On Saturday, October
9, 2004, Afghanistan holds its first-ever direct
presidential ballot. The election is a major step in the
post-Taliban democratic reforms known as the Bonn
process.
Who will vote? About
10.5 million Afghans are registered for the election.
Women make up 41% of registered voters. Afghan refugees
living in Pakistan and Iran are expected to represent
10% of all votes cast. The United Nations, which is
organizing the polls, says there have been many multiple
registrations. Voters will have their fingers marked
with indelible ink on election day in an attempt to
prevent multiple voting. Actual turnout is expected to
be closer to 6 million.
Who are the
candidates? There are 16 contenders out of an
initial 18 registered candidates. The incumbent, Afghan
Transitional Administration chairman Hamid Karzai, an
ethnic Pashtun, is widely considered the front-runner.
Karzai's strongest challenger is expected to be Yunus
Qanooni, an ethnic Tajik. Other key candidates include
Uzbek commander Abdul Rashid Dostum; Mohammed Mohaqiq, a
leader of the Hazara minority; and Mas'uda Jalal, the
only female candidate.
When will results be
available? Partial results are expected by
the middle of next week - around Wednesday, October 13. A candidate
must receive more than 50% of the votes in order to win
a first-round victory. If no candidate wins a
clear majority on Saturday, there will be a runoff between
the two leading candidates. The runoff would likely be
held in November.
Karzai is expected to win, but
the large number of candidates may make it difficult for
him to win in the first round. A runoff could give
Taliban rebels and other Islamic militants more
opportunities to disrupt the democratic process in
Afghanistan. Regional warlords who oppose a centralized
government are also seen as a threat to peaceful
elections. A runoff could also compromise Karzai's
authority and give him less freedom in selecting his
cabinet.
Will the vote be safe?
Militants and other elements have vowed to
disrupt polling. At least a dozen election workers have
died so far in a string of attacks. Security issues are
considered most pressing in the country's south and
southeast. Some 18,000 US-led troops in Afghanistan
battling militants will participate in securing the
vote.
Another 9,000 North Atlantic Treaty
Organization-commanded soldiers in the International
Security Assistance Force, will patrol in the capital,
Kabul, and much of the north. They, together with some
60,000 Afghan police and troops will be fanning out to
protect the roughly 5,000 polling stations throughout
the country.
What are the issues?
Ethnicity is likely to be a crucial factor in
most Afghan votes. Widespread illiteracy and limited
campaigning by the candidates means few Afghans are
familiar with all 16 candidates or their political
platforms. But general issues of concern include
improving security, reducing poverty, and speeding
reconstruction.
Copyright (c) 2004, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington, DC 20036
Oct 9, 2004
No
material from Asia Times Online may be republished in any form without written
permission.
Copyright
2003, Asia Times Online, 4305 Far East Finance Centre, 16 Harcourt Rd,
Central, Hong Kong
