NOVO OGAREVO, Russia - President Vladimir
Putin succeeded in impressing a group of foreign
Russia experts at his official residence outside
Moscow recently, displaying his command of major
issues, his endurance during the nearly three-hour
conversation, and - with an introduction to the
group by press secretary Alexei Gromov and evident
pride - his Italian chef.
Delivering a
not-so-subtle message at the luncheon, Putin said
Russia would not work against US interests, but
Moscow would
uphold
its own interests. Relations would only be
effective, he said, "if our interests are taken
into account". And while he valued his ties with
the US and President George W Bush, and wanted to
enhance those ties, the relationship was bogged
down with "many peripheral problems".
Specifically, Putin charged the State Department
with discouraging US legislators from meeting with
Russian officials.
In short, while Putin
is clearly eager to work with the United States,
he is prepared to do so only on terms that do not
damage what he views as Russian interests. Putin
also has his eye on Russia's other options - China
- and even the capacity to play a central role in
alternative institutions outside the West. Putin
may well be miscalculating the utility of those
"other options" and Russia's ability to play this
role - but any attempt to do so could nevertheless
be a significant threat to US interests.
Putin's longest comment about US-Russian
relations came when he was asked why the Russian
media often appear anti-American. He said, "The
press reflects the sentiments of society and the
reality of life - otherwise it is not
interesting." He added that he was disappointed
that some Americans did not see the difference
between official Russian policy and what appeared
in the media. The clear implication was that the
US should appreciate the fact that his government
was defying public opinion in seeking to work with
Washington and that whatever Americans may think,
the relationship could be worse.
Putin
then complained that the Bush administration was
often unwilling to look for compromises and,
rather, insists on what US leaders think is best.
As a result, he said, the two countries only
succeed sometimes in working together. On the US
side, Putin said the "presumption of guilt" that
the United States applied to the Soviet Union has
been "mechanically transferred" to Russia and
impeded an improvement of relations.
Putin's comments on China reveal just as
much about his calculus regarding Washington as
they do his vision for Beijing. Today the
relationship is at its "best ever", he said,
adding that while he tried not to "use such
words", Russia's relations with Beijing had
reached a "historic level".
In fact, he
referred twice to the unprecedented development of
bilateral ties between Moscow and Beijing. He
attributed this in part to a border agreement
signed two years ago that ended 40 years of
negotiations and established the first settled
Russian-Chinese border in history. He added that
"political forces and trends in the world will
dictate the best relations with China".
Importantly, Putin said he saw "economic
activity shifting from the Atlantic to the
Pacific" and said that Russia had an advantage in
this environment because of its location between
the two. Specifically, the Kremlin leader cited
plans to increase the share of Russia's energy
exports directed to Asia from 3% today to 30% in
10-15 years, and noted that Russia had already
constructed the first 250 kilometers of an oil
pipeline from Skovorodino, Siberia, into China.
(Another senior Russian official, speaking on
background the previous day, said China was
financing the entire cost of this effort.)
Putin also said that Rosneft and
Surgutneftegaz were conducting more exploration to
establish when the second phase of construction -
to the Pacific - should begin. Until that point,
as Putin and other Russian officials have said
before, oil exports destined for a Pacific coast
terminal will be sent by rail.
Putin went
further in this direction in assessing the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a body
that many in the West have dismissed and of which
the US is not a member. He said (again, twice)
that he himself had been surprised at the
development of the group, which he said originated
as an effort to resolve "trivial matters" -
technical cross-border issues among Russia, newly
independent Central Asian countries and China.
However, he continued, the SCO was so
successful with these issues that it started to
grow. Though Putin insisted that the group had no
ulterior motives and would not become a
political-military bloc - some in Washington see
it as directed against US involvement in Central
Asia - he (somewhat contradictorily) added that
there was "a demand for the organization" after
the end of the Cold War because of "a need for new
centers of power".
On Iran, Putin signaled
a stiffening of the Kremlin's position vis-a-vis
Tehran. When asked whether Russia supported Iran's
proposal to continue nuclear enrichment on a
limited scale - and whether Moscow could support
mild sanctions - the president laid out three
positions.
First, Putin said that Russia
had called on Iran to "abandon enrichment", and in
the context of the question this clearly implied
all enrichment. Second, he said that while Iran
did have a right to develop nuclear energy, like
other signatories of the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty, including Brazil, none of the other
countries' constitutions referred to "eliminating
other states", and he added that this was "not
good" - clear disapproval of Iran's position on
Israel.
Putin also said that because Iran
was in a dangerous neighborhood, it should limit
its own activities. Finally, Putin explained that
Russia should spend time talking and thinking with
the informal group of six countries working on the
issue - Russia, the European Three (Britain,
France and Germany), China and the US - and
consult again with Iran, and only thereafter
consider whether to proceed with sanctions.
One final note: no small share of the
group - which included American, British, German,
French, Italian, Japanese and (for the first time
at this annual event) Chinese experts, academics
and journalists - seemed star-struck, with
commentators who are often quite critical of Putin
in their own countries mobbed around him after the
session, seeking autographs on printed menus.
Some went even further, using an
opportunity for comments beforehand to make
transparently obsequious statements, including one
American who compared Putin favorably to Bush in
his ability to answer substantive questions during
long events. Only one questioner directly
challenged the Kremlin, asking why it was not a
conflict of interest for senior officials to serve
simultaneously in the presidential administration
and as the heads of major state-controlled
companies.
Putin may be surprised to note
the contrast between what some foreign
commentators expressed during the lunch and what
they regularly write at home - not to mention what
they might publish on their return.
Paul J Saunders is the publisher
of National Interest Online and executive director
of the Nixon Center.
(The original
article can be viewed by clicking here.)
