Moscow's Middle East
maneuverings By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Russia, previously dismissive of the
US-backed "Broader Middle East" initiative, now appears
to be moving closer toward Washington's stance on the
issue. Nevertheless, Russia remains deeply skeptical
over the showcase of the Bush administration's Middle
East policy - Iraq.
Russia will negotiate
debt restructuring with its borrowers in the
Middle East-North Africa region, Finance Minister Alexei
Kudrin told the US-sponsored "Forum for the Future" in
Morocco on Sunday. "Russia sees its participation in the
Forum for the Future above all in terms of economic
development," Kudrin said on the sidelines of the
conference. "It is obvious that the region's economies
need liberalization," he said, adding, "We have to
settle debt issues with Afghanistan, Algeria, Yemen,
Syria and Libya."
The forum was the centerpiece
of the so-called Partnership for Progress and a Common
Future with the Region of the Broader Middle East and
North Africa (BMENA). Russia's talk about debt
restructuring as well as its suggestion that the region
needs liberalization arguably indicate that the Kremlin
is dropping some of its reservations regarding the
Broader Middle East initiative.
The forum
was attended by foreign and finance ministers from more
than 20 countries of the Middle East and North Africa,
along with their counterparts from the Group
of Eight (G8) countries - the United States,
France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan,
Canada and Russia.
The forum was part of an initiative launched
by US President George Bush at the 2004 G8 summit at
Sea Island, Georgia, in June to find ways in which wealthier
nations and international institutions can promote
change in order to attack problems that breed Islamic
extremism.
Initially, Russia somewhat
disapproved of BMENA, but officially, Russia would have
no quarrel with the partnership's democratic and
economic reforms plan. But Moscow did argue that
reforming the region is something that should be done by
the Middle East countries themselves. Notably, the forum
is said to have actually rebuked US efforts to curb
Islamic extremism and promote democracy in the Middle
East due to its one-sided stand in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Iran boycotted the forum,
while Israel was not invited.
Full of
energy Meanwhile, Moscow's state-controlled gas
monopoly Gazprom reportedly proposed the sale of an
unlimited amount of gas to Israel via a pipeline passing
by Antalia in southern Turkey, and ending at Haifa.
Gazprom is said to have offered to finance and handle
construction of the US$1 billion pipeline in exchange
for a long-term contract. A pipeline from Russia could
also serve to supply Cyprus, Lebanon and Syria. Such a
project, if fulfilled, would come as Russia's
significant economic contribution to the BMENA
initiative.
On the other hand, Russian President
Vladimir Putin expressed deep skepticism over Iraq,
including US plans to hold a parliamentary election
there next month when foreign troops will still be
present. "I cannot imagine how elections can be held
under a full occupation of the country by foreign
troops," Putin said.
Moscow also remains hesitant about
becoming more involved in Iraq. Iraq is still too
dangerous for Russian firms to work there, Putin was
quoted as saying last Thursday. "Our companies are ready
to return to Iraq as soon as the necessary conditions
are established from the point of view of security. As
we can see, such conditions have not been established,"
Putin said.
Yet despite its skepticism over Iraq,
this month Russia indicated it expected a larger role
in Iraqi reconstruction after its decision to reduce
Iraqi debt. "Initially, we had pledged to write off 65%
of Iraqi debt, then we joined the Paris Club decision
and we will write off more than 90% of Iraqi debt,"
Putin told visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi
during a meeting at the Kremlin on December 7. "We are
doing this [based] on solidarity with friendly Iraqi
people," Putin said.
"Simultaneously, we assume
that your administration and the future Iraqi government
would respect interests of Russian companies," Putin
told Allawi. Russia's decision to write off Iraqi debt
will help Russia to play a leading role in reviving
Iraq's industry and economy, Allawi reportedly said.
Last month, Russia backed a deal agreed on by
the Paris Club to write off some 90% of Iraq's debt.
Previously, Russia had offered to reduce Iraq's debt to
Moscow from more than $8 billion to $3.5 billion and
pledged up to $4 billion in investments to help rebuild
Iraq.
Russia's writeoff sparked rumors
that Moscow was tempted to play a bigger role in Iraq.
Last month, some Russian media speculated that Moscow
had agreed to send a small number of troops to Iraq to
protect oil wells and support the US-led military
campaign there.
On the other hand,
oil-for-food graft accusations remain a major irritant for
Moscow. Russia reportedly declined to clinch a deal with
a United Nations probe into the contentious
oil-for-food program. Russia has refused to sign documents that
would govern how witnesses and documents are handled in
the investigation. In mid-November, four UN
Volcker Commission investigators traveled to Moscow
for consultations, but no details of what was discussed
were released.
Russia reportedly tops the list
of nations that helped Saddam Hussein circumvent
sanctions and embezzle up to $21 billion through illegal
surcharges and kickbacks from foreign companies and
individuals participating in the program.
Coincidence or not, Moscow opted to balance its
tentative approval of the US-backed Broader Middle East
initiative with a simultaneous overture toward
Washington's regional arch-foe, Iran.
Iranian
President Mohammad
Khatami has praised what he described as Russian
support of Iran's right to use nuclear energy "for peaceful
purposes". "Moscow and Tehran stand against unilateral
policies and terrorism and we support the joint
struggle against this evil and consider double-standard policies
in the fight against terrorism unacceptable," Khatami
reportedly told visiting Sergei Mironov, Speaker
of Russia's Federation Council, the upper house
of parliament. In response, Mironov, on a visit to
Tehran on Saturday and Sunday, said that Moscow would
continue nuclear cooperation with Iran.
Tehran's
dismissal
of "evil" unilateral policies and double-standard
approaches hardly came as a surprise. However,
Russia's synchronized gestures toward Tehran and
the US-backed Broader Middle East initiative are somewhat
confusing and it is unclear what Russia plots to
achieve in the Middle East by more or less backing the
BMENA, writing off Iraqi debt and simultaneously
reiterating nuclear ties with Iran.
Based in
Moscow, Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet
states with special attention to Asia-related
issues. He has been contributing to Asia Times
Online since 1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he spent some
seven years in Southeast Asia, mainly in Vietnam. In
2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York, published
his two books on Vietnamese history.
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