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The US strikes
out
By Ramtanu Maitra
If Alfred Nobel had set up a prize to
reward the heads of states for acting most
arbitrarily, President Islam Karimov would have
been a frontline contender.
On July 30,
Uzbekistan's Foreign Ministry summarily notified
the US Embassy in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, that US
forces would be evicted from the Karshi-Khanabad
(K2) air base; the only US military facility in
the country. The eviction notice gives the US 180
days to move aircraft, personnel and military
equipment from the base in southern Uzbekistan.
Rumsfeld in Central Asia
The
notice came days after US Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld returned from a visit to Uzbekistan's
neighbors Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Officially,
Kyrgyzstan has told Rumsfeld that US forces could
continue to use Manas air base for as long as the
Afghan war required. In Kyrgyzstan, observers
claim that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was forced
to reconsider because of some attractive offer
from overseas that he couldn't refuse. Information
was leaked to the press of the alleged promise of
a $200 million interest-free loan. This happens to
be more than 60% of Kyrgyzstan's state budget.
Obviously, this loan could be a real incentive for
the president, who needs the funds to fulfill his
numerous election promises
On July 5, at
the summit of the six-nation (China, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan)
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), held at
the Kazakh capital Astana, a joint declaration
called on the US-led, anti-terror coalition to set
a timetable for its withdrawal of troops and the
temporary use of infrastructure in Central Asian
countries. The declaration pointed out that since
the Afghan situation was now under control, the US
had no reason to maintain bases in the region. In
addition to the facilities in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan, the US has military overflight rights
with Tajikistan.
The statement started a
flurry of activities in Washington. In the wake of
September 11 there have been few voices of dissent
on Capitol Hill about making access to air bases
the center of US policy in Central Asia.
However, six senators, representing both
sides of the aisle, warned Rumsfeld and Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice in a letter that "in the
aftermath of the Andijan massacre, America's
relationship with Uzbekistan cannot remain
unchanged".
On May 13, security officials
in Uzbekistan suppressed demonstrations in Andijan
in which hundreds of people are believed to have
died.
The senators added, "We believe that
the United States must be careful about being too
closely associated with a government that has
killed hundreds of demonstrators and refused
international calls for a transparent
investigation." They suggested that the
administration explore alternative basing
arrangements in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
elsewhere in the region to give Washington more
flexibility.
In response to this, and the
call from SCO, the US Congress urged the Bush
administration to start dialogue immediately with
the Central Asian countries. Soon Rumsfeld headed
to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where he met with
success.
But it seems his trip to the
region created a negative impact in Uzbekistan
(where he did not visit) and Karimov decided
unilaterally to tell the US to close down its K2
base, where about 800 troops are stationed.
A tentative
agreement?
Uzbekistan has been an ally of
the US in Central Asia, but relations became
strained over the bloody suppression of protests
in May.
Washington began a two-track
operation against Karimov. Being the most vocal
salesman of human rights and democracy, the Bush
administration could not shut out the widespread
demands for an international inquiry into the
suppression. The New York-based Human Rights Watch
described the incident as a "massacre".
In
early July, the US signaled that it may withhold
$22 million in aid to Uzbekistan unless it allowed
a full inquiry. Washington had already withheld $8
million in protest at Karimov's record on human
rights.
At the same time there were
indications that the Pentagon would be willing to
ignore Karimov's "massacre" and try to keep him on
side in order to maintain, and if possible expand,
K2. Defense officials from Russia and the US
blocked a demand by British and other European
officials to include a demand for an international
probe in a communique issued by the defense
ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization. Instead, a joint communique merely
stated that "issues of security and stability in
Central Asia, including Uzbekistan" had been
discussed.
Growing conflicts
In
light of the July 5 SCO declaration, it is clear
that something has changed significantly in
Washington-Moscow relations vis-a-vis Central
Asia. One likely reason could be the increasing
hardball approach by the US toward Iran,
particularly since the recent presidential
election victory of of Mahmud Ahmadinejad. Within
the neo-conservative community, which has a strong
backer in Vice President Dick Cheney, a consensus
is emerging that military action against Iran
might have to be carried out as Tehran is thought
to be developing nuclear weapons. It is evident
that neither Russia nor China, the pillars in the
SCO, likes these developments.
What has
most likely upset Karimov in recent days is the
decision by the United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR) to evacuate to Romania
hundreds of refugees who fled Andijan in May and
sought asylum in Kyrgyzstan. The UNHCR flew 440
Uzbeks from Andijan to Timisoara in western
Romania where they will stay before being
permanently resettled. It is likely that these
refugees, whom Karimov considers "terrorists",
will find their way to the Western nations, where
they will promote human rights and democracy in
their erstwhile country.
It is interesting
to note that Uzbekistan served the eviction notice
in the American base only 24 hours after Marc
Perrin de Brichambaut, the secretary general of
the 55-member Organization for Security and
Cooperation of Europe (OSCE), left Uzbekistan.
Brichambaut had stressed the need to strengthen
the relationship between the OSCE and Tashkent
during his talks with Karimov and Foreign Minister
Elyer Ganiyev on July 28.
The reason for
Brichambaut's mission to Tashkent is not clear.
Karimov has little love lost for the Europeans
since a meeting of European Union foreign
ministers in Brussels on July 18 issued a
statement condemning the Uzbekistan authorities'
refusal to allow an independent international
inquiry into the events in Andijan.
The US
has put on a brave front to Karimov's action. It
has reiterated that the US bases in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan are not "critical" to US interests,
although Central Asia is of importance.
At
the same time, there exists a fear in the Pentagon
that the dismantling of K2 will not only give the
SCO a major victory, but may lead to eventual
withdrawal from Central Asia.
At a news
conference on July 28, the chairman of the joint
chiefs of staff, General Richard Myers, underlined
Central Asia, and Uzbekistan's, importance to the
US. He said, "Central Asia is important to the
United States for lots of reasons, not just for
operations in Afghanistan ... Security and
stability in Central Asia is an important concept,
and those that can bring security and stability
ought to be welcomed in Central Asia. Uzbekistan
is a very important country over there."
The Bush administration can be expected to
retaliate. US Congress, which is in recess for two
weeks, will most likely make sure that all
financial aid to Uzbekistan is held back.
Washington may also join voices with Human Rights
Watch in calling for an international and
independent investigation of the Andijan incident.
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