|
|
|
|
Kyrgyzstan fears blossoming
tulips
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - As further prospects for regime
change become apparent in Central Asia,
long-serving leaders in that region appear to be
leaning toward Moscow and Beijing - and away from
Washington - in an apparent attempt to stave off
another Ukraine-style revolution.
Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev
increasingly faces what is already being described
as a "Tulip Revolution", a reference to the
country's wide variety of tulip species. Hence
from Sunday to Tuesday, Akayev paid a visit to
Russia, presumably seeking reassurances that the
Kremlin was still behind him.
In a public
address in Moscow on his arrival, Akayev stressed
the need to work out "preventive measures" to
combat international terrorism. Meanwhile, at a
meeting in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin and
Akayev discussed interaction in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the
Commonwealth of Independent States.
Keeping in mind the ongoing geostrategic power
play in the region, Akayev played on Moscow's
own insecurities, and described the Russian
military base in Kant as "a key element of
security in Central Asia". In other words, the
Russian base in Kant and Central Asian security
would be safe as long as old elites remain in
power in Kyrgyzstan.
Akayev, now 60 years
old, had promised to leave office this coming
October, at the end of his third term. He is
barred by the constitution from running again, but
in the past he has circumvented the law to extend
his power. Therefore elections held since
Kyrgyzstan's independence in 1991 have never been
recognized as free and fair.
The president's daughter,
Bermet Akayev, recently helped to organize a new
party of power, Alga Kyrgyzstan, or "Forward Kyrgyzstan",
which is expected to run in next month's
parliamentary election. Pro-Akayev political
groups aim at a strong showing to boost their
candidate in the October 30 presidential poll.
Pro-Akayev
political forces now face ominous signs. On
December 20, leaders of opposition groups
threatened to stage massive demonstrations against
what they described as attempts to rig
the February parliamentary vote. Beginning January 7,
about 150 people, wearing yellow and pink
protest scarves, picketed outside parliament, and
later government buildings in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.
They were protesting the authorities' refusal to
change the electoral law to allow citizens who have
not lived in the country for five years before
the election date to register as
candidates. The decision in effect ended the political aspirations
of four former ambassadors, and last Wednesday about 400 people
gathered in Bishkek to protest the Supreme Court
ruling that upheld the decision.
Kyrgyzstan has been experiencing a measure
of stability and relative prosperity, notably in
comparison to nearby Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
However, more than 40% of the country's 5 million
inhabitants live below the national poverty line,
according to United Nations Development Program
figures. Therefore, opposition leaders have
reasons to count on mass support from
disillusioned people.
As Akayev
announced his intention last year not to seek another
term, several of his loyalists, including former
prime minister Kurmanbek Bakiyev, former head of
the Security Council Misir Ashirkulov and
former foreign minister Muratbek Imanliyev, joined
the opposition.
Other Central
Asian leaders recognize that prospects of regime
change are becoming far too obvious. The danger
of another coup is apparent in Kyrgyzstan now,
Uzbek President Islam Karimov argued this month.
"Akayev identified the West as the source
of money used to cover the 'shortage of
democracy'. I ask him: If what you are saying is
so indeed, why are you not doing something about
it? He says he is helpless," Karimov told the
Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily on January 14.
However, the Uzbek strongman reiterated that "what
happened in Georgia and Ukraine cannot happen in
Uzbekistan", in reference to pro-Western leaders
receiving "help" in coming to power there.
Akayev may have the right idea in
moving closer to Russia, which is understood to be
keen on forestalling a political crisis in
Kyrgyzstan. Russia and Kyrgyzstan have maintained
close political and military ties, and Akayev
tends to support the Kremlin's policies in the
region.
In October 2003, Russia
launched an air base at a military airfield in Kant, about
20 kilometers east of Bishkek. The Russian task
force is to provide air power for a contingent of
ground forces known as a rapid-reaction force.
This group could eventually total more than 5,000
troops from Russia, as well as from Kyrgyzstan,
Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the members of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Moscow has been keen to reiterate
its long-term interests in Central Asia
without alienating Washington. On January 14,
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov pledged
peaceful co-existence between the US and the
Russian military bases in Kyrgyzstan. "The
distance between the US and the Russian military bases
in Kyrgyzstan is 30km and they co-exist
peacefully," he said. However, Ivanov insisted
that Washington's base in Manas had been created
"temporarily", while the Russian base was
permanent.
Meanwhile, the
US believes that the presence of coalition forces at
the airbase in Kyrgyzstan is "still essential",
US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Stephen Young announced
on December 25. Incidentally, on January
17, President Akayev visited a US-led coalition base
near Bishkek for the first time since it was
set up in this ex-Soviet republic in 2001.
Furthermore, Washington has tried to
pressure Akayev into holding free and fair
elections, which Bishkek has viewed as unwanted
interference and support for the political
opposition. In November, US Ambassador Young
offered financial aid for fair elections and
stated that "if a peaceful transfer of power takes
place in Kyrgyzstan, it could inspire the citizens
of the neighboring Central Asian states". Young's
remarks set off a critical reaction among
Kyrgyzstan's ruling elite.
On December 27,
Akayev accused the West of sponsoring revolutions
in Ukraine and Georgia and vowed to prevent
similar scenarios in Kyrgyzstan. Speaking at a
December 10 Bishkek conference on democracy,
Akayev stressed that a revolution would not
contradict the "core interests of Kyrgyzstan".
Kyrgyz official rhetoric took on
some hardline overtones. On January 4, the Assembly
of Peoples of Kyrgyzstan criticized Young
for interference in Kyrgyz internal affairs.
Law-enforcement agencies in Kyrgyzstan must prevent
the nation's destabilization, first deputy head of
the Kyrgyz presidential administration Bolot
Dzhanuzakov told an Interior Ministry seminar on
January 17.
"January protests by the
opposition show that certain political forces do
not want to comply with current laws. Their goal
is destabilization at any cost and usurpation of
power," Dzhanuzakov said.
Akayev is
believed to pursue a "multidirectional" policy,
favoring security cooperation with Washington as
well as with Moscow and the Beijing-dominated SCO.
He saw no contradiction in the simultaneous
presence of US and Russian military bases in
Kyrgyzstan, pledging his country to become "a
location for cooperation" between of Russia and
the US.
Yet after perceived US
involvement in the would-be Tulip Revolution,
Bishkek's foreign policy seems to have shifted in
favor of Moscow and Beijing.
In the
meantime, Beijing is interested in boosting its
own economic clout in Central Asia. In 2004,
China's trade with Kyrgyzstan was up by nearly
85%. In September, China and Kyrgyzstan signed
agreements for cooperation in large-scale joint
economic ventures, communications, border trade
and energy.
Moreover, Akayev's current
vulnerability has been somewhat connected with his
China diplomacy. In 2002, the Akayev
administration faced criticism over a border deal
under which Kyrgyzstan transferred some 95,000
hectares of its territory to China. In March 2002,
5,000 people gathered in the Jalal-Abad province
of impoverished southern Kyrgyzstan, and in the
ensuing rioting five protesters were killed and
dozens of civilians and police injured. Therefore,
anti-Akayev protests could also take on
anti-Chinese overtones.
China's regional policy
has a security element, too. In August 2003,
armed forces of SCO member states, including
China, Russia and Kyrgyzstan, held unprecedented
multilateral counter-terrorism maneuvers near
Ucharal, Kazakhstan, and Yining in China's Xinjiang
Uighur Autonomous Region. Beijing surely would not
like to see any "Tulip Revolutions" taking place
in neighboring Kyrgyzstan - which would send
unwanted signals to China's own tense Xinjiang
region.
Based in Moscow, Sergei
Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states with
special attention to Asia-related issues. He has
been contributing to Asia Times Online since 1996.
Between 1983 and 1997, he spent some seven years
in Southeast Asia, mainly in Vietnam. In 2001
and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York,
published his two books on Vietnamese history.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong
Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
Asian Sex Gazette Central Asian Sex News
|
|
|
