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Cutting out the
US
By Michael A Weinstein
Overshadowed in the Western press by the
Group of Eight summit of leading industrialized
nations and the complications to it caused by the
London transit bombings, another summit - the July
5 meetings in Astana, Kazakhstan of the heads of
government of the six members of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) - promised to have
greater geostrategic significance than the more
widely reported events.
Created with its
present membership of China, Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2001, the
origins of the SCO date to 1996 when Beijing
initiated the Shanghai Five, which included all
the current SCO members except for Uzbekistan. The
official purpose of the alliance, according to its
founding declaration, is to form a comprehensive
network of cooperation among the member states,
including military security, economic development,
trade and cultural exchange.
Translated
into geostrategic terms, the SCO arises from a
confluence of interests among the major power
centers of China and Russia, and the former Soviet
republics of Central Asia, with the exception of
Turkmenistan, which pursues a foreign policy of
studied neutrality and isolation.
The
overall strategic aim of the alliance for Beijing
and Moscow is curbing Washington's influence in
Central Asia to establish a joint sphere of
influence there. For Beijing, the most important
goal is to get a lock on the considerable energy
resources of the region, but it also seeks markets
for its goods, outlets for investment and
collaboration against Islamist movements. Moscow
has leagued with Beijing to restore some of its
influence over its "near abroad". The regimes of
the Central Asian states want support for their
survival against opposition movements, economic
development assistance and increased trade and
investment.
Up until the June summit, the
SCO's effectiveness as a strategic alliance had
been limited by the reluctance of the Central
Asian states to abandon their multi-directional
foreign policies geared to gaining maximum
advantage by playing off the West - particularly
the United States - against the incipient
Moscow-Beijing axis. The picture changed in 2004
and 2005 as the result of successful regime
changes in the former Soviet republics of Georgia
and Ukraine, and, most importantly, Kyrgyzstan,
which awakened Central Asian leaders - including
the new regime in Kyrgyzstan, which faces
determined opposition - to their vulnerability.
Realizing that Washington and Brussels
would prefer pro-Western market-oriented regimes
to the authoritarian, clan-based and crony systems
currently in place in the region, Central Asian
leaders began to perceive that
multi-directionality might be a luxury too
expensive to afford, and moved towards casting
their lots with Moscow and Beijing through the
SCO, paving the way for the alliance to act for
the first time with political effect. The key
figure in the shift is Uzbekistan's President
Islam Karimov, who faced Western censure for his
violent suppression of an Islamist rebellion
against his regime in the city of Andijan in May.
Geopolitical outcomes
The path
to the summit was smoothed and cleared by a
meeting in Moscow between Chinese President Hu
Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin on
July 1. Advancing their vision of geopolitical
multipolarity, which includes removing or at least
diminishing Washington's influence in Central
Asia, the leaders issued a joint declaration on
"world order" rejecting efforts by any powers to
achieve a "monopoly in world affairs", divide the
world into "leaders and followers", and "impose
models of social development" on other countries.
The declaration was clearly aimed at perceived
attempts by Washington at regime change that would
establish a world of market democracies arbitrated
by US power.
With the Sino-Russian
declaration setting its theme, the report issued
at the end of the SCO summit and signed by all
participants included a clause rejecting attempts
at "monopolizing or dominating international
affairs" and insisting on "non-interference in the
internal affairs of sovereign states".
Applying the general principle of
non-interference specifically, the SCO declaration
called for a timetable to be set for the closure
of US military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan
that support Washington's operations in
Afghanistan, but which are also elements of
Washington's strategy of creating a permanent arc
of bases spanning East Africa and East Asia.
Following the summit, the Uzbekistan Foreign
Ministry issued a statement that the US Khanabad
airbase could serve no other purpose than support
operations for the Afghan intervention: "Any other
prospects for a US military presence in Uzbekistan
were not considered by the Uzbek side." Washington
responded that were Tashkent to insist on closure
of the Khanabad base, the US had other options.
Satisfying Beijing's interests, the SCO
also became the first regional bloc to oppose the
bid by Japan, Brazil, Germany and India to enlarge
the United Nations Security Council's permanent
membership. Calling for consensus on UN reforms
after careful consultation, the SCO declaration
rejected deadlines for those reforms and early
voting on draft proposals.
Despite the
slap at New Delhi, India, along with Pakistan and
Iran, sought and was granted observer status in
the SCO, an acknowledgment of the organization's
growing geostrategic importance. Joining Mongolia,
the three new observers see the SCO as a permanent
presence that will increasingly affect their
security and economic interests.
The
bottom line
After an initial period of
halting growth, the SCO has emerged as an alliance
serving as an effective vehicle for Beijing's and
Moscow's geopolitical aims.
Look for the
alliance to continue to further the interests of
the Moscow-Beijing axis as long as those two power
centers are careful to maintain their accord and
the regimes in Central Asia depend on the axis for
political support. As the SCO grows in strength,
Washington's influence in Central Asia will
diminish.
Published with permission of
the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com |
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