KABUL
- Prospects for the trans-Afghan pipeline seem good,
with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicating that it
is set to launch a preliminary report on the US$2
billion project linking the vast gas field in
Turkmenistan to Pakistan, through Afghanistan.
The earlier contenders for the project, first
mooted in the 1990s, were US oil and gas company Unocal
and its Argentinean rival Bridas. Both had initially
agreed to pay $300 million to Afghanistan per annum as
premium for using the land. But in December 1998, Unocal
said it was withdrawing from the Central Asia Gas
(CentGas) pipeline consortium for business reasons and
would no longer have any role in supporting the
development or funding of this project. Bridas, too,
withdrew from the project, analysts suggest for security
reasons. But now, according to insiders, there are
strong indications that Unocal could be favored by
Afghan officials to return to the venture, though the
company's role is not exactly clear in the ADB-led
project.
Half of the 1,800-kilometer pipeline
will pass through Afghan territory to supply gas from
the Dawlatabad city of Turkmenistan to Gawadar Port of
Pakistan. The trans-Afghan pipeline has been one of the
most controversial issues among Western politicians,
investors and major world gas companies, including
Unocal and Bridas, since 1995.
ADB officials say
the primary plan of the project will soon be released.
Engineer Mandokhil, an advisor to the mines and
industries ministry, told Pajhwok Afghan News: "ADB's
technical and economic study will be completed and the
three countries involved in the project - Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Turkmenistan - will hold a meeting in
Islamabad at the end of November. The final results will
be announced then." Gul Ahmad Kamali, head of the energy
and road projects with the ADB, said his organization's
part in the pipeline project was to assess the
facilities, provide technical advisors, and conduct
surveys.
Oil analysts in the region say whoever
takes the project will reap millions of dollars each
year from the venture. But Afghanistan's security has
been a major concern for investors. Mandokhil added that
should India participate in the project, it will give
more momentum to regional business.
Turkmenistan, the world's biggest producer of
gas, is desperate to get its huge gas reserves out to
the market and boost its weak economy by presenting its
energy supplies to South and Central Asian countries.
The trans-Afghanistan pipeline will first go to
Pakistan's Gawadar Port of Pakistan and then to India.
The gas will then be transferred to Bangkok through
ships.
Hakim Taniwal, the former mines and
industries minister, now minister of employment and
social affairs, told Pajhwok that the three partners
discussed the pipeline's security at the seventh meeting
in Islamabad, as well as India's role in the project.
Engineer Nazar Mohammad Mangal, acting minister
of mines and industry, said the pipeline would give
Afghanistan the opportunity to get involved in regional
development and economic projects. "I've just returned
from India, where I attended a conference of South Asian
Energy [SAE]. Afghanistan joined SAE in this conference,
so the windows of hope are open for us," Mangal said.
Salam Azemi, a former Unocal advisor, said the
project was very important for Afghanistan in terms of
economic and regional benefits and would provide jobs
for many Afghans. Afrasyab Khattak, a Pakistan-based
regional analyst, said the project would benefit both
Afghanistan and Pakistan, despite past hiccups. "Our
region is very backward in economic development. This
project will benefit our nation tremendously. Though
improper rivalry and some initial problems had impeded
the business, it's a good time to seize the initiative,"
Khattak said.
Azemi also said Bridas had started
the primary survey of the project during the mujahideen
government in the 1990s, but suspended plans because of
the lack of security. Iran once tried the pipeline to
pass its territory but failed because it was too
expensive. In 1995, it was thought that the then
Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, prominent
Pakistani leader Nasrullah Babar, the Taliban regime and
Turkmen president Safar Murad Niazov were on one side,
trying give the project to Bridas. On the other side
were Saudi Arabia's Delta Oil, Robin Rafael, a senior
official in the US State Department, Prince Turki
al-Faisal, the then-Saudi intelligence chief Zalmai
Khalilzad, and moderate Taliban officials, supporting
Unocal.
Pakistan, then under Bhutto, was under
pressure from the US to sign the pipeline construction
agreement. Insiders also say the UN special
representative to Afghanistan at the time, Mahmood
Misteiry, and his deputy were both sacked as the deputy
was associated with Bridas. Unocal, a 108-year-old
reputed oil and gas company, won the bid. It planned to
train professional Afghans at the University of Nebraska
to run the project.
By October 1997, Unocal
established the Central Asian Gas Pipeline consortium to
build the Turkmenistan-Pakistan segment of the pipeline
at an estimated cost of $2 billion ($2.7 billion if
extended to India). Construction was scheduled to begin
as early as 1998, but the ongoing civil war in
Afghanistan stalled the project. After the US air
strikes in Afghanistan in August 1998, Unocal suspended
its involvement in the pipeline and officially withdrew
from the consortium toward the end of the year.
The revised scheme, apart from the $300 million
annual income, should pave the way for extension of a
railway alongside the pipeline, provide jobs to
thousands of Afghans, distribute free gas to the areas
through which the pipeline passes, and should ensure
construction of electricity and road facilities in these
areas. Azemi says Pakistan-India relations should
improve and the Kashmir dispute settled before the
project comes into effect.
While there's talk of
Unocal's return, some analysts criticize the company for
its "bad history". In his book, Afghanistan in the
Blaze of Oil, Bashir Ahmad Ansari wrote Unocal has
always been under public pressure over its "inhumane
policies". The strongest objection against the company
came in the form of a 120-page protest letter by 30
US-based organizations on December 10, 1998, submitted
to legal officials in California.
"Unocal's
cooperation with the Taliban regime, which was violating
all human rights, especially women's rights, forced most
women's organizations in the US to criticize the
company," wrote Ansari. "The oppressed Afghan nation
became a victim of the black dinosaur of petroleum after
being sacrificed by Red communism."
