Page 3 of
4 In the trenches of the new cold
war By M K Bhadrakumar
systems in Canada or Cuba, we
[Washington] would react much the same way. We are
surrounding them and getting closer to their
territorial boundaries."
On the other
hand, Washington is counting on the shift to the
right in the locus of European politics. It is
much to Moscow's disadvantage that Nicolas Sarkozy
is on course to succeed
Jacques Chirac as French
president. That leaves Romano Prodi in Rome as the
lone ranger from Moscow's side. Moscow would have
assessed that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is
already playing for time. She refuses to be pinned
down on the missile-defense controversy. In
essence, Merkel believes in the benefits of closer
trans-Atlantic cooperation.
Der Spiegel
reported last week in an exclusive report that
Merkel, Bush and European Commission President
Jose Manuel Barroso have agreed to set up a
wide-ranging economic partnership between the
European Union and the United States that "would
have the aim of dismantling the non-tariff
barriers to trade". The German daily revealed that
a confidential draft has already been drawn up for
a treaty establishing a "new trans-Atlantic
economic partnership" that will be signed at the
EU-US summit in Washington next week.
The
rationale behind the initiative, which originated
from Washington, is that Western governments must
act quickly to combat the rise of China ("dark
superpower") and Asia. To quote Der Spiegel, "The
role NATO played in an age of military threat
could be played by a trans-Atlantic free-trade
zone in today's age of economic confrontation. The
two economic zones - EU and the US (perhaps with
the addition of Canada) - could stem the dwindling
of Western market power by joining forces.
Together the Europeans and the Americans are still
a force to be reckoned with. Representing about
13% of the world's population and 60% of today's
global economic power, they stand ready to act as
producers and consumers not only of goods, but
also of values." Interestingly, Merkel used her
keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in
January to push for closer trans-Atlantic economic
links.
Clearly, Washington has reason to
be confident that the residual opposition in
Europe to US missile-defense deployments, too, may
prove to be nebulous. Meanwhile, Russia's
relations with the EU as such have entered a
difficult phase. In a recent speech, EU Trade
Commissioner Peter Mandelson, a highly respected
voice of moderation in Europe, bemoaned that
mistrust and a lack of respect in relations
between the EU and Russia are at their worst since
the Cold War. "Unless we comprehend our different
perceptions of the landscape left behind by the
last century, we risk getting the EU-Russia
relationship badly wrong," he said.
The
EU's blueprint of its new Central Asia strategy,
to be adopted at the EU summit in June, will
likely be viewed in Moscow as an unwelcome
encroachment, especially given its thrust on
developing energy cooperation with the region by
bypassing Russian transportation routes.
In immediate terms, a virtual EU-Russia
standoff is building up over Kazakhstan's
participation in a US$6 billion gas-pipeline
project that is an extension of the South Caucasus
pipeline, linking Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey,
and which is expected to run from Turkey to
Austria via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. The
3,400-kilometer pipeline across the Caspian
bypassing Russia, which is to be built from early
next year so as to go on stream in 2011, will have
a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters and promises
to be a rival to Russian Gazprom's Blue Stream-2
(scheduled to be commissioned in 2012).
Moscow is well aware that Washington is
the driving spirit behind the EU's energy policy
toward Central Asia. Washington calculates that
Moscow will be inexorably drawn into a standoff
with the EU over the latter's increasingly
proactive policies in Eurasia.
Without
doubt, there are contradictory tendencies in
trans-Atlantic relations. Of course, there is a
degree of queasiness in Europe about US power and
influence on the continent in the post-Cold War
era. Much of Europe doesn't think that the US
missile-defense system works, let alone that an
apocalyptic Iranian threat exists. Even in Poland
and the Czech Republic there is widespread public
opposition to the US deployments. The major
European capitals resent that Washington is
negotiating bilaterally with Warsaw and Prague, as
if a coherent European security and defense policy
independent of NATO is never achievable for
Europe.
The European sensibility watches
with dismay that not only has the EU dream of a
big, peaceful post-modern federation receded but
the specter of new Cold War-like divisions has
begun haunting Europe. Many in Europe would agree
with Gorbachev when he said last week that the
missile-defense controversy "is all about
influence and domination".
To be sure,
trans-Atlantic relations are undergoing a major
transformation. Despite all the talk of kindred
values and similar social systems, the US is no
longer supportive of the European project of
integration. True, the Americans were at one time
the promoters of the European project. But now
they have developed distaste for the idea of
European integration. And the Europeans remain
uneasy about US "unilateralism".
On the
other hand, Europe also faces an identity crisis.
The Berlin Declaration, which was adopted last
month on the 50th anniversary of the European
Economic Community, completely overlooked the
objective of the pan-European project. Translated
into EU-Russia relations, all this means is that
neither side seems to know what it wants from the
other side. As things stand, it is highly unlikely
that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of
1999 between the EU and Russia, which expires at
the end of this year, will be extended or replaced
by a new treaty.
Arms race in the
making? After Gates' mission to Moscow,
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Sergei Kislyak
warned that the controversy has the potential to
create obstacles to the development of bilateral
relations for a long time. "It will be a strategic
irritant for years to come," he said. Defense
Minister Anatoly Serdyukov went a step further:
"The Russian position on this issue remains
unchanged. The strategic missile defense system is
a serious destabilizing factor that could have
significant impact on regional and global
security" (emphasis added).
Serdyukov's reference to "global security"
gives an altogether different dimension to the
missile-defense controversy. Russian experts feel
that the deployment of the missile-defense system
is
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