Blue Stream opens new horizons for Russia
By Federico Bordonaro
The Blue Stream gas pipeline between Turkey and Russia was officially
inaugurated November 17. Its construction, undertaken by Russia, Turkey and
Italy - involving a joint venture between Russia's gas giant Gazprom and
Italy's energy major ENI - began in 1997.
At that time, it was sharply criticized as technically flawed (it runs at a
record depth of 2,150 meters below the sea) and politically inopportune (since
it was said to dangerously increase Turkey's dependence on Russia's gas
supply).
Blue Stream's implementation confirms that Russia is using its
vast oil and gas reserves as a geopolitical wildcard. For instance, on Blue
Stream's inauguration day, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the
construction of new Russian-Turkish oil and gas pipelines.
Additionally, the success of Blue Stream highlights once again the major
economic and strategic stakes of the broad area linking the southeastern
Balkans, the Black Sea region and the Caspian Sea. Russia, Turkey, the European
Union powers and the US are all involved in a complex geoeconomic competition.
Turkey: The energy bridge
The Blue Stream gas pipeline runs from the Izobilnoy gas plant in southern
Russia across the Black Sea bed to the Turkish port of Samsun. The Russian
section is 373 kilometers long (232 miles) and the Black Sea's section from
Djugba to Samsun is 309 kilometers long (192 miles). Once in Turkey, the
pipeline continues from Samsun to Ankara for about 501 kilometers (311 miles).
The Blue Stream pipeline comes after the US and British-backed
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, known as the BTC, was finally completed early
this year. The BTC has been repeatedly labeled as an "anti-Russian" project by
many analysts. In fact, its significance appears to be in its capacity to
transport Caspian resources from Azerbaijan (Baku) to Turkey (Ceyhan, and
therefore southern Europe) through Georgia (Tbilisi), while avoiding Russian
territory.
The US and the UK have steadfastly supported the BTC, notwithstanding sharp
critiques about its costs and somewhat tortuous trajectory. The interesting
fact is that, just as the Blue Stream project comes into being, Putin is
calling for a reevaluation of the entire Turkish pipeline system. Putin
suggested during the Blue Stream inauguration day to build a second Black Sea
pipeline for both oil and gas transfer, which could raise the transportation
capacity from this year's 3.7 billion cubic meters of gas to about 30 billion
cubic meters.
Therefore, Turkey is emerging as the indispensable bridge to transfer Caspian
and Black Sea resources to the West.
Some observers note how Putin's suggested second Black Sea pipeline would in
turn open the way to a Samsun-Ceyhan link pipeline, which would connect the
Blue Stream and the BTC. Ceyhan would then become a major energy hub - which is
appealing to Turkish elites - but, at the same time, Russia would considerably
enhance its role as an energy security provider for both Turkey and the EU.
Thus, Moscow would then be able to balance US-UK influence in the region,
although not from a military security point of view.
Russia as energy security provider
Russian giant Gazprom is likely to get the dominant position on the burgeoning
gas market in Turkey, but Moscow's political and economic aim is to project
such influence to all of southeastern Europe.
With the US rapidly becoming the first security provider for previously
communist countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia and possibly soon
Moldova, Moscow is apparently choosing the role of energy provider to project
its influence in southeastern Europe, and, therefore, to the EU.
Such a pragmatic strategy confirms that today's confrontation among great
powers tends to be mild and open to interesting combinations of engagement and
competition. American geostrategy in the Black Sea region is obviously
perceived as aggressive by military factions in Russia. However, instead of
classically rebalancing the expansion of US military influence and
installations in the region, we now witness a fairly "asymmetrical" reaction by
Russia.
Moscow cannot compete with the US as a security provider and regional hegemon.
This is due both to Russia's inability to cope with American military might and
to regional powers' fears of resurgent Russian influence in the previous Warsaw
Pact's area.
However, given Europe's need of fossil energy and the current instability in
the Middle East, Russia's vast oil and gas reserves are a viable alternative to
European countries' dependence on the American-controlled Middle East.
By enhancing its role as the main energy supplier to the Europeans (for
instance, Russia is also involved in a northern European gas pipeline from
Russia to Germany), Moscow is both boosting its export-oriented economic growth
and increasing its influence in the diplomatic-strategic and geoeconomic
European space. Lately, Germany and Italy have been the two Western European
countries more eager to cooperate with Russia on energy projects.
The bottom line
According to some sources, "hawks" in the Turkish military are keen to
strengthen strategic and economic ties with Russia since the EU continues to
stagger on Ankara's accession to Europe, vexing influential decision-makers in
Turkey. This will give Putin a window of opportunity to enhance Russia's
position in the region as a crucial geopolitical actor for Europe's future
energy security.
These developments are going to increase Russian-American competition from the
Adriatic shores to the Caspian Sea. Such competition will be multifaceted.
Where Moscow can cooperate with Beijing (such as in Central Asia), it could
take the shape of a military-strategic one. In southeastern Europe, it will be
much more centered on economic strategy.
Notwithstanding the increasing calls for alternatives to fossil energy, expect
oil and gas supply to occupy the center stage in Europe's economic discourse in
the near term, and look for other EU countries after Italy to reassess their
energy strategies by shaping new energy relations with Russia.
Moreover, as Moscow resolutely and pragmatically uses its energy wildcard to
both regain influence and protect its interests in southeastern Europe, its
energy production and supply complex will further increase its financial power
and political weight.
Published with permission of the
Power and Interest News Report, an analysis-based publication
that seeks to provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of
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