Afghanistan's parliamentary elections on
September 18 - the first for nearly 30 years - are
viewed as key to establishing a functioning
institutional system based on the rule of law.
On the same
day, provincial elections will also take place,
giving Afghanistan democratically elected levels
of government ranging from provincial councils to
the national parliament to President Hamid Karzai.
Political analyst
Christopher Langton of the London-based
International Institute for Security Studies says
these polls are critical. He says they will
demonstrate whether the people really believe in a
new, democratic Afghanistan, and whether the
government will finally be able to move forward.
"Firstly [they will] show how much support
there was for the election in the country as a
whole, and then, what is the result - I don't just
mean in the voting, I mean, [they will show if]
the government will now begin to deliver on social
and economic reforms," Langton said.
Afghanistan's Islamic militants, primarily
the ousted Taliban militia, have been quoted as
vowing to disrupt these elections. And they have
left a trail of increasing bloodshed in recent
months. They have been targeting pro-government
Islamic clerics, officials, electoral workers and
foreign aid workers, as well as Afghan and
coalition troops.
In one of the latest
attack on clerics, Taliban guerrillas on August 21
claimed responsibility for shooting moderate
mullah Abdullah Malang, deputy head of the
religious council of Panjway district in Kandahar
province.
Malang is the fifth
pro-government mullah to be killed in recent
times. The Taliban says such clerics have defied
the jihad, or holy war, declared against the
Western-supported Karzai government.
However, a Taliban spokesman, Abdul Latif
Hakimi, now says the organization has no intention
of attacking polling stations. Hakimi spoke by
phone to Radio Free Afghanistan. "We have never
said that we want to disrupt the upcoming
elections. It is not important for us to disrupt
the elections. All claims that we want to disrupt
the elections are fabricated by the press. They
want to defame our struggle. We didn't attack
election centers before, and we won't start now,"
Hakimi said.
Given their record in the
past few months, it's hard to take the Taliban
comments at face value. Kabir Ranjbar is the head
of the Afghan Lawyers Association and an expert on
Afghan affairs. He told Radio Free Afghanistan
that Hakimi's comments may mean the Taliban is
seeking a future political role.
"They
want to join the political process and that is why
they have suggested [this move]. They published
this statement and this is their first step to
show to the Afghan people and the government that
they will take more steps in that direction,"
Ranjbar said.
The Taliban were driven into
the mountains after the US-led invasion of
Afghanistan in late 2001, but have reemerged as an
active guerrilla force. Analysts don't agree
whether this is a last spark before the movement
is extinguished, or whether the Taliban have been
able to regroup and remain a viable threat.
Analyst Langton in London says a clue to
that may well lie in how the Taliban deploy during
the coming winter: "They are relatively well
equipped, and of course they are well motivated.
It will be interesting to see, when winter comes -
starting at the end of September, shortly after
the elections - whether they plan to [retreat]
back to the border areas near Pakistan, or whether
they are going to stay where they are, having come
down [from the mountains] this year," Langton
said.
Certainly, US troop casualties have
sharply increased in recent months, making this
the bloodiest year for the American military in
Afghanistan since 2001.
US military
spokeswoman Lieutenant Cindy Moore, speaking in
Kabul, said the US was not deterred in its task of
bringing security to the Afghan people.
"Four US forces were killed and three were
wounded [while they were] conducting operations
south of Dai Chopan in Zabul province. The three
wounded soldiers were transported - medically
evacuated - to a forward operating base for
treatment. Certainly, these type of attacks
strengthen our resolve to continue operating with
the Afghan security forces to ensure peace and
prosperity and security for the Afghan people,"
Moore said.
Just three days before that, a
US Marine was killed in fighting in Kunar
province. The previous day, two US soldiers were
killed in Kandahar province. In total, 65
Americans have been killed in Afghanistan this
year.
Apart from the insurgents, another
danger for Afghan democracy lies with the existing
political arena. Warlords of dubious democratic
credentials are seeking to dominate the voting
patterns. It they can bribe or intimidate enough
voters to back them, they can wear a cloak of
legitimacy and consolidate their power.
Copyright (c) 2005, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036
