SPEAKING
FREELY China and Russia, the new shooting
stars By Arun Sahgal and V K
Anand
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
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Apart from
anti-terrorist military exercises in Kazakhstan in
the fall of 2003, the Peace Mission 2005 military
exercises between China and Russia for a week in
August were the first large-scale military
maneuvers involving the Pacific region's two
largest militaries since the Korean War in the
1950s.
The aim of the exercises, stated as
a mock operation to bring peace and stability to a
fictional third country, were the first-ever
combined exercises involving all three military
services of the two countries.
The total
strength of troops taking part was placed at
10,000, 1,800 of them Russian. The exercise was a
reflection of a new strategic dynamism in
China-Russia relations and showed the desire of
the two principle militaries to develop strategic
synergies in protecting their common security
interests.
The Chinese generals in their
news briefings were at pains to emphasize that the
exercise was run according to the "goals and
principles of the UN", was not
directed against a third country and did not
concern the interests of other countries.
In the scenario projected, an imaginary
nation located in Shandong province was
experiencing mass unrest over ethnic clashes and
the government appealed to the UN for military
help. In the words of General Colonel Vladimir
Motenskoi, deputy commander of Russia's Infantry
Troops, joint action was only initiated "after
receiving a mandate from the UN to separate the
conflicting sides and to establish order".
The exercises were conducted in three
stages. The first stage consisted of a sea battle
for a day, which was followed by amphibious
landings in the second stage, and in the third
stage "forced isolation drill", including
attainment of the final objectives, was practiced.
During first stage, Chinese and Russians
carried out maritime blockade drills at sea
southeast of the Shandong peninsula. Chinese
fighter aircraft provided cover for a formation of
Chinese and Russian warships. Chinese fighters
also engaged the "enemy" in the air. They blocked
enemy planes with air-to-air missiles and provided
air domination over the sea.
The joint
naval formation sank enemy submarines with
anti-submarine helicopters and depth-charges.
Russian early warning (EW) A-50s and patrol planes
guided the joint fleet to attack and destroy enemy
ships. Precision attacks were launched by Russian
and Chinese destroyers against enemy targets using
data from the A-50 and patrol planes. Ship-to-air
missiles and anti-aircraft guns were also used to
engage enemy aircraft. Enemy missiles were
interfered with using infra-red, photoelectric and
other devices to confuse incoming missiles.
Russian anti-submarine destroyers, a missile
destroyer, shipboard helicopters and A-50s from
the Russian Pacific Fleet took part. The Chinese
contingent included three frigates, two attack
submarines and 20 aircraft.
The second
stage commenced with air strikes against the
enemy's military installations on the shore. A
joint aircraft formation covered by fighters
carried out saturation bombing of enemy artillery
and targets, including the enemy's missile
launchers. Ship-based helicopters were used to
support the marines, while naval gunfire support
was provided by the ships for amphibious landings.
Armored landing vehicles carrying marines
assaulted the beach, accompanied by amphibious
tanks and helicopters providing fire support.
Paratroopers carried by three transport aircraft
were inserted deep inside enemy territory. Special
Forces were transported in 18 helicopters to the
enemy's flank and rear.
The assault on the
beach consisted of 12 armed helicopters, one
Russian Marine Company, one Chinese amphibious
battalion and more than 40 landing vehicles. After
securing forward positions, a second wave
consisting of three landing craft and 32 armored
personnel carriers with infantry troops came in to
consolidate the positions secured by the marines.
The operation was over within an hour.
In
the third stage, two Russian Tu-95MS, one A-50 and
four Tu-22M3 (long-range supersonic bombers)
entered the exercise zone and launched attacks on
the enemy's airport. A formation of 18 jet
fighters in nine waves attacked the enemy's
command posts and defenses. An artillery
bombardment commenced after the air attacks.
Propaganda leaflets were distributed over
enemy area as part of psychological operations.
Thereafter, enemy troops were depicted to have
retreated to key positions. Later, 10 IL-76
Russian transport aircraft carrying Chinese and
Russian paratroopers arrived in the combat zone,
covered by electronic jamming planes and fighter
aircraft. IL-76 planes dropped 24 combat vehicles
in the first wave, followed by paratroopers.
After reorganization on landing,
paratroopers launched an attack and captured the
enemy airport, thereby cutting off the enemy's air
link. Transport helicopters with troops under air
cover were then sent to the flank and rear of the
enemy to cut off its sea link. The enemy's main
defense lines were breached by joint Sino-Russian
forces. Tank columns thereafter sped inland,
causing disruption among the enemy. The exercise
was terminated after the declaration of the
successful accomplishment of the mission.
Shooting for real The highlight
of the exercise was the use of live ammunition
during all the three stages. The exercise also saw
China fielding its newly developed air-to-ground
missiles, and air-to-air refueling - undertaken by
two Chinese aircraft (of Russian origin, Su-30MKK)
with IL-78 Russian tanker aircraft.
At the
conclusion of the exercise a defense exhibition of
Russian equipment - mainly strategic bombers and
Sukhoi jet fighters - was organized.
The
use of live ammunition and the participation of
Chinese and Russian forces using a wide variety of
weapons platforms indicates a fairly advanced
degree of organizational and operational
interoperability.
The Chinese appear to
have used the exercise to showcase their
operational sophistication and growing military
potential. While no doubt live firings, which are
more in the form of fire-power demonstrations, are
essentially stage-managed shows, nonetheless their
military value and their message in the larger
strategic underpinnings of the joint exercises
cannot be over looked. The joint and combined
military exercises have an idiom of their own, and
other than testing the interoperability between
the militaries of the nations involved, they also
point toward the mutuality of the security
interests of the nations involved.
The
military concepts exhibited in the exercise were
traditional tri-service ones, along with some new
elements, especially the use of new technologies.
The air-to-air refueling, the use of long-range
strategic bombers and airborne troops indicate
China showcasing its newly acquired power
projection capabilities.
The firing of
precision weapons, developing of a new
air-to-ground missile, the use of electronic
jamming and a wide variety of devices to confuse
incoming missiles - and dropping of leaflets -
indicate that the Chinese military is speeding up
its revolution in military affairs (RMA) with
Chinese characteristics, ie "informationalization"
as outlined in their White Paper on "China's
National Defense in 2004". Accelerating the
modernization of weapons and equipment and joint
training are two of the key objectives of Chinese
RMA. The Chinese also used the opportunity to
showcase new amphibious tanks and armored
personnel carriers of its marine units, indicating
enhanced amphibious assault capabilities.
The exercise also indicates that the
People's Liberation Army, earlier reticent and
secretive about its activities, is increasingly
becoming media savvy. It used the media to project
its capabilities, including its new equipment and
its firing prowess in engaging diverse targets
with a wide variety of weapons systems.
The Russian military on the other hand
used the opportunity to field its latest defense
equipment for the Chinese to evaluate for eventual
purchase. For example, Russia showcased strategic
bombers like the Tu-95MS and the Tu-160. These can
carry high-grade precision weapons suitable for
anti-terrorism tasks. China has become the largest
buyer of defense equipment in the world, with
purchases totaling US$10.4 billion from 2001 to
2004, with Russia being the main supplier.
In search of an enemy In the
overall setting of the exercise the goal
(certainly for the Chinese) was to have a joint
approach toward preventing, terrorism, "separatism
and extremism". However, valid questions are being
raised that if the exercise was a peacekeeping
operation, why were strategic missile launchers
and impact ships used?
Russian military
officials spoke of preventing a local conflict,
but that doesn't exactly call for the use of TU-95
and TU-22M bombers. Indeed, the mission looked
more like a strategic landing operation against a
well-fortified region occupied not by terrorists,
but by a regular army or a presumptive foe. In
other words, the military aims of the maneuvers
clearly contradicted the propaganda side.
The military exercises clearly signify the
larger strategic objective of Russia and China
joining to define the world in multipolar terms
based on commonality of concerns vis a vis a
unipolar world dominated by the US.
The
exercise was witnessed by the defense ministers of
several Central Asian countries that are members
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as
well as recently inducted observers, India and
Pakistan. The exercise was thus also a
confidence-building exercise to exhibit Russian
and Chinese military resolve to contribute to the
security of Central Asia against interventionist
external powers.
The exercise
understandably generated a lot of interest and
speculation, and the American Pacific Command
monitored events through sensor and surveillance
devices, especially the interoperability levels
attained by the joint forces, command and control
arrangements, organizational structures used in
the exercise, the effectiveness of various weapon
systems and other military parameters to assess
capabilities, especially of the Chinese military.
The exercise also set alarm bells ringing
in East Asia, and to a degree in Southeast Asia.
Taiwan was particularly upset and Taipei indicated
that the real aim of the maneuvers was a rehearsal
for the invasion of Taiwan, and it called
Beijing's involvement the "the biggest security
threat in the Asiatic-Pacific".
Taiwan's
nervous reaction is whetted by the fact that
earlier this year Beijing passed a law on China's
territorial integrity in which it equated any
calls to secede - including Taiwan's - with
terrorism. Taking into account the anti-terrorist
character of the maneuvers, the Taiwanese
apparently saw this as a blatant Chinese attempt
at intimidation.
Like Taiwan, Japan
expressed its concerns. Relations between Tokyo
and Beijing are far from ideal, and both countries
aim for leadership in the Pacific region and are
in constant conflict, in particular over
territories around the Senkaku archipelago and
over the development of oil and gas wells in the
Eastern China Sea. In addition, the Japanese
government has never concealed the fact that it's
worried about China's growing military potential.
Tokyo has of late openly articulated its
concerns about a growing "Chinese military threat"
and its new defense policy outline clearly
articulates China as an emerging security
challenge. China, too, continues to voice vicious
antagonism and looks at Japan as a potential
challenger.
The exercise also has the
United States concerned. While the official
reaction was somewhat muted, experts and analysts
believe the joint maneuvers may become the
cornerstone of a military bloc between Moscow and
Beijing as a counterbalance to the US in the
Pacific region. This is particularly so as the
exercise came at a time when US forces are
overstretched and would be hard-put to meet a
contingency in, say, the Korean peninsula, or for
that matter in Central Asia, effectively
emphasizing the limits of US power.
The
question arises, does the exercise showcase an
early tendency on the part of China to move toward
an assertive strategy, rather than following its
oft-stated policy of peaceful rise? It could be
so, or perhaps it is too early to make a
determination. Chinese defense officials consider
the exercise as good practice and promotion of the
new concept of security being advocated by
Beijing, that is, "mutual trust, mutual benefit,
equality and cooperation". (This mantra is
repeated at most of the conferences and seminars
the Chinese attend.)
While China
demonstrated its political will to take Taiwan
through a military operation if so required, and
protect itself against terrorist and separatist
tendencies, Russia's objectives were focused more
on its strategic interests in the former Soviet
republics, where it faces troubling times. There
is a general perception that growing Western and
American influence in this region will work
against Russian interests, especially in the
context of the fall of a number of pro-Russian
regimes through "colored revolutions" - the Orange
revolution in Ukraine, the Rose revolution in
Georgia and the Tulip revolution in Kyrgyzstan.
Russia and China dominate SCO, which,
though not a military grouping, may evolve in this
direction, especially if Russia has its way - it
has already announced that future exercises may
include SCO member countries, and even observer
countries such as India, Iran, Pakistan and
Mongolia.
Reports emanating from Russia
(not supported by China or India) talk of the
possibility of Russia, China and India conducting
a similar military exercise in early 2006 on the
lines of Peace Mission 2005. According to Andrei
Kokoshin, a former secretary of the Russian
Security Council and a current member of the lower
chamber of parliament, the state Duma, the
exercise could be part of a Russia-China-India
triangle within the rubric of the SCO, which
comprises Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as permanent members.
From the Russian perspective, such an
exercise would usher in a countervailing
multipolar center of power in Asia. It can also be
seen as a veiled attempt to wean India away from
growing US influence. The threat of terrorism is
being used as a common bondage and mutual interest
of the three countries in their respective fights
against terrorism: Russia in the Caucasus, India
in Kashmir and China.
Brigadier Arun
Sahgal, PhD deputy director research and head
of the United Service Institute Center for
Strategic Studies and Simulation. Brigadier V K
Anand, senior fellow, United Service Institute
Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation.
(Copyright 2005 Arun Sahgal and V K
Anand.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
