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Moscow stands firm on Korean
standoff
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Speculation that a
second intra-Korean summit could take place on
the sidelines of Russia's World War II
victory celebrations is swirling, with South
Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il both reportedly invited to the
event.
The May 9 celebration
of the 60th anniversary of the Allied victory, to
be held in Moscow, is to be a major event in
Russia. In all, the Kremlin has invited the leaders
of 55 nations of World War II, including victors such
as the United States, Britain and France; losers such
as Germany and Japan; as well as those profoundly affected
by it, such as China and Korea.
The possibility
of a second summit in Russia isn't unlikely, as
the Kremlin has repeatedly offered to play the
role of mediator in the ongoing Korean standoff.
Russia is ready to host "any meetings and talks,
to help in any form so as to normalize the
situation" around North Korea, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has stated, and Moscow has long
been pressing for the resumption of the six-nation
talks to convince North Korea to drop its nuclear
weapons program, and for the non-nuclear status of
the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea and
South Korea, supported by the United States,
China, Japan and Russia, have held several rounds
of negotiations aimed at persuading Pyongyang to
abandon its nuclear weapons drive. However, Kim
has long resisted relinquishing his nation's
nuclear program, despite international pledges of
security guarantees and economic aid.
Last
September, Putin held summit talks in Moscow with
his South Korean counterpart Roh. This resulted in
a 10-point joint declaration pledging support a
nuclear-free zone on the Korean Peninsula;
strengthened cooperation in the six-nation talks;
a block on weapons of mass destruction
proliferation; joint actions to combat terrorism.
In particular, the two leaders pledged to prevent
the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical
weapons.
Moscow's relations with North
Korea, meanwhile, are topsy-turvy at best. Last
year, Russian official media outlets alleged that
North Korea was about to declare itself a nuclear
power. In 2003, Russian media speculated over
possible military involvement in Korea, in
particular, a possible nuclear conflict on the
Korean peninsula involving a preemptive missile
strike against North Korean nuclear facilities,
carried out by the Russian Pacific Fleet. On the
other hand, it was been reported that in 2003 Kim
sent a letter to Putin seeking his help in
breaking the stalemate in the talks over the
nuclear crisis.
The last time Russia tried
its hand at negotiating a strategic agreement with
Kim, in 2000, it turned into a fiasco. First it
was announced in Moscow that North Korea had
agreed to give up its ballistic rocket program in
exchange for Russia's launching of civilian
satellites into space. Then it turned out the deal
was a joke initiated by Kim.
Nonetheless,
despite this unfortunate incident, in recent years
the reclusive Dear Leader has made two epic trips
to Moscow by rail, hence Kim's attendance in the
Russian capital in May cannot be completely ruled
out.
Of course, Kim has never attended an
international event with foreign heads of state.
On similar occasions, the nominal head of state,
President Kim Young-nam of the Supreme People's
Assembly Presidium, attended. But given the Dear
Leader's unpredictability and mercurial habits,
yet another rail trip to Moscow could suddenly
materialize. Hence Russian, South Korean and other
officials have reasons to plan for all
eventualities - including Kim's sudden arrival in
Moscow.
Russia's top diplomat declined to
comment on a possible intra-Korean summit meeting
in Moscow in May. "Questions on contacts, which
could be held without Russia's participation,
should be best of all addressed to the leaders of
the countries wishing to meet," Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists in Moscow
this week. However, Lavrov argued that the
six-party talks on North Korea could be held
"shortly and will be entail results".
Incidentally, earlier this week, US
secretary of state-designate Condoleezza Rice
reacted cautiously to reports that the North
Koreans were ready to rejoin negotiations with
China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US,
which collapsed last year. "We have heard nothing
really from North Korea," Rice said.
Rice
has also urged for united world action to keep
Iran and North Korea from building nuclear
weapons. "We must remain united in insisting that
Iran and North Korea abandon their nuclear weapons
ambitions, and choose instead the path of peace,"
Rice said.
Contrariwise, Moscow has been
urging nations to take a cautious course of action
in relations with Pyongyang. For instance, Russia
has indicated it would be against the North Korea
nuclear issue being referred to the United Nations
Security Council, even if the six-party talks
fail. Teymuraz Ramishvili, Russia's envoy to South
Korea, has said that North Korea's collapse was
"almost impossible" and "there can be no change in
the regime by outside powers". The last statement
indicates that Moscow's true concerns deal with
the recent regime changes in other parts of the
world, rather than stability in Northeast Asia.
Notably, the Kremlin has been reluctant to
sacrifice its relations with countries seen as
rouge states in Washington. Russia has defended
its nuclear ties with Iran, arguing Tehran's
nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. On
Tuesday, Lavrov stated that he did not see any
reason to suspect the nature of Iran's nuclear
program. Meanwhile, earlier this week, Washington
said it would not rule out military force against
Iran.
Moscow's reluctance to subscribe to
US views is not limited to North Korea and Iran.
For instance, Syrian President Bashar Assad is due
to travel to Russia on January 24, presumably
seeking aid and protection while facing a possible
US invasion.
Earlier this month, Israel
and the US lashed out at a would-be arms deal
between Russia and Syria, although Russian
officials denied any plans to sell Iskander-E
ground-to-ground advanced missiles to Damascus.
Last week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov said there had been no talks about missiles
with Damascus. "We do not have any negotiations
with Syria on the possible shipment of such
missiles," he said. However, Ivanov added missiles
sales to Damascus would violate no international
treaty.
Moscow
has been wary of the United States'
unilateral policies, arguing that Washington would
eventually find itself incapable of ruling the
world single-handily. Russia has been seen as
forging closer ties with China and India,
presumably in order to confront perceived US
unilateralism and forestall possible US action
against North Korea, Iran and Syria. As Moscow has
been unhappy about the recently licensed
revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, the Kremlin
seems keen on preventing regime changes elsewhere.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet
states, with special attention to Asia-related
issues. He has contributed to Asia Times
Online since1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was
based in Southeast Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova
Science Publishers, New York, published two of his
books on Vietnamese history.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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