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3 US shadow over
China-Russia ties By M K
Bhadrakumar
becoming a raw nerve?
China is peeved that a Russian priority is for the
Western market. Russia is stubbornly rebuffing
China's bid to establish a significant presence in
its oil industry and is also going slow in
translating into practice the promise of building
an East Siberian pipeline for transporting oil to
Asia-Pacific countries, including China.
China harbors worries about energy
cooperation with Russia. Beijing closely watched
the ramifications of the Russia-Belarus
standoff in January. Chinese
commentaries carefully studied how European
consumer countries reacted to the standoff. It
wasn't lost on China that the European Union
suffered badly in the Russia-Belarus oil row.
Russia's image and credibility certainly took a
beating. Chinese commentators took note that
dependence on foreign energy has its pitfalls,
especially over-dependence on a single source.
They assessed that energy security wasn't after
all a purely economic issue. Most important, they
saw how intrinsically tied Russian foreign policy
is to its energy exports. (And Belarus was one of
Russia's closest allies.)
A Chinese
commentator noted, "From the perspective of energy
security, European countries should diversify
energy import channels and expand imports from the
North Sea, Middle East and Central Asian countries
to lessen their dependence on Russian energy." He
could as well have been spelling out an
energy-security strategy for China. Conceivably,
China increasingly finds its interests converging
with the energy policy of the European countries
(and the US) as regards reducing dependence on
Russia, diversifying energy supplies, exploring
alternative energy resources, and seeking better
energy conservation methods.
Obstacles
in the strategic partnership Russia, on
its part, is uncomfortable with the idea that it
is becoming a raw-material supplier for the
Chinese economy while exports of its manufactured
goods are steadily declining. China resents the
fact that advanced military technology that Russia
readily shares with India is held back from China.
It is not uncommon for Russian media to discuss
the perils of Chinese migration into Russia's
vast, vacant spaces in Siberia and the Far East.
The average Russian's perceptions of China leave a
lot to be desired. They consider Russia's destiny
to be linked to Europe.
Hu told the
Russian media ahead of his visit to Moscow that
Beijing sees 2007 as a "significant period" in
China-Russia relations. He said that as the two
countries enter their second decade of relations
of partnership and strategic interaction, a
qualitatively new stage is commencing. On Monday,
during talks with Putin, Hu developed this theme.
Chinese media reported that Hu made
"several proposals" in the direction of enhancing
the two countries' strategic partnership. First,
Hu told Putin, both countries should become
"sincere political partners of mutual trust".
Second, they must view their bilateral
relationship as a "priority in each other's
foreign policy". Third, they must "enhance support
on issues concerning each other's core interests".
Fourth, mutual benefit and a long-term
perspective must characterize their economic
cooperation. Fifth, Hu stressed that the two
countries should "help each other in security
cooperation, strengthen strategic security
cooperation ... push forward security cooperation
within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, maintain regional security and
stability".
Finally, Hu proposed, China
and Russia should "cooperate closely to promote a
multipolar world, maintain strategic balance and
stability in the world, cement consensus,
eliminate disputes and conflicts, and contribute
to world peace, stability and development".
We do not have an account yet from Moscow
as to how Putin responded to Hu's "proposals", but
from what Hu said, the Achilles' heel in the
Russia-China strategic partnership becomes
self-evident - an overall trust deficit in
relations and divergent foreign-policy priorities.
But Hu sidestepped the central issue that
lies right across the path of the China-Russia
strategic partnership, which is that Moscow is
watching with dismay as China shifts gear to a
more mature, confident and predictable
relationship with the United States at a juncture
when Russia's own relations with the US have
plunged to their lowest level in the post-Cold War
era and are possibly in a state of deep chill.
Washington's differentiated policy
Without doubt, Washington has in recent
months pursued a differentiated policy toward
Russia and China. The aggressive manner in which
it seeks the rolling back of Russian influence in
the post-Soviet space is completely lacking when
it comes to China's lengthening shadows in Asia
(or Africa and Latin America). Washington could be
calculating that the differentiated approach puts
added pressure on Russia and holds the potential
to "isolate" Moscow incrementally.
But
there is a world of difference between the
respective approaches of Moscow and Beijing in
countering the US policy of containment toward
them. China is also an engaging partner. Russia
may be an energy superpower, while China has much
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