KABUL - United Nations election
officials in Afghanistan say October 30 is their target
date for releasing the final official results from the
October 9 presidential election - that is, provided one
of the 18 candidates wins the 50% needed for outright
victory in the first round.
Julian Type, an
adviser on international election operations with the
UN-Afghan Joint Electoral Management Body (JEMB), told
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that November 20 is
being considered as a possible date for a runoff vote if
no candidate wins in the first round. President Hamid
Karzai is widely expected to win the polls, although he
faces stiff opposition from Yunus Qanooni, a prominent
Tajik in the Northern Alliance - which helped US forces
overthrow the Taliban in 2001 - who has the backing of
Defense Minister Mohammed Fahim, who was dropped by
Karzai as his running mate.
"If that's the case,
the law requires the runoff election to be held within
two weeks of the announcement of the result of the first
round - which would mean that the JEMB would probably
delay the official announcement of the result of the
first round until November 6. That would not, however,
in most cases, prevent a clear picture of the results of
the first round from emerging. The results will be
posted progressively as they become available," Type
said.
Type said that a second round would
require new ballots to be distributed to more than
21,500 polling stations. That process already has proven
difficult in rugged parts of Afghanistan, with officials
using camels and donkeys to get to the most remote
places. Meanwhile, Type said 120,000 local Afghans are
being trained this week to administer the nationwide
poll.
US-led coalition forces have increased
patrol flights around the country in recent days. A US
spokesman for the coalition, Major Scott Nelson,
confirmed the flights are part of a "show of force"
designed to discourage attacks by the Taliban, al-Qaeda
or Afghan militia fighters.
"For the elections,
we are significantly ramping up our security
capabilities. That includes aviation support - both A-10
[attack planes] and helicopters throughout the country.
[The North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led
International Security Assistance Force] ISAF is doing
the same thing, as well as, in support of the Ministry
of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior, with Afghan
National Police and Afghan National Army soldiers. All
of this is coordinated in concert with the UN's [Joint
Electoral Management Body] on how we support and secure
the election process for October 9," Nelson said.
The 48,000 officers of the Afghan National
Police are the only people allowed to carry weapons
within 500 meters of polling stations. Just outside that
area, a combination of Afghan National Army troops and
local officials will carry out patrols.
The
"area security" beyond the army's zone of control
includes local authorities as well as some 20,000 troops
in the US-led coalition. Another 9,000 members of the
UN-mandated ISAF also are involved.
The UN's
election security chief is John McComber. He said the
greatest threat is any activity that scares voters away
from casting ballots on October 9. Concerns include solo
attacks by the Taliban or in conjunction with fighters
of militia commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, as well as by
al-Qaeda-linked groups. McComber also acknowledged
concerns that private militias linked to some candidates
might try to intimidate voters.
"There's
potential. But there's much greater potential for other
forms of intimidation from the traditional threat groups
- Taliban, Hekmatyar's people, others. Is that on going
now? Yes it is - the campaign of night letters. Those
agents moving amongst villages trying to influence
through threatening people or otherwise. So it's not
just a question of intimidation potential of Afghan
militia. We've had the same allegations [of
intimidation] made against Afghan police," McComber
said.
McComber said he expects militia forces to
be prevalent in parts of northern Afghanistan that have
the fewest number of international troops or trained
members of the Afghan army and police.
Fighters
loyal to the ethnic Uzbek presidential candidate,
General Abdul Rashid Dostum, hold sway over much of
those areas. Most of Dostum's fighters refuse to
participate in internationally backed disarmament
programs. In areas more than a half-kilometer from the
polls or vote-counting houses, Dostum's militia is being
tolerated as an unavoidable reality on the ground.
But McComber distanced the UN-backed security
program from Dostum's fighters. "The bottom line is,
they are there. They are, every day, performing a search
and security function," he said. "But we are not linking
them to the election security plan. They will carry on
doing what they do essentially in support of the local
police. But no direct link to us."
McComber also
expects militia groups that are nominally linked to
Defense Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim to be posted in
areas beyond the control of the Afghan National Police
and Afghan National Army.
"There are some Afghan
militia forces working directly with Ministry of
Defense. That's a fact. Some of those are acting in this
area a security role. You won't see them at polling
centers. You won't see them at counting houses. In fact,
most you won't even see on the roads. Those that are
here are, for instance, sitting on the mountain tops
around Kabul doing what they always do," McComber said.
McComber concluded that it is possible - even
probable - that some militia fighters have been hired
individually either as poll workers or as local security
officers. But he stresses that the UN's security plans
do not include any complete Afghan militia units.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted
with the permission of Radio
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