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Calculated
muscle-flexing
By Sergei
Blagov
MOSCOW - Russia's unprecedented
joint war games with China can be viewed as a dual
message to the United States and the Central Asian
republics of the extent to which Beijing and
Moscow are prepared to go to protect their
interests.
Russia is to dispatch about
2,000 troops for exercises scheduled August 18 to
25 near Russia's far-east port city of
Vladivostok, before moving to the Yellow Sea and
then to an area off the coastal Chinese province
of Shandong.
The games are expected to
involve Russia's Il-76 transport planes with
paratroopers, Tu-95MS bombers firing cruise
missiles at targets in the sea and Su-27SM fighter
jets simulating coverage of ground forces. Russian
and Chinese military leaders, including defense
ministers as well as Russian Chief of General
Staff Yury Baluyevsky and his Chinese counterpart
Liang Guanglie, are expected to attend the drills.
The exercises were first mentioned in a
memorandum of understanding between Chinese Vice
Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Guo
Boxiong, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov in July 2004. The countries first revealed
such plans in December 2004, when Ivanov visited
China.
The maneuvers would largely focus
on anti-terrorist drills, deputy
commander-in-chief of Russia's ground troops,
Colonel General Vladimir Moltenskoi, said this
week. According to the war-games scenario, a
fictitious state becomes plagued by terrorist
violence and seeks assistance from neighboring
states (ie Russia and China) to restore law and
order. However, it has been argued that strategic
bombers and submarines are hardly necessary for
anti-terrorist drills.
It is hardly a
coincidence that Russia and China have invited
observers from four other governments in the
six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
- Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and
Kazakhstanto - to attend the war-games. The group
officially aims at fighting Islamic militants in
Central Asia, but the war-games scenario, the
would-be restoration law and order, looks like a
practice for a joint intervention to keep a
friendly regime in power.
Earlier this
year, Kyrgyzstan underwent a regime change
following mass riots, while Uzbekistan managed to
quell an uprising. As speculation swirls about yet
another "color (non-violent) revolution" in
strategically important Kazakhstan, Russia and
China presumably do not mind indicating that they
have joint capabilities to intervene.
The
maneuvers are also viewed as a message to the US,
as both Russia and China are keen to sustain and
expand their influence in Central Asia,
confronting global dominance by Washington. July's
summit of SCO in the Kazakh capital of Astana
seemingly served the same purpose. The SCO nations
not only suggested the US-led coalition forces in
Afghanistan announce a timetable for withdrawal,
they also issued a declaration demanding, among
other things, a limit on outside interference in
nations' internal affairs.
The SCO
declaration, as well as a bilateral
Russian-Chinese declaration on "World Order in the
21st Century" adopted on July 2, did not mention
the US directly. However, these documents are
understood to target perceived US domination in
international affairs. Both declarations
reiterated the principles of mutual respect of
sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual
non-aggression and non-interference.
Moreover, following the SCO demand to the
US-led coalition forces to declare a timetable for
withdrawal from Uzbek and Kyrgyz bases in the
region, Uzbekistan revealed a decision to order
the closure of the Karshi-Khanabad air base, used
for US operations in neighboring Afghanistan.
The Russian-Chinese war games also take
place against a backdrop of the freshly minted
Chinese anti-secession law on Taiwan. During a
trip to China in March, Baluyevsky said that
Russia was against any form of Taiwan
independence, but he denied allegations that the
forthcoming exercises were meant as practice for a
Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Not
surprisingly, Russian officials have been keen to
deny that the drill planners had the Taiwan issue
in mind. Ivanov has said that Russia did "not
care" about other countries' concerns over the
exercises. "The exercises will take place
thousands of kilometers from Taiwan, precisely on
the Shandong peninsula," Ivanov said.
Russian media outlets claim that a major
row erupted between China and Russia over the
location for the exercises. It was claimed that
Russia had pushed for Xinjiang, due to its
proximity to Central Asia. This location would
allow Russia to highlight the importance of its
air force base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan.
However, Beijing allegedly rejected the
proposal, and instead suggested Zhejiang, a
coastal province near Taiwan. Exercises in this
area would look too provocative and trigger a
strong reaction not only in Taiwan, but in the US
and Japan. Due to Russia's insistence, the
exercises were thus shifted some 500 miles to the
north to the Shandong peninsula.
In the
meantime, Russia is understood to have a
commercial agenda for the war games as it hopes to
sign a massive arms deal with Beijing, and the
exercises will be a perfect place to showcase
what's available. Last January, Moscow hinted it
could sell advanced strategic weapons to China,
including Tu-22M3 bombers, known as Backfire in
the West.
Sergei Blagov covers
Russia and post-Soviet states, with special
attention to Asia-related issues. He has
contributed to Asia Times Online since1996.
Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast
Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers,
NY, published two of his books on Vietnamese
history.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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