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After the dust
settles
By Daniel Kimmage
In a few tense hours on Thursday, the
political tremors that had been gathering strength
in Kyrgyzstan since parliamentary elections in
late February converged on the country's capital
in an earthquake that bore all the earmarks of a
revolution.
With
the dust still settling, four key issues have
already emerged to frame subsequent events -
stability, the leadership of the  opposition, the
opposition's political program and the effect of
Kyrgyzstan's revolutionary change on its Central
Asian neighbors.
Whatever new government emerges after the
ouster of president Askar Akayev, its most urgent
task will be to establish its control over the
country and prevent any slide into disorder. While
the takeover of government buildings in Bishkek
occurred after scuffles that left several dozens
injured, no confirmed fatalities were reported, as
was the case with the previous seizure of
provincial administrative offices in Jalalabad and
Osh in the south.
Nevertheless, the extent
of opposition leaders' control over the crowd was
not entirely clear. According to RFE/RL's Kyrgyz
Service, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, leader of the People's
Movement of Kyrgyzstan, told protesters after the
takeover: "We didn't have the slightest idea [that
things would turn out this way]. Just today in the
morning we had no idea that people would take the
White House."
Parliament has appointed
Bakiyev as acting premier and president.
As night fell in Bishkek, RIA-Novosti
reported, citing a law-enforcement source in
Bishkek, that looters had struck several stores.
Opposition leaders have delivered televised calls
for restraint, but the first real test of any new
government will be to ensure that those calls are
heeded.
Fragmented opposition
The second issue involves the
selection of an actual government from the
ranks of Kyrgyzstan's notoriously fragmented
opposition. At an emergency session late Thursday, lawmakers
from the previous parliament - the newly elected
parliament having lost its powers after the
Supreme Court revoked its mandate - named Ishenbai
Kadyrbekov acting president, RIA-Novosti reported.
Kadyrbekov, an opposition candidate in
recent parliamentary elections whose
disqualification sparked protests, is likely a
temporary figure for the top post. For now, the
Coordinating Council of Popular Unity, headed by
former prime minister Kurmanbek Bakiyev, will
assume the duties of a government.
Bakiyev, who has increasingly taken on the
mantle of opposition leader during recent
protests, is a serious contender for the
presidency, but Felix Kulov's release from prison
introduces another authoritative figure into the
equation. Although Kulov has already said that he
does not intend to become president, the situation
remains fluid.
Leaving aside the various
regional and biographical factors that would speak
in favor of splitting the posts of president and
prime minister in some fashion between Bakiyev and
Kulov, or other combinations involving other
figures, the lack of an obvious choice to lead an
opposition government underscores the first hurdle
the various figures who make up the opposition
will have to overcome.
Once a new government
is in place, its members will face a dilemma
familiar to all political figures who have defined
themselves in opposition to an entrenched regime.
When the regime's hold on power is firm enough to
stymie real political competition, the
out-of-power opposition's program inexorably
devolves to a rejection of the status quo.
Now that the status quo has changed so
suddenly and so radically, the opposition, left to
its own devices without the foe against which it
has framed itself for so long, faces the task of
fashioning concrete policies to govern a country
mired in pressing social, economic and political
problems.
Finally, while it is difficult
to gauge the regional implications of events in
progress, March 24 in Kyrgyzstan is already
setting in motion a regional paradigm shift. Even
as momentous changes in Georgia and Ukraine
brought to light unexpected possibilities in
post-Soviet politics, Central Asia stood firm as
the one place where democracy's inroads seemed too
torturous to lead to a different, let alone
better, future. Kyrgyzstan now finds itself at the
beginning of a road paved with uncertainties, but
it has at least demonstrated the power of
unexpected possibilities in a region where they
have too long been denied.
Bakiyev in
the frame
Kyrgyz demonstrators cheered
Bakiyev during Thursday's decisive protests in
Bishkek. Shortly before demonstrators stormed the
capital's presidential compound, Bakiyev told
protesters that rallies in the country's south
were continuing peacefully - with local government
officials and opposition activists working on the
same side.
"All the information is
one-sided [coming from the state-run media],"
Bakiyev said. "In Osh and Jalalabad provinces, the
governors - who were truly elected by the people,
at the People's Congress - they are in full
control of the situation there. There is no
looting either. Police, the power structures and
the military have joined the population of Osh and
Jalalabad regions, and they are all working
together."
Bakiyev has since called for
fresh presidential elections. Many see him as the
most likely candidate to succeed Akayev.
Roza Otunbaeva, who emerged alongside
Bakiyev as a leading opposition figure during
protests in Bishkek, told RFE/RL that she refuses
to speculate on who might be the country's next
leader. "You know, time will tell what nominations
we'll have," she said. "Actions will define
everything now. We intend to seek victory in
achieving our major task - the immediate
resignation of President Akayev."
Some
believe it is Otunbaeva - a popular one-time
foreign minister and co-chair of the Ata-Jurt
(Fatherland) movement - who will emerge as the
likely favorite.
Sergei Luzyanin of the
Moscow Institute for International Relations
(MGIMO) tells RFE/RL that Bakiyev does not have
enough popular support to win the presidency. "On
the one hand, Mr Bakiyev is a very experienced
person," Luzyanin said. "But he served as a prime
minister only for one year. As many experts and
his former colleagues believe, he is not as
charismatic and popular as Roza Otunbaeva, for
example, among the population of Kyrgyzstan."
Otunbaeva, however, dismisses speculation
about her presidential ambitions. "I have no
claims," she said. "I am not going to run for the
presidency. We're not talking about that. Our task
is to overthrow the current regime."
Bakiyev, 55, a native of the southern
Jalalabad province, is a well-known political
figure in Kyrgyzstan. Nearly a year ago (June
2004), the For People's Power opposition bloc
nominated Bakiyev to stand in this October's
presidential election.
Bakiyev says his
presidential platform rests on economic growth
without re-privatization. He also says any new
government will have to ensure the interests of
all of the country's political factions.
But Luzyanin said it remains to be seen
whether the opposition will unite behind Bakiyev.
"The opposition hasn't had either a single
candidate, or a single strategy," Luzyanin said.
"I believe there have been different tactics and
approaches to the situation in Kyrgyzstan. At
present, internal differences are still there."
Bakiyev's role three years ago in the
country's worst political violence may ultimately
work against him. Bakiyev was prime minister in
March 2002, when public demonstrations turned
bloody in the Aksy district of southern
Kyrgyzstan.
Protesters had gathered in
Aksy in support of a popular politician, Azimbek
Beknazarov, who had been jailed on what many
believed were politically motivated charges. When
demonstrators clashed with police, the police
opened fire, killing six people.
When the
police were later found to have instigated the
event, Bakiyev resigned. Some Kyrgyz still hold
him responsible for trying to cover up the Aksy
bloodshed.
Some observers, however, credit
Bakiyev with having a sound understanding of the
country's complex economic problems.
Bakiyev also has a potential asset in his
wife, who is Russian and could bolster his appeal
among Kyrgyzstan's Russian-speaking voters.
Bakiyev speaks both Kyrgyz and Russian fluently.
Whether it is Bakiyev or someone else, the
opposition's future presidential candidate will
likely seek the endorsement of former vice
president Felix Kulov, the head of the Ar-Namys
(Dignity) party.
Demonstrators on Thursday
released Kulov from prison, where he has been
since 2001 on corruption charges. Even behind
bars, Kulov remained an influential political
figure.
It is not yet clear who Kulov will
favor. Emil Aliev, the deputy chair of Ar-Namys,
spoke to RFE/RL from Bishkek before Kulov's
release: "We agreed that at the present moment, we
will not talk about the presidency," Aliev said.
"The most important things for us are peace and
order and the possibility of negotiations" with
authorities.
Kulov's support will prove
valuable to whatever candidate or candidates the
opposition puts forward. Kulov is so influential,
in fact, that he may ultimately prove to be a
serious rival for Bakiyev or whoever else decides
to run.
Copyright (c) 2005,
RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington, DC 20036. |
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