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Blame it on the
Taliban
By Amin Tarzi
On May 13, Uzbekistan security forces
fired on demonstrators in the eastern city of
Andijan, following attacks on a police station,
military barracks and prison. The government has
said that 169 people were killed, including more
than 50 foreign fighters, though opposition groups
say as many as 750 people were killed.
On
May 14, Interfax reported that according to
information provided by "high-ranking sources" in
the Russian Foreign Ministry, which was also
confirmed by sources in "the Russian
power-wielding agencies", prior to the uprising in
Andijan a "large number of militants, comprising
bandits, Islamist radicals and Taliban fighters"
infiltrated from Afghanistan and regrouped "at a
junction between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan".
The same day, Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the events in
Andijan were planned in advance with the
participation of "different groups" from the
Ferghana Valley region and from Afghanistan "from
the Taliban camp".
On May 15, Lavrov
elaborated on his earlier statement, saying that
"evidently" groups from the Taliban camp took part
in the events in Uzbekistan. Turning to Afghan
President Hamid Karzai's policy of offering
amnesty to most members of the former Taliban
regime, except some 100 who have committed
atrocities against the Afghan people, Lavrov said
that if "we continue to condone terrorists and
apply 'double standards' to them, including the
notion of [the existence of] a moderate wing to
the Taliban," then the "entire region" would be
placed on the "brink of a crisis".
Lavrov's statement brings to the fore two
separate issues. First, the ability of the Taliban
- the resurgent militants in Afghanistan
identifying themselves as the Taliban - to
infiltrate into Uzbekistan; and secondly, Moscow's
disagreement with Kabul's policy of reconciling
with the militants.
The long road to
Andijan
Several factors cast doubt on the
allegations made by Lavrov about the presence of
the Taliban in Uzbekistan. Geographically, for
Taliban fighters to cross over directly from
Afghanistan into Uzbekistan, they would have to,
first, reach the northern regions of Balkh
province - where the Taliban have not been active
since late 2001; second, they would have to cross
the carefully guarded, 135-kilometer border formed
by the Amu River that separates Afghanistan from
Uzbekistan. From there they would have to go
though much of Uzbekistan and/or Tajikistan to
reach the area mentioned by Lavrov.
While
not impossible, to complete such a mission, the
Taliban fighters would need the skills of some of
the world's best special-operations units, which,
judging by their activities in Afghanistan, they
don't seem likely to possess.
Related to
this issue is the Taliban's priorities and
manpower. Their priority is to disrupt the
situation in Afghanistan toward achieving their
stated goal: the withdrawal of US and other
foreign troops from Afghanistan and the
establishment of what they believe to be a genuine
Islamic state. Despite the recent upsurge in
violence associated with and claimed by the
Taliban in southern and southeastern Afghanistan -
far from the Afghan-Uzbek border - the militants
are not gaining new ground.
Manpower is
another issue for the Taliban. They don't have
enough hard-core fighters to allow them to open
several fronts against the Afghan government
forces and their foreign backers. The last
conventional battle in which the Taliban and their
allies participated with a significant number of
fighters was Operation Anaconda in eastern
Afghanistan in March 2002. Their current force
structure is based on small units, which are
easily deployable into localities where they not
only know the terrain very well, but also have
acquaintances or actually live. They don't seem to
have reservists available to be dispatched to
Uzbekistan.
Fighting
reconciliation
As for Lavrov's criticism of
Karzai's policy of reconciliation with most
militants fighting against his government, this is
nothing new. During a visit to New Delhi in
December 2004, Russian Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov also criticized Karzai's reconciliation
policy. According to ITAR-TASS, Ivanov said that
dividing the Taliban into "good" and "bad"
factions was unacceptable to Moscow.
Russia and India were "concerned about the
attempts to Pashtunize Afghanistan", Ivanov said,
referring to the Pashtun ethnic group to which
most members of the Taliban belong. The policy of
reconciliation with the Taliban was tantamount to
"starting a new war", Ivanov warned, echoing
Lavrov's more recent warning. "The so-called
immoderate members of the Taliban are alive and
kicking as well as the moderate ones ... [who]
walk the streets and make claims to be
incorporated in the new Afghan government," Ivanov
said.
While many Afghan media outlets and
the Council of the Ulema of Afghanistan (religious
scholars) condemned Ivanov's statement at the
time, Karzai's spokesman Jawed Ludin said that
Kabul was hoping that Moscow would clarify its
official position regarding Ivanov's comments,
warning that such statements could hurt relations
between Afghanistan and the Russian Federation.
For Afghanistan, any interference from
Russia resurrects very bad memories. The Council
of the Ulema said in December 2004 in response to
Ivanov's statement that his "irresponsible"
remarks "indicate his desire for the return of the
past chaotic situation in Afghanistan", which was
mainly due to "intervention and aggression" by the
former Soviet Union in the country in 1979.
In response to the recent student-led
demonstration in Afghanistan, Karzai also accused
foreign elements of instigating violence and
trying to derail his government's attempts to
establish a "strategic alliance" with the US, with
the possibility of the US military basing units on
Afghan soil, and to hamper his policy of bringing
a peaceful conclusion to the Taliban insurgency.
Lavrov's statements surely add substance to
Karzai's claims, though he did not single out any
particular country for involvement in the Afghan
violence.
Copyright (c) 2005, RFE/RL
Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty,
1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036 |
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