PRAGUE - Final official results from
Afghanistan's presidential election confirm that
transitional leader Hamid Karzai won the support of 55%
of voters in the country - nearly 40 percentage points
more than his closest rival, ethnic Tajik former
education minister Mohammad Yunus Qanooni.
Qanooni told reporters on Thursday that he
accepts the results, despite lingering accusations of
fraud, because it is in Afghanistan's national interest
for him to do so.
"I'm sure that if we don't
recognize the results of the election and we question
the legitimacy of this vote after the [official]
declaration of the results, the country will go through
a crisis. And the crisis will be because of
confrontations between the supporters of different
candidates. Their arguments and political positions will
lead, in the end, to war and military clashes and ethnic
tension," Qanooni said.
Karzai's other top
rivals - ethnic Uzbek commander Abdul Rashid Dostum and
ethnic Hazara leader Mohammed Mohaqeq - also announced
that they recognize the results.
The
developments come after an independent panel of
investigators, set up by the UN-Afghan Joint Electoral
Management Body, said that the outcome of the race had
not been altered by problems with the indelible ink
meant to stop voters from casting multiple ballots.
Craig Jenness - a former Canadian diplomat - is
one of the three investigators on that panel. "There
were fewer problems on election day than many experts
had anticipated. The most publicized problem -
misapplication of indelible ink - took place in many,
although probably not the majority of, polling centers.
This was the result of technical and administrative
failures. There was no political motive. Most
importantly, it did not result in significant numbers of
multiple [votes]," Jenness said.
The focus of
political observers in Afghanistan is now shifting to
the next step in the forming of a government. Karzai -
an ethnic Pashtun - must name his cabinet choices before
his inauguration ceremony at the end of November.
Karzai pledged during the election campaign that
he would not have a cabinet of warlords. But Vikram
Parekh, a Kabul-based researcher for the International
Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that the official results
could make it difficult for Karzai to keep that
promise.
"On the one hand, [Karzai] won with a
large margin over his nearest challenger. But I think
the really significant thing about this election is how
much it reveals about the divisions that remain in the
country - particularly ethnically and regionally. And
although [Karzai] did well in urban areas of the north
and west, on the balance it looks like, in rural areas,
the bulk of the people voted for individuals who he
would like to exclude from his next cabinet.
Consequently, I think he is going to have a harder time
[leaving those people out of his cabinet]. Most of the
people who might have worn the tag of 'warlord' before
will now be able to say, legitimately: 'We represent our
people. We represent Uzbeks or Hazaras or Tajiks'. So
[Karzai] may not have quite the free hand that he had
hoped to get," Parekh said.
Parekh said he
thinks talks are already taking place in Kabul about a
possible coalition cabinet that could include
representatives from some of Karzai's rivals, such as
Qanooni or Dostum.
"There was a list printed in
one of the major Kabul dailies two days ago with a
tentative list of cabinet members - apparently leaked
from the office of Karzai's running mate, [the ethnic
Tajik] Ahmed Zia Massoud. This list of cabinet
allocations was essentially overwhelmingly Pashtun. I
think it probably represents something more that some
people in Karzai's circle might want to see rather than
something that is actually achievable. Simultaneously,
there are reports about ongoing talks with Qanooni, with
Dostum. There is still probably an intensive negotiating
process going on. You have various scenarios [for the
next cabinet] - one in which you would have some former
Northern Alliance personalities and another in which
they would be excluded," Parekh said.
Karzai's
aides deny that the newly elected president is making
any overtures about a coalition cabinet. But one senior
Afghan government official told RFE/RL on condition of
anonymity that there may be fewer changes from the
current transitional cabinet than expected.
Still, several current cabinet members are
expected to be forced out of the government by technical
requirements under the new Afghan constitution. One
requirement is that each Afghan minister must have a
university degree. Qanooni, Mohaqeq, and current Defense
Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim do not have such a degree.
Parekh says the test for Karzai will be his
ability to push ahead with internationally backed
programs aimed at demobilizing and disarming the militia
fighters of Afghan warlords. "A 55% majority, in which
the bulk of that is Pashtun votes, is not going to be
something that - in practice - is going to really give
[Karzai] the mandate to go after militia leaders and get
them to comply with the [disarmament, demobilization and
reintegration] program. He is almost certainly going to
have to make an overture to at least one of the
opposition camps - and do this at the same time as
staying true to his campaign pledge of excluding
warlords. It's going to be a very difficult balancing
act," Parekh said.
But Afghan experts say the
legal mandate Karzai received by winning more than 50%
of the vote is all the authority he needs to push ahead
with militia disarmament. Among them is Mohammad Musa
Maroofi, a professor of Afghan law who was a member of
the commission that drafted Afghanistan's current
constitution.
"Now, what is important is what
will happen in parliamentary elections next year. It
seems there will be no strong [opposition] party. There
could be an opposition party. But it won't have strong,
nationwide support. There will be individual members of
parliament. But those individuals will not [be unified]
in opposition to the president," Maroofi said.
Former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani says
he thinks Karzai will avoid major compromises that bring
warlords into his cabinet. Rabbani is an ethnic Tajik
from the same Panjshiri political faction as Qanooni.
But Rabbani supported Karzai over Qanooni the
presidential race.
Ron Synovitz covers
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq as well as economic
transition and human rights issues. He reported on the
US Army's advance from Kuwait to Baghdad as an embedded
journalist (March-April 2003). Since joining RFE/RL in
1995, he also has covered the Balkans extensively -
including Kosovo (1999), Macedonia's ethnic Albanian
insurgency (2001), Bulgaria and Romania. He has a
master's degree in journalism from Southern Illinois
University-Carbondale.
Copyright (c)
2004, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave
NW, Washington DC 20036
