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Russian bear makes Israel
jittery
By K Gajendra Singh
While Syrian President Bashar Assad denied
that he was in Moscow to shop for weapons, he
defended his country's right to acquire
surface-to-air missiles from Russia. He said
during his four-day visit that was due to end on
Thursday that "these are weapons for air defense,
meant to prevent aircraft from intruding in our
airspace".
"If Israel objects to our
acquisition of these defensive weapons, it is as
if it is saying, 'We want to attack Syria but we
do not want them to defend themselves.' That's not
logical," concluded Assad while addressing the
State Institute for Foreign Relations. But Assad
reiterated an earlier denial of a deal for SA-18
missiles and long-range Iskandar-E missiles that
could reach targets all over Israel.
Ever
since
the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003, Syria has
been threatened both by Israel and the US. Assad
was furious when Israeli jets recently buzzed him
in his palace.
To mark the historic Syrian
visit, Russia announced that it would write off 73% of
US$13.4 billion in debt owed by Syria from the
days of the USSR. Russian President Vladimir Putin
said this created "opportunities for long-term
cooperation".
A joint statement
issued on Wednesday included a conciliatory message to the
US that both countries "vehemently condemn terror
in all its forms and expressions, and affirm the
strong need of the international community to
channel its effort to fight effectively this
dangerous challenge to the human race".
But Assad invited Russia to the region
because "Russia has an enormous role, and has a
lot of respect from Third World countries ...
which really hope that Russia will try to revive
the positions it used to hold". He added that US
foreign policy on Iraq was "disastrous".
Russia seems to be returning to the Middle
East. At the time of the first Gulf crisis and war
in 1990-91, when then Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev
made moves for a peaceful settlement, he was
brushed aside by US president George H W Bush.
The
other main points of the statement are as
follows.
On Iraq, the two sides, while stressing
commitment to Iraq's territorial integrity,
sovereignty and security, asserted support
to the political process under way in Iraq to
achieve reconciliation and secure the rights of all
Iraqis regardless of their religious or ethnic belonging
in line with United Nations Resolution No 1546,
whose implementation creates the proper conditions
for foreign troops to pull out from the country.
Regarding the United States' unilateralism,
they expressed confidence that the 21st-century world
system should be built on international law,
taking into consideration the interests of all
countries and mechanisms of formulating unanimous
stances to solve international issues through the
pivotal role the UN assumes.
On Israel's
reported nuclear stockpile and Western countries'
emphasis against weapons of mass destruction
(WMD), Syria and Russia agreed to cooperate in the
field of boosting international stability and
preventing the proliferation of WMD, pointing to
the importance of commitment to UN Security
Council Resolution No 1540 and freeing the Middle
East from all kinds of WMD.
The
joint statement criticized
US President George W Bush's daily
lectures on spreading liberty, elections and
democracy. "Democracy and reforms in the Middle
East should be in line with the historical,
spiritual and civilizational features of states
and are strongly linked to the achievement of a
just and comprehensive peace in the region," the
statement said. Defense cooperation was muted in
the phrase "it underlined that the two sides would
develop traditional cooperation in the military
technical field in a way that meets the mutual
concerns of both countries and their international
commitments".
Shivers down the Israeli
spine
Commenting on the visit, a jittery
Jerusalem Post, while describing the Russian role
in the region, wrote, "Russia's planned sale of
SA-18 missiles to Syria looms ominously as a
throwback to the [Leonid] Brezhnev era's most
misguided attitudes. Economically, Syria is a
basket case whose debt-return record must make one
doubt its financial commitments. Ideologically,
Syria remains part of the terrorist internationale
which has repeatedly victimized Russia. And
diplomatically, arming Damascus while Washington
suspects it of fueling the war on its troops in
Iraq brings to mind memories of Russia's role in
the Vietnam and Korea wars.
"President
Vladimir Putin has earned himself a reputation as
a rational man out to restore Russia's global
stature. In itself, this is a worthy goal.
However, by pandering to regimes such as Assad's,
not only will Putin not have restored Russia's
clout, he will convince people that he has learned
nothing from his Soviet predecessors' downfalls.
He will also make people reconsider their
impression of his rationalism."
But then
where would Israel be without massive annual US
aid? Would not Israel be a basket case too? Or for
that matter take the massive US aid given to
Pakistan in return for its support in the "war on
terror", despite Pakistan allowing its territory
to be used for training and recruitment of jihadis
to attack Indian territory, among other places.
Syrian strategic analyst
Gamal Barout said recently, "Back in 2001, the Russian
side showed a desire for a strategic alliance
with Damascus, but traditional government wrangling
poured cold water on the bid. Now, Syria needs Moscow
to stave off European-American pressures." Last
September, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution
put forward by the US and France that demanded the
withdrawal of foreign forces (Syrian) from Lebanon
and non-interference in the Lebanese presidential
elections. Russia, which has the power of the
veto, abstained in that vote.
US Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice (shortly before her
confirmation to that position) warned that
Damascus faced new sanctions because of "its
suspected interference in Iraq and ties to
terrorism". As a riposte, Russian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Alexander Yakovenko described Syria as
one of its "most important partners" in the Middle
East. He added, "It's well known that slapping
labels on countries and unilaterally describing
certain states as part of the 'axis of evil' has
not improved anyone's security."
While an
impoverished Syria needs to maintain and modernize
its army, Russia also needs a foothold in the
Middle East in view of the security and strategic
significance of the region and Euro-American
competition. The revival of the old strategic
alliance of the Cold War is mutually beneficial.
Another expert said, "Moscow has been facing
several problems recently. It realized that
Washington had gone too far in extending its
influence at the expense of Russia," arguing that
Washington was seeking to encircle Moscow, one way
or the other.
Syrian journalist Hayan
Niouf said that Syria could also play a positive
role in pushing for Moscow's active role, if not
membership, in the Organization of Islamic
Conference (OIC), in exchange for Russian
political support in the UN and the Security
Council. Russia, with a population of tens of
millions of Muslims, was invited as a guest at the
most recent OIC summit in Malaysia last year. With
many Muslim nations distrusting the US government
and its policies, and hatred against the US in
much of the Muslim ummah (community), the
OIC would be happy to grant a bigger role to
Russia.
Assad's visit to China
Assad has been trying hard to escape the suffocating
straitjacket that Israeli and US policies
have tied him in. US sanctions, signed into
law at the end of 2003, include a near-blanket
ban on US exports to Syria and the power
to freeze Syrian assets in the US. Except for
food and medicines and items intended for certain
exempt entities, such as the US Embassy, foreign
diplomatic missions and UN agencies in Damascus,
all US exports to Syria, estimated at some
$100 million a year, were banned under the sanctions.
The US resolution also banned the exportation
of "dual use" technology and
restricted over-flight rights for Syrian aircraft
inside US airspace.
Last June, Assad
visited China, the first ever visit by a Syrian
head of state. A more liberal politician in the
economic field than his late father, Hafez Assad,
the visit was made with the aim of learning from
China's economic boom. The editor-in-chief of
Syria's state-run al-Thawra newspaper remarked
that the landmark visit demonstrated Damascus's
keenness on following in the footsteps of
Beijing's open-door economic policy, growth rates
and political reforms. Syria was also interested
in acquiring technology from China.
Chinese Foreign Minister Zhaoxing Li,
while welcoming the visit, endorsed Syria's right
to the occupied Golan Heights, and described the
US sanctions on Syria a "double-standards policy".
A Chinese diplomat in Damascus also highlighted
the military cooperation between both countries,
pointing to the mutual visits of military
delegations. Syria of course has energy resources,
and many European and even Asian oil giants have
shown great interest in bidding for oil and gas
contracts after the withdrawal of US oil
companies.
Missile talk
Two
weeks ago, when the media reported a possible
missile deal between Russia and Syria, Russian
Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, then on a visit to
Washington, denied it, but Israeli Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom was the first official to
admit that Israel did ask Russia to halt the deal.
"We turned to the Russians and asked that they not
complete this deal," said Shalom. "Syria is a
country that supports terror and is supplying
Hezbollah with weapons non-stop." He added that the
sale "will disrupt regional stability and won't
improve the chances for peace".
Israeli
analyst Gerald Steinberg said the reported sales
came as a surprise because the Syrians did not
have money to buy Russian weapons. "If this report
is true, it is very problematic and will pose a
challenge to Israeli military planners," said
Steinberg. The Jerusalem Post cited top Israeli
diplomatic officials as saying that Israel asked
the US to pressure Russia to scrap the deal,
claiming that the missiles could be smuggled into
Iraq and endanger the US forces there.
For
Israel and the US it would be an adverse
development in the wake of the deteriorating
situation around Iraq, but Moscow has made its
point and more. Russia does not like being pushed
around by US-led Western efforts, as it was in
Ukraine and Georgia, or being lectured on the sale
of Russian oil giant Yukos, and it resents support
for the insurgency in Chechnya.
Syria has Soviet-era Scud
ground-to-ground missiles, but media reports suggest that Moscow is
ready to sell a vastly updated version of
the Scud, the Iskandar, or even SS-26
missiles. These are capable of pinpoint strikes
against targets within a 300-kilometer range, which could reach most
Israeli targets, including its atomic reactor at
Dimona.
US North Atlantic Treaty
Organization ally Turkey's Prime Minister Recep
Tayib Erdogan recently completed a visit to
Moscow, soon after Putin's postponed visit to
Ankara last month. While relations between Turkey
and the US have cooled down, primarily because of
differences over the US-led invasion of Iraq,
Turkey is coming closer to its historical enemy,
Russia.
In 1999, Turkey threatened to
invade Syria if it did not expel Kurdish rebel
leader Abdullah Ocalan (which it did, and he was
captured and imprisoned in Turkey), but since then
relations have warmed up, with the exchange of
visits by Assad and Erdogan. And after a visit by
Iranian President Mohammed Khatami to Ankara,
relations with Tehran, historically soured by the
Shi'ite-Sunni rivalry, are also improving.
At the same time, relations between Turkey
and Israel, which were quite close during the Cold
War and almost hot after the fall of the Berlin
Wall, have deteriorated recently, with Erdogan
accusing Israel of state terrorism in the occupied
territories. Turkey also asked Israel to leave
Kurdish north Iraq alone, following reports that
Mossad had been training Kurdish peshmergas
(paramilitaries) to operate in the neighborhood,
especially in Iran and Syria. Turmoil in northern
Iraq has always adversely affected Turkey's own
Kurdish southeast.
Why Putin is
angry
Speaking to the media in Moscow last
month, Putin expressed his anger at the West,
whether it was about the latter's encouragement to
the insurgency in Chechnya or a string of US-led
Western "franchised" successes in getting
anti-Russian leaders elected in its strategic
neighborhood, that is, the "Rose Revolution" in
Georgia in November 2003 and the "Orange
Revolution" in the even more vitally important
Ukraine, in which finally anti-Russian Victor
Yushchenko won. His utterances and the appointment
of anti-Russian Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister
are provocative.
Putin said last
month, "Every country has the right to choose
the development path it considers best, including
in organizing its political system." Referring to
US criticism of the November 21 elections in
Ukraine (then US secretary of state Colin Powell said
Washington would not accept them), Putin retorted that he
was not ecstatic about what happened in the US.
"Do you think that the electoral system in the
United States is entirely flawless? Do I have to
recall the last elections in the United States or
the one before?" he added. He pointed out that the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe had criticized the US for barring observers
from some polling stations in last month's Ukrainian
elections. "There was even intimidation of
voters."
He also ridiculed a Texas
judge's ruling on the sale of Russian oil giant
Yukos. "I am not sure whether they know where
Russia is. The level of professional training [of
the judge] perplexes me," he said. He also
lambasted the scheduled January 30 election in
Iraq, saying that "it could not be fair while the
country remained occupied by US-led forces".
Russia, despite US pressure, is going
ahead with cooperation in setting up nuclear power
stations in Iran. China recently signed a major
long-term agreement with Iran for energy purchases
and development of the Iranian oil and gas sector.
Energy-hungry China and India are aggressively
bidding for investment and development of Yukos
energy assets.
The US reaction
Before the Russian denial, while describing
Russian arms sales to Syria as speculative, State
Department spokesman Richard Boucher made it clear
that the US was opposed in principle to all arms
sales to Syria. He said, "We have seen reports of
the sale. The US policy on this is very clear.
We're against the sale of weaponry to Syria, the
sale of lethal military equipment to Syria, which
is a state sponsor of terrorism. We think those
kinds of sales are not appropriate. The Russians
know about this policy. They know about our
views." He added that the Russian entities
involved in such a sale would be subject to US
sanctions under a law aimed at curbing the flow of
arms to countries on US terrorism lists. Russian
Defense Minister Ivanov was in Washington for
high-level talks, including with Powell.
The proposed sale has injected tension not
only into Russian-Israel relations, but with the
US as well. Israel said that the missiles might
end up in the hands of Lebanese Hezbollah
guerrillas and would be aimed at Israeli targets.
Hezbollah, which is close to Syria, fought an
18-year guerrilla war against Israeli forces in
south Lebanon, firing rockets at northern Israel
until 2000, and threatens to do so again, say the
Israelis.
This development might
bring some restraint over the policies pursued
by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The
missiles deal would beef up Syria's air defenses
and discourage Israel from making regular threats
to Syria. The Moscow Daily Kommersant said
that Damascus had asked for 18 Iskandar missiles
in August, but was told they had not been fully
tested. The Syrians have now been told that the
missiles are ready.
Paul Beaver, a
London-based defense analyst, commented that while
Russia has upgraded Syrian military equipment, it
has not sold it new arms since 1990. Beaver added
that the SA-18 evolved from the Russian
shoulder-held SAM-7, which was widely used during
the Vietnam War. The SA-18 is much more flexible
and can even target the non-heat-emitting section
of an aircraft. It can also overcome many Western
defensive maneuvers, such as flares, used to deflect
anti-aircraft missiles. It weighs just over 10
kilograms, has a maximum range of six kilometers
and can be used to shoot down planes and
helicopters. The sophisticated missiles cost about
US$250,000 each. Analysts said the US might be
concerned that Iraqi insurgents would get their
hands on these, threatening US warplanes in Iraq.
This palpably is an Israeli line.
Israel
asked for US intervention in stalling the missile
deal. David Siegel, a spokesman for the Israeli
Embassy in Washington, said, "The reports in this
regard are very disturbing and, as in other cases
with strategic implications, we conduct an ongoing
dialogue with the administration."
"We have enough problems on the ground with Syria
and we don't need more problems from the sky,"
Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres said. Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom said, "We have close
contacts with the Russians. We had consultations
over the past few days, and we hope to reach the
necessary agreement." Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Alexander Saltanov is in the region to
discuss the missile issue.
Israelis are keen not to jeopardize improving
relations with Russia, in place since the unraveling of
the USSR. Israeli Foreign Ministry official
Gideon Meir denied a Russian media report that
Israel had recalled its ambassador. The ambassador
was in Israel, but would return to Moscow
soon, added Meir. Many millions of Russian
Jews have immigrated to Israel, changing
the demographic makeup of Israel and making its
policies more right-wing and aggressive. Sharon, who is
of Russian descent, has visited Moscow three
times since becoming prime minister in 2001. He
asked Putin to stop Iran in its covert nuclear-arms
program and to restrain Syria, along with its
Lebanese and Palestinian proxies: a case of the
wolf blaming the lamb.
Conclusion
Assad's visit to Russia marks the first
stirrings of the Russian bear, which was sent into
hibernation after the USSR's power was partly
dismantled by Mikhail Gorbachev, without
leveraging anything in return. A drunk or drugged
Boris Yeltsin then set Russia on the road to
economic ruin, robbing it of public property,
which saw the emergence of a handful of dollar
multibillionaires.
Putin, a karate
expert, has come of age. He no longer appears to
trust Bush. Russia is still a world nuclear power
and can defend itself and its interests. A
majority of nations, almost all of the Muslim
countries, oppose the United States' unilateralist
policies and targeting of Muslims. Russia has
accumulated more than 500 billion rubles ($16.7 billion)
in its energy-stabilization fund because of
unprecedented high global oil prices: its economic
situation is getting better. Putin will follow his
own path.
K Gajendra Singh
served as Indian ambassador to Turkey and
Azerbaijan from 1992-96. Prior to that, he served
as ambassador to Jordan (during the 1990-91 Gulf
War), Romania and Senegal. He is currently
chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies
and editorial adviser with global geopolitics
website Eurasia Research Center, USA. E-mail Gajendrak@hotmail.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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