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SPEAKING
FREELY
Kyrgyzstan
curse
By Swati Parashar
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click here
if you are interested in
contributing.
NEW DELHI - What
would be the impact, if any, of the recent crisis
in Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia - that resulted in
the overthrow of the government of Askar Akayev -
on the growth of religious extremism in Central
Asia in general and in Kyrgyzstan in particular?
Kyrgyzstan on the strategic map
With a population of about 5 million,
Kyrgyzstan is a country of nomadic Sunni Muslims.
It is a poor country lacking in energy resources
or mineral deposits, but has been an important
strategic ally of the United States and Russia.
Post September 11, it was Kyrgyzstan that
provided the much needed air base that the US was
looking for to assist in its Afghan campaign.
About 1,500 US, French and South Korean coalition
troops are stationed at a base near Bishkek.
Russia, too, has a base in Kyrgyzstan and there
has been considerable public agitation within the
country against American imperialism and what many
perceive as Islamophobia of the West.
The
events in Kyrgyzstan have once again brought the
Hizbut Tehrir, (HT), an Islamic movement that has
a worldwide presence and network, under close
scrutiny by the international community. After its
initial religious and political activities in the
Middle East, the HT today has a visible presence
in Central Asia. With its aim of uniting all
Muslims of the world under what it projects as a
perfect Islamic caliphate, the HT perceives ample
opportunities for its growth and the realization
of its final vision in the Muslim-dominated and
politically and economically unstable states of
Central Asia.
The HT initially began its
activism in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and
established itself strongly in the Ferghana
Valley. It is banned in several countries,
including states in Central Asia, and the
governments there have arrested and detained
several of its members. Today it is a potent
political and religious force in all the
Central Asian states, barring Turkmenistan.
The HT is of concern in any analysis of
the present Kyrgyz crisis, for several reasons.
The anti-government propaganda of the HT might
have had some contribution to the public uprising
against the Akayev government. We must bear in
mind that conditions in other Central Asian states
are worse and public resentment is high against
these governments. In fact, Akayev, the first
president to face the wrath of the people, was
relatively more liberal and responsive. HT
activities in Kyrgyzstan are concentrated in the
southern part of the country, in and around the
Kyrgyz-controlled part of the Ferghana Valley. HT
members are especially active in the Osh region
and about 20 loyalists were arrested there in
2002.
In an interview given to the
Jamestown Foundation in March 2004, Sadykzhan
Kamuluddin (Kamalov), president of the Islamic
Center of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan and former
mufti and member of the Kyrgyzstan Supreme
Council, asserted that Kyrgyzstan alone had about
2,000-3,000 members of the HT, suggesting that the
HT was numerically strongest in Kyrgyzstan. He
claimed that the government was unwittingly
assisting the HT in its propaganda by imprisoning
and persecuting members of the party. In fact, the
head of the Committee of National Security in
Kyrgyzstan stated in early 2004 that the HT was a
prominent force in the struggle for power.
Apart from carrying out
political agitation in the Kyrgyz state, the HT has
also been accused of terrorist activities, although
it has a stated agenda of non-violence. In
November 2003, Kyrgyz State Security announced the
capture of three HT members planning to blow up the
US airbase at Manas. A number of Kyrgyz nationals
have been caught as members of the HT with
explosives in Russia. Bishkek authorities have
also reported from time to time about developing
links between the extremist organizations like
the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and
the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (IMT) in Central
Asia and the HT and between the East
Turkistan Islamic Movement and other Uighur separatist groups
and the HT.
Along with the HT, radical
Islamist organizations like the IMT and IMU have
also had a visible presence in Kyrgyzstan. IMU
militants have been infiltrating the Kyrgyz state
in the southern region of Batken since 1999,
causing a lot of disturbances in the country. The
2002-2003 bombings in the Kyrgyz towns of Bishkek
and Osh resulted in the conviction of Uzbek and
Kyrgyz nationals who belonged to the IMU/IMT and
who were trained in Afghanistan and Chechnya. In
2003, repeated attempts were made by the IMU to
target the American Embassy in Kyrgyzstan.
Thus, affected by the political activism
of the HT and terrorist activities by other
radical groups, Kyrgyzstan has been a fertile
ground for the growth of fundamentalist Islam.
Mosque building and madrassa (seminary)
activities in Kyrgyzstan allegedly
receive financial aid not only from other Central
Asian states, but also from Pakistan.
The
government of Akayev had taken several measures to
control the spread of radical ideas. One was the
adoption of a strict licensing system regulating
the publication of religious printed matter, by
the Ulema Council, Kyrgyzstan's foremost spiritual
body for Islamic affairs. A number of other
regulations were also passed by the Kyrgyz State
Commission for Religious Affairs to govern
religious expression and counter radical elements.
But it must be pointed out that since the
breakup of the Soviet Union, it is Kyrgyzstan
among the five Central Asian republics that has
adopted the most liberal approach toward Islamic
fundamentalist organizations, and even the HT has
been relatively free to pursue its activities.
However, in the light of the present political
crisis, Kyrgyzstan could either fall into the
hands of radical Islamic elements or the liberal
approach could undergo a change resulting in more
repressive policies and rigorous control by the
new regime, which could aggravate the internal
situation.
Implications
The recent developments should be a cause for
concern to the countries of the region. The biggest
threat in the medium and long term is perhaps the
likely strengthening of fundamentalist forces either
led by the HT or by the IMT or the IMU, which have
a tradition of engaging in violent activities.
A fundamentalist takeover of a country in
Central Asia long visualized by Islamic radical
forces like the HT and the IMU would be a big blow to
the so-called "war on terror" led by the US and its
allies. Central Asia's vast energy resources may
become targets of attack and similar uprisings
might be instigated in other Central Asian
republics, thereby destabilizing the region.
Intensified activities of the IMU and the HT in
Central Asia will also have an impact on other
parts of Asia.
Kyrgyzstan also faces a
threat from Uighur separatists from the Xinjiang
region in western China, who may seize this
opportunity and strengthen themselves in Kyrgyz
territory. China shares several hundreds of
kilometers of border with Kyrgyzstan in the
western province of Xinjiang and both China and
the Kyrgyz government of Akayev had been actively
involved in anti-terrorism exercises and
anti-terrorism cooperation. How effective the
counter-terrorism policies of the new government
and its cooperation with China will be remains to
be seen.
Conclusion
The public
uprising against Akayev's government in
Kyrgyzstan, if studied closely in the wake of some
recent developments, should not come as a
surprise. Opposition to the government was growing
in the last two years and was supported by the
mainstream political opponents of Akayev and
radical Islamists like the HT, each with a
different motive. A series of protests had been
taking place since 2002, the most notable being
riots in the Jalalabad region in southern
Kyrgyzstan that had even led to several deaths.
Several HT activists were taken into custody.
It would be only speculative to
claim that Akayev paid the price for his
leniency toward radical elements and political
opposition, and that more stringent control over dissenting
voices as practiced by other Central Asian regimes
like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan might have helped
him retain power. It is perhaps only a matter of
time before other governments also meet a similar
fate as public resentment is rife in all Central
Asian republics.
Kyrgyzstan is at the
crossroads. There are two possible scenarios. It
can either be the first state in Central Asia to
be hijacked by radical forces led by the HT, and
can plunge into political instability and civil
conflict, or the opposition forces can use this
opportunity to build a stable and secular republic
which could be a role model in the region.
Swati Parashar is a research
associate with the International Terrorism Watch
Project of the Observer Research Foundation. She
is based in New Delhi. Email address swatiparashar@orfonline.org
Speaking
Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows
guest writers to have their say. Please click here
if you are interested in
contributing.
(Copyright 2005, Swati
Parashar) |
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