future Karzai cabinet, said John Sifton, an
Afghanistan researcher with Human Rights Watch.
"Much of the political pressure and threats
reported here may in fact merely be part of efforts by
factions to create malleable factional voting blocs,
which the factions can then deliver for Karzai on
election day - for a price," said Sifton. The worry,
therefore, is not that the election will descend into
violence, but that Karzai will enjoy a "hollow victory
in which he is forced to appoint an unrepresentative
cabinet, similar to the current one - a body stocked
with warlords".
Undoubtedly, Karzai's opponents'
success will hinge on the size of their clans. Yunus
Qanooni, a prominent Tajik in the Northern Alliance -
which helped US forces overthrow the Taliban in 2001 -
has the backing of Defense Minister Mohammed Fahim, who
was dropped by Karzai as his running mate.
Another key contender, Abdul Rashid Dostum, an
Uzbek, in July stepped down as military advisor to
Karzai.
Dr Masooda Jalal, a Tajik
pediatrician-turned-politician, is Karzai's lone female
challenger. "The people of Afghanistan are fed up with
constant wars and want a fresh start," Jalal said in a
phone interview from her home in Kabul. What sets her
apart from her opponents, she said, is that "I don't
have blood on my hands, I haven't destroyed any cities."
She is confident that "if the process were democratic
and free from the interference of warlords and their
money, I could say that I would triumph in the
election".
With US forces mired in the
insurgency in Iraq, analysts say President George W Bush
is eager to portray a foreign policy success before he
goes up for re-election on November 2. With the harsh
winter and the Islamic holy month of Ramadan drawing
close, October was the obvious time to hold an election
in Afghanistan.
US Deputy Secretary of State
Richard Armitage has predicted that the Taliban "and
other insurgents will continue to disrupt the process,
perhaps even by attempting a large-scale attack on
election day itself". He lauded Karzai's efforts to rein
in the warlords, saying the Afghan leader had shown
"political courage and determination".
"It may
well be that these factional leaders are starting to
accept that their future lies within the framework of
the Afghan constitution," Armitage told the House
International Relations Committee.
Some members
of the panel were skeptical. "Did you fail to give the
president a briefing that the Taliban is still in
existence and still very much active in Afghanistan?"
asked New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez.
Menendez said a fear of violence was keeping
candidates from campaigning, Karzai was largely confined
to Kabul, and that Afghans continued to be intimidated
by the Taliban. "I think we have to stop sugarcoating
the realities of what is happening in Afghanistan ...
and be honest with the American people," he said.
Afghanistan's diverse factions of warlords, who
fought a bloody civil war in the early 1990s, are by no
means easy allies. "Political repression and military
factionalism are still very much a problem, and comprise
a very real threat to Afghanistan's future, a bigger
threat than the Taliban," said Sifton.
Brad
Adams, Asia director of Human Rights Watch, said, "Most
Afghans involved in politics on the ground are primarily
afraid of warlords and their factions, much more than
they're afraid of the Taliban."
A volatile and
uncertain security situation, compounded by the presence
of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan, has
cramped the style of most presidential candidates.
"There are candidates who cannot walk around Kabul
without security guards," said Jalal in an oblique
reference to Karzai, who is always escorted by a small
army of American and Afghan guards.
In September
2002, Karzai narrowly escaped an assassination attempt
in the southern city of Kandahar. Last month, insurgents
fired a rocket at the president's helicopter.
Even as Armitage assured members of Congress
that the US had made a "long-term commitment to
Afghanistan", Sifton pointed out that as the leader in
the international effort in Afghanistan, the US has led
incoherently. "US strategy over the last two years has
been divided into two dominant efforts. First, vaguely
defined military operations to kill or capture remnants
of the Taliban and non-Afghan militant groups; and
second, assistance to help strengthen the government of
President Karzai and help to reconstruct the Afghan
nation," he said. "In execution, these goals have often
been at cross-purposes, and in many cases the means
employed to reach the goals have been insufficient,
inappropriate, or contradictory."
According to a
recent Human Rights Watch report, this dual strategy has
proven mutually contradictory, such as when the US
cooperates with or provides assistance to regional
warlords who interfere with national development
programs or otherwise oppose Kabul's authority.
Efforts to strengthen the government of
Afghanistan, and support Karzai's efforts to rein in
factions, are clearly suffering heavily, the report
says. "US personnel are cooperating and even supporting
warlord leaders like Hazrat Ali in Jalalabad, General
Dostum and Commander Atta in Mazar-i-Sharif, and General
Fahim in Kabul - even as the central government attempts
to rein them in." This strategy is "self-defeating",
said Sifton.
"The process of disarmament,
demobilization and reintegration is progressing, albeit
slowly, with all heavy weapons now cantoned in Kabul,"
Armitage said.
Terrorist elements are not the
only security challenge the fledgling government will
face, he said. "There is also a serious and growing
narcotics trafficking problem. One year ago, this was
considered a secondary concern, but today, President
Karzai and other Afghan officials say that the drug
trade and the associated corruption may be the most
significant threats to a secure and democratic
Afghanistan."
Armitage admitted there was "a
direct link between drug trafficking and the militants
and recalcitrant warlords who seek to undermine the
central government".
House International
Relations Committee chairman Henry Hyde, said: "Waiting
to take on the drug lords will not make the situation
any better. For now, the drug lords are getting
stronger, faster than the Afghan authorities are being
built up. In other words, we are falling further and
further behind." As a consequence, throughout provinces
outside Kabul, these "drug lords" and remnants of past
Afghan military forces are strengthening their grip on
political power.
Faced with death threats,
politically active Afghan leaders are opting out of the
process or toning down their activities. "In many areas,
voters have been told by regional commanders how to
vote, and will likely obey," said Sifton.
"The
signs are ominous," said Adams. "Many candidates for
next year's [national] elections are already facing
threats, and may shelve their candidacies for fear of
being killed. The Afghan government and its
international allies have to act fast. What's needed is
a significantly increased international security force
and UN human rights monitors."
Both Armitage and
Hyde applauded voter registration statistics in
Afghanistan. Noting that 10 million Afghans had
registered to vote, Armitage said more than 40% of those
who have registered are women - "a percentage
considerably greater than we expected".
But
Sifton said there is "widespread multiple/fraudulent
registration, so the numbers are highly unreliable."
"Afghanistan is not democratic," said Jalal. "If
the situation continues, it will give democracy a bad
reputation. It will turn elections into a sham." She
complained that the Bush administration's support for
Karzai had also dashed hopes for a level playing field
in the election. "How can we call the results of such an
election democratic? How can we say it represents the
will of the people," she asked.
Hyde cautioned
Washington must be careful to avoid the impression "that
the United States has been more concerned with the
outcome of the upcoming presidential elections in
Afghanistan, than it has been with supporting a
meaningful electoral process for the Afghan people".
"US goals for a stable and independent
Afghanistan could be undermined if there are perceptions
that the United States has played a heavy hand in
Afghan's domestic political decision making process," he
added.
Ashish Kumar Sen is a
Washington DC-based journalist.
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