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Kyrgyzstan: Region looks on with
concern
By Jeremy Bransten
PRAGUE - Georgia's Rose Revolution and
Ukraine's Orange Revolution provoked strong
reactions and even direct involvement from foreign
governments. But when it comes to Kyrgyzstan,
international reaction has been more muted and
less partisan.
Georgian President Mikheil
Saaksahvili provides a good example. While the
Georgian leader enthusiastically backed Ukrainian
demonstrators when they took to the streets of
Kyiv, this time his approach has been scrupulously
even-handed.
Saakashvili has refrained
from criticizing the Kyrgyz government. And this
week, he sent a letter to President Askar Akayev,
offering his services as an intermediary for
constructive negotiations with the opposition.
A wave of opposition protests across the
south continues to keep up pressure on the
president to resign over alleged vote fraud.
Protesters this week seized control of government
buildings in two of Kyrgyzstan's seven regional
capitals and a number of smaller locales.
Russia helped facilitate the transition of
power during Georgia's Rose Revolution, but was
heavily criticized for its anti-opposition bias in
Ukraine. With Kyrgyzstan, it has limited its
comments to appeals for calm.
Russia media
have reported that Akayev was not granted a
meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin when
he flew to Moscow for consultations, shortly after
the crisis began. This indicates that, at least
officially, the Kremlin does not want to be seen
playing favorites.
Konstantin Zatulin, a
member of the State Duma's Commonwealth of
Independent States committee, tells RFE/RL that
Russia should keep its distance and offer its
assistance only if it benefits both sides in the
conflict.
"I think Russia should refrain
from direct interference, look for ways to assist
political negotiations, looks for ways to
encourage the use of legal means, to facilitate
negotiations between the two sides and if
necessary, to act as an intermediary if the
opportunity arises," Zatulin said.
Further
afield, the United States has also put the
emphasis on both sides reaching agreement at the
negotiating table.
Several factors could
be contributing to this cautious approach. Unlike
in Georgia and Ukraine, demonstrators in southern
Kyrgzystan have already shown a willingness to use
force, and the authorities have also shown they
can respond in kind. The fact that there is no
unified leadership among the opposition makes the
situation potentially more volatile as well.
There is also the fact the current unrest
is taking place in a setting that could easily
become ethnically charged. Memories of the deadly
1990 Osh riots that pitted Kyrgyz against ethnic
Uzbeks are a source of current concern. More than
half a million ethnic Uzbeks live in southern
Kyrgyzstan.
But Zatulin warns that Russia
may be forced to abandon its hands-off approach if
riots spread to the capital Bishkek and the north
of the country: "If events develop and spread to
the central and northern provinces, to the
capital, then I don't exclude the possibility that
Russia will not be able to remain on its Mount
Olympus and may have to take a more active part in
events," Zatulin said.
When it comes to
Kyrgyzstan's neighbors, Uzbekistan showed the
quickest response, sealing its border with the
country. Reactions at the diplomatic level have
been more hesitant, apparently reflecting an
overriding desire not to inflame tensions.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan each issued
measured official statements. All three countries
appealed to both sides to refrain from violence
and open a dialogue.
Tajik Foreign
Ministry spokesman Igor Sattorov, speaking from
Dushanbe, reflected widely shared sentiments in
his appeal for calm. "These events cannot leave us
indifferent. Tajikistan, which recently lived
through the horrors of a civil war, has always
called and continues to call for a peaceful
resolution of these problems at the negotiating
table, within the law and according to the
constitution of the Kyrgyz Republic. No political
aims, no matter how noble their intentions, can
justify the use of violence and illegal actions
and the radical expression of political ambition.
This can have extremely dangerous consequences for
peace and stability, not only in brotherly
Kyrgyzstan, but in the region as a whole,"
Sattorov said.
The deputy chairman of
Tajikistan's Social Democratic Party, Shokir
Hakimov, tells RFE/RL regional leaders are
especially worried the Kyrgyz protests could
inspire opposition movements in other parts of
Central Asia. "The difficulties that the
democratization process is facing in Kyrgyzstan
are the same as in Tajikistan and the whole
region, so an impact [from events in Kyrgyzstan]
cannot be avoided," Hakimov said.
Several
pro-government deputies in Kazakhstan have already
called for a law banning all political
demonstrations in the wake of national elections
there.
(RFE/RL's Uzbek and Tajik services
contributed to this report.)
Copyright
(c) 2005, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the
permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036 |
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