Page 2 of 2 US gives Russia short
shrift By M K Bhadrakumar
inherent
contradictions in the Russia-China relationship.
Washington is also pursuing a differentiated
policy toward China, which creates different
priorities for Chinese policies, and, in turn,
puts breaks on a Sino-Russian axis developing.
Thus, in overall terms, Washington doesn't
think it faces any serious dilemma in responding
to Putin's proposal, as Russian
commentators seem to fancy.
Besides, there is clarity in US thinking -
and bipartisan consensus about the raison
d'etre of the policy of "selective engagement"
toward Russia. For Washington, the bottom line is
that the US needs a strategic ABM system in Europe
that can target Russia's Topol-M, Stilet and Satan
missiles. And Washington is determined to have its
way. Second, Washington doesn't want any Russian
role in the development of the European ABM
system.
The US has stonewalled vigorous
Russian attempts since 1998 to create a theater
ABM system in Europe. Again, Washington regards
its European ABM system as a closed chapter, which
is no longer open for discussion. The US may be
willing to discuss with Russia (or China) the
opportunities, technical specifications, etc of
its ABM systems, but not the deployment of the
systems in Europe and Asia.
Finally,
Washington is adamant that ultimately and
permanently, all the controls and information
pertaining to its ABM systems will solely vest in
US hands.
Thus, last Monday, Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice said in an interview with
the Wall Street Journal that "even though I
haven't myself done the geography and the geometry
on Azerbaijan", the US will be ready to "take a
look" at the Russian proposal. On Thursday, after
a meeting with his Russian counterpart on the
sidelines of the NATO-Russia Joint Permanent
Council meeting in Brussels, US Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates said that while his country
welcomed the Russian offer and would reiterate its
willingness to work with Russia on missile
defense, "I was very explicit in the meeting that
we saw the Azeri radar as an additional capability
and that we intended to proceed with the X-band
radar in the Czech Republic."
A day later,
in an interview with Japan's Yomiuri newspaper,
Lieutenant-General Henry Obering, head of the US
Missile Defense Agency, said that while Washington
considered Putin's offer a "friendly move" and
would study the possible use of the Gabala radar,
the joint use of the early-warning station with
Russia wouldn't remove the threat of a missile
attack from Iran. Obering insisted that therefore
the basing of the ABM systems in Poland and the
Czech Republic remained the best option. He said
the bases in Central Europe would be operational
by 2011-13.
Washington has chosen to
notify Moscow via the media that it intends to go
ahead with the deployment of the elements of its
ABM system in Poland and the Czech Republic, no
matter what Putin proposes. Alongside this, the US
is preparing a hard line on other issues affecting
Eurasian security.
The conference convened
at Russia's request in Vienna last Tuesday and
Wednesday for a review of the Conventional Armed
Forces in Europe treaty couldn't agree on a
document. On June 7, a draft resolution was
introduced in the US Congress urging Russia to
withdraw its peacekeeping contingent of about
1,200 troops in Moldova's breakaway republic of
Transdniestr along with their weapons and
ammunition.
On June 10, during a visit to
Albania, Bush proclaimed, "Independence is the
goal. That's what the people of Kosovo need to
know. We believe Kosovo ought to be independent."
Bush added en passant that he expected
Russia to "change its mind". Last Tuesday, a
meeting of the Contact Group on Kosovo was held in
Paris. Germany, Britain, Italy, France and the US
took part. Russia was excluded. On Friday, after a
meeting with Obering in Brussels, Ukrainian
Defense Minister Anatoly Gritsenko stated that he
was "satisfied" with the US position on missile
defense. It is virtually certain that Washington
will have more ABM deployments in Russia's
neighboring regions, including on the territory of
the former Soviet republics.
In short, if
Moscow's intention was to secure a mutually
reinforcing partnership in the United States'
European ABM system, that is a non-starter. If, on
the other hand, Moscow intended to outplay
Washington in the propaganda stakes, its success
has been worthless. Now, in the face of US
insistence on deploying ABM systems in Europe, if
Russia proceeds to reassign its missile targets to
Europe, that would only make Europe "hostage" once
again in the arms race between the US and Russia.
A phase of recrimination lies ahead. The
director of the USA and Canada Study Institute in
Moscow, academician Sergei Rogov, who has followed
the trajectory of relations between the two powers
over the past four decades, said recently,
"Differences are hovering over a very large number
of issues at the moment. A propaganda campaign has
been conducted on a level reminiscent of the Cold
War." The last time propaganda touched such
heights, Rogov recalled, was after Ronald Reagan
took over as president of the US in 1981.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
more than 29 years, with postings including
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-98) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
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