Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan's ruling leader, was easily re-elected on
Sunday for a third term as president after scooping 91% of the popular vote.
Nazarbayev's victory came as little surprise in Central Asia. Deploying a
captive media and outflanking a weak opposition has been the 65-year old
president's stock in trade for the past 16 years. The president's grip on power
is such that any popular "color" revolution in Kazakhstan, as experienced by
Ukraine a year ago, in Georgia in November 2003 and Kyrgyzstan in March
2005, was always inconceivable.
International monitors, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) will report election flaws, but otherwise outside censure has
been muted as Kazakhstan holds many attractions, not least for the United
States, Russia, China and the European Union, each with geostrategic interests
in the region.
Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic adjoining the Caspian Sea between Russia
and China (world famous for spacecraft launches from Baikonur, nuclear testing
and the dried-up Aral Sea) has been ruled by Nazarbayev since 1989.
Since then, Kazakhstan has been synonymous with corruption and government
intimidation, yet also immense energy potential and geostrategic value.
As in Azerbaijan with President Ilham Aliyev, Nazarbayev has paid lip
service to democracy while exercising draconian restrictions.
Although Nazarbayev promised an open contest, his political opponents - some
wearing yellow in the hope of their own color-coded revolution - face regular
arrest, alleged maltreatment and closure of their newspapers. Critics of the
president or his family can be imprisoned. Last month, a former government
minister (and vocal opposition supporter) was shot dead at home in unexplained
circumstances.
Formal political opposition in Kazakhstan is in any case hardly credible. Even
the strongest candidate, former parliament speaker Zarmakan Tuyakbay, failed to
dent Nazarbayev's commanding poll lead. The others, a combination of greens,
centrists and communists, were too few and fractious to garner significant
support.
Besides, Nazarbayev controls the media with an iron grip. His information
minister cheerfully admitted recently that television air time favored the
president. The main government news agency, Kharbar TV - run by Nazarbayev's
formidable daughter Dariga - and the state-run online service, Kazinform,
accounted for at least 60% of election coverage.
Nazarbayev ran on his strong management of the economy, which since 2001 has
delivered an impressive oil-fueled 9% annual growth in gross domestic product,
and has gained much genuine popular support.
What's more, orchestrating the campaign and neutering the opposition has not
made Nazarbayev, or his country, any less attractive to outside powers. And
Kazakhstan has many attractions.
Moths to the flame
Kazakhstan's lures include key energy resources - oil, gas and uranium - and
its readiness to act as a regional ally in the US-led "war on terror".
First things first. Kazakhstan's position on the Caspian Sea, like Azerbaijan,
places it at the center of a bidding war for international oil and gas
concessions.
Kazakhstan has 60% of the Caspian's oil reserves, producing an estimated 1.3
million barrels of crude oil per day. Reserves are estimated at 40 billion
barrels. Its main Caspian oilfield, the Kashagan, rivals Alaska in potential
and will come on stream fully by 2010. The Tengiz oilfield has been connected
to Russia since 2001 and Kazakhstan participates in a new $3 billion 1,000-mile
pipeline, shortly to begin pumping a million barrels of oil per day from
Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey.
Equally, Kazakhstan is negotiating with China and India to meet their voracious
demand for fuel. Only last month, China acquired rights to annual production of
seven million barrels. There are plans for a further Sino-Kazakh oil pipeline
by early 2006.
European oil and gas majors are also active: excluding Russia, the European
Union has become Kazakhstan's second-largest trading partner.
Kazakhstan's position as the world's third-largest producer of uranium - after
Australia and Canada - also makes prospective customers of nuclear fuel
salivate. This month, Kazakhstan agreed a new mining deal with Japan and
restated a plan to quadruple production by 2010, making her the world's largest
supplier. China and South Korea are also persistent suitors for Kazakh uranium.
And Kazakhstan's energy potential is not her only asset.
The US views Nazarbayev, like Aliyev, as a ''known quantity" opposed to Islamic
fundamentalism. Nazarbayev has been happy to oblige - Kazakhstan was the first
Central Asian country to offer the US landing rights after September 11. Some
observers surmise that Kazakhstan, again like Azerbaijan, could prove important
in any future US-led invasion of Iran. Many scenarios exist where Kazakhstan
plays a central regional role.
Kazakhstan is also important following Uzbekistan's unilateral closure of US
airbase facilities on November 22, after American and EU criticism of Uzbek
President Islam Karimov's repression of the Andijan uprising in May this year.
With Uzbekistan "lost" as a convenient ally for the US, Kazakhstan, along with
Azerbaijan, Kyrgystan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, has more regional
importance. Nazarbayev has courted America while remaining close to Russia and
China in a 21st century diplomatic waltz.
Touring Central Asia in October, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
described Nazarbayev as "a reformer and agent of change" and that Kazakhstan
should take "a leadership role" in the region. On November 17, Deputy Secretary
of State for Europe and Eurasia Matthew Bryza said that Kazakhstan's move to
democracy was "at a pace reflective of reality".
Recognizing multiple advantages, Nazarbayev will also keep close ties to
Russia: 30% of Kazakhs are ethnically Russian and Russia provides vital
transport facilities for Kazakh fuel. Likewise, China, the EU and other
regional neighbors will remain mesmerized by energy when low-risk sources of
supply are high national priorities.
With Sunday's result, Nazarbayev has a revived remit until 2012, when new
presidential elections are scheduled. His favored methods to win elections plus
Kazakhstan's undoubted geopolitical charms proved irresistible.
Ronan Thomas is a British correspondent.
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