Russia's trial balloon leaves Japan
cold By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- As Moscow indicated it could hand over two of the four
disputed Kuril islands to Japan, Tokyo has made it clear
that its hardline position has not changed. However,
Japan's insistence on getting back all of the disputed
islands could prove counterproductive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin this week reiterated
the principle of reciprocity in the decades-long
territorial dispute with Japan. "Russia has always fulfilled
and will continue to fulfill all of its obligations,"
Putin told the government on Monday, when commenting on
Russia's relations with Japan. Russia will observe these
obligations "only within the parameters our partners are
prepared to honor", Putin stressed. "As we know, so far,
we have not reached an understanding on these parameters
- as we see them now and as we saw them in 1956," Putin
said.
Putin's statement came a day after
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated that Russia could
act according to the declaration the Soviet Union signed
in 1956, when Moscow and Tokyo re-established
diplomatic relations after World War II. The Soviet Union
pledged to return Shikotan and Habomai after a peace
treaty was signed, and retain the two other islands,
Iturup and Kunashir. The islands are currently inhabited
by a small number of Russian fishermen.
In an
interview with NTV television this week Lavrov said,
"The 1956 declaration, which ranks among the former
Soviet Union's obligations, proposes that the two
southern Kuril islands be passed over to Japan to end
the dispute." Lavrov has said that Russia wants to
"completely settle relations" with Japan but
that the two sides must sign a peace treaty before
any handover can take
place.
The
Kuril chain comprises some 56 islands and lies
between Japan's northernmost island of Hokkaido and
Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. Tokyo acquired the disputed islands - 10,360
square kilometers - in a treaty with Russia in 1875. The
four southernmost islands were occupied by Soviet
forces after Japan's wartime defeat in 1945. The islands -
which Japan refers to as the Northern Territories - were
formally annexed a year later, a move Tokyo has never
recognized and which has prevented the two countries
from signing a formal peace treaty. Russia has suggested
the signing of a treaty before solving the territorial
dispute, but Japan objects.
Moscow tests the
waters It has been understood that by hinting at
a possible handover of two disputed islands to Japan,
Moscow has launched a trial balloon to test Tokyo's
stance as well as the Russian public's reaction to this
would-be compromise. However, the test's results hardly
incited much surprise.
In fact, Tokyo was quick
to snub Russia's overture. Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi announced on Tuesday that Tokyo would insist
that all four islands should be returned. Koizumi
reportedly reiterated that "Japan cannot be content"
with the return of just two of the islands. "We maintain
the policy of concluding a peace treaty only after
clarifying who owns the four islands," he told
reporters.
Even if Japan were
willing to settle for just two, the islands in question
- Habomai and Shikotan - are mere rocky outposts
compared with the territories Russia wants to keep - Iturup and
Kunashir - which are several times larger, with
developed population centers, as well as valuable adjacent
fishing territories. Koizumi has been keen to demonstrate
his resolve to tackle the territorial dispute. He
sailed near Habomai in September despite Russian warnings
that the trip would adversely affect bilateral ties.
Meanwhile, a Japanese government spokesman
said Tokyo was hoping to discuss the dispute during
the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile
this weekend. Chief cabinet secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda said
Koizumi would raise the Kuril dispute with Putin on the
sidelines of the summit. Lavrov is expected to meet with
Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura as well.
Hosoda also cited a 1993 Tokyo
declaration between the two countries that said they would
negotiate over the islands. Former Russian president
Boris Yeltsin signed the declaration during a visit to
Tokyo. In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman
Alexander Yakovenko cited the Russian-Japanese action
plan adopted in 2003 as the basis for territorial
settlement. In January 2003, a summit meeting in Moscow
between Putin and Koizumi attempted to work out ways to
increase their economic and international cooperation
along with the talks for a peace treaty, by adopting the
Russian-Japanese action plan.
Moreover,
talk of a
possible handover of the disputed islands has set off emotional
protests in Moscow. "Not a single inch of land to
a friend or foe," said Dmitry Rogozin, leader of the nationalist
Rodina party. He lashed out at the "ignorant and
unprofessional" foreign minister's statement, which he
said radicalizes sentiments of Russians. Rogozin also said
the islands belong to Russia because it won "a horrible
and bloody war", and because Germany, Italy and Japan,
"three countries of the fascist axis, surrendered
unconditionally".
Meanwhile, Boris Gryzlov,
Speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of
parliament, told Moscow journalists on Tuesday that
Russia should defend its interest in negotiations with
Japan over the Kuril Islands.
Lawmakers in
Russia's Sakhalin region, which incorporates the
islands, passed a resolution denouncing any territorial
concessions. The islands' return would amount to a
"violation of the constitution and [a] crime against the
state", Sakhalin lawmaker Ivan Zhdakayev said. Zhdakayev
also lashed out at the recent handover of two river
islands to China, describing it a "rehearsal" for the
Kurils' return to Japan.
The Sakhalin
lawmaker referred to the foreign minister's statement. Citing
a recent border agreement with China as an example,
Lavrov said the same approach "based on strategic
partnership" could be applied to the dispute over the Kurils.
Last month Russia ceded two uninhabited islands and
an uninhabited portion of another island to China, but
the deal led to protests in the Khabarovsk region, which
includes some of the islands.
However, some
analysts and politicians sounded more receptive to the
idea of handing the Kuril Islands over to Japan. Sergei
Markov, a political analyst and head of Russia's
Institute of Political Studies, suggested that the
return of the islands would benefit Russia. "This would
open up a future for us because in the absence of a
treaty, Japan has a political excuse to discriminate
against Russia," he said.
The road to a
settlement of the issue has indeed hit a number of
obstacles in recent years. In 1997, Japanese prime
minister Ryutaro Hashimoto proposed a plan to improve bilateral
relations. At the Krasnoyarsk summit in Siberia that November,
both nations decided to conclude a peace treaty by
2000, in effect separating the treaty from the territorial
issue. However, hopes to solve differences and sign a
peace treaty before the end of the century failed to
materialize.
Putin has twice before
confirmed Russia's adherence to the 1956 declaration, first
during a visit to Japan in 2000 and the following year at a
meeting with Japanese prime minister Yoshiro Mori in Irkutsk.
At the Russia-Japanese summit meeting between Putin and
Mori in 2001, the two leaders confirmed the 1956
bilateral declaration as a "basis-setting legal
document".
Moscow previously hoped that despite
the continuing territorial dispute, Japan could still
play a role in tapping the vast natural resources of
Russia's Far East. But Tokyo has been reluctant to
develop economic ties with Moscow, hoping to use its
economic might as a bargaining tool in the territorial
dispute.
However, Japan's insistence of
getting back all disputed islands could prove
counterproductive, discouraging Russia from seeking a compromise
solution. Amid an ongoing crude-oil bonanza, with Russian state
coffers full of petrodollars, Moscow has become uninterested
in Japanese economic assistance. With little need of any
of Japan's economic incentives, Russia is unlikely to
offer Tokyo any concessions and the territorial dispute
may well remain in limbo for years to come.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states,
with special attention to Asia-related issues.
He has contributed to Asia Times Online since
1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast
Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers,
New York, published two of his books on Vietnamese
history.
(Additional reporting by Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty)
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