Page 2 of
2 For Putin, little but a lobster
dinner By M K Bhadrakumar
the Security Council to take more measures
in the sanctions area".
All in all, as
Putin would see it, the challenge at the moment
boils down to avoiding misconceptions that could
lead to sanctions or, worse still, result in
military confrontation. Iran is also careful not
to precipitate an all-round confrontation with the
West. It has reiterated readiness to receive the
International Atomic Energy Agency deputy director
general and head of safeguards
department, Olli Heinonen, in
Tehran this coming Wednesday and to draw up a
"modality plan" to resolve the pending issues
within a two-month period.
Thus, Putin
allowed Bush to keep the momentum of the Security
Council alive. But differences on strategy remain.
Knowing that the Americans are desperate for
Russian help, Putin has allowed the impression to
be propagated that the US is keeping Russia on
board. Having said that, Russia seems in actuality
to be coming closer to sharing US apprehensions
regarding Iran. On Tuesday, Moscow stated that "a
number of additional months" would be required to
complete the Bushehr nuclear plant, and,
therefore, "the issue of sending fuel to Iran is
not something that we’ll have to resolve
tomorrow".
From this angle, a substantial
outcome of the Maine summit meeting that hasn't
received due media attention concerns the signing
of the "1-2-3" agreement between the US and
Russia. It looks like the two countries are taking
a major step ahead in civilian nuclear
cooperation. The agreement, along with the
declaration by the two presidents on cooperation
in nuclear energy and nuclear non-proliferation,
cannot but incrementally influence the Russian
stance on the Iran nuclear issue.
In
essence, the US made a concession to Russia. The
new legal framework would enable Russia to import
spent nuclear fuel that originally came from the
US and to reprocess it on a commercial basis.
(Unlike the US, Russian law allows reprocessing
work to be undertaken on Russian soil.) Taiwan and
South Korea are potential clients.
According to the US special envoy for
nuclear non-proliferation, Robert Joseph, there is
huge scope for business in reprocessing spent fuel
of US origin, since nuclear energy is expanding
"not just in countries like India and China but a
wide range potentially of other countries".
A line in the sand In the
ultimate analysis, though, the outcome of the
Maine summit needs to be judged in terms of the
most contentious issue in US-Russia relations at
present, namely, the anti-ballistic missile
systems that the US is planning to deploy in
central Europe.
Putin put forth new ideas
in the nature of broadening the consultations by
including Europe, through NATO (North Atlantic
Treaty Organization) and the Russia-NATO Council.
But the thrust of his proposals was to make sure
that "there would be no need to place any more
facilities in Europe … facilities in the Czech
Republic and the missile base in Poland".
The elimination of the Polish and Czech
programs, however, is not in Washington's
consideration zone. Bush said, "I think it's
[Putin's proposal on broad-based dialogue]
innovative, I think it's strategic … But, as I
told Vladimir, I think that the Czech Republic and
Poland need to be an integral part of the system."
The hardliners within the Bush
administration are bound to interpret Putin's
proposal to involve Europe and NATO as a tactic to
create and exploit differences within the
trans-Atlantic alliance. They are of course
justified in anticipating discord within the
alliance, since the US's larger continental allies
and most of the "old" EU members are averse to
confrontation with Russia. Equally, their fear,
not without basis, is that a wider European
involvement may run counter to Washington's
insistence on securing uncontested control over
the missile shield.
Washington will have
to balance these considerations against overall
relations with Russia. Bush most certainly gave
some sort of commitment to Putin regarding a
much-expanded dialogue that included the
Europeans. But this may well turn out to be a line
in the sand. Neither he nor Putin has enough time
left to follow through on any major breakthrough
dialogue.
Meanwhile, Washington is indeed
pressing ahead with the programs in Poland and the
Czech Republic. Bush is scheduled to meet Polish
President Lech Kaczynski within the fortnight. On
Tuesday, the Czech government gave the go-ahead to
the US to deploy missile-defense radar near a
military base in the town of Misov, 90 kilometers
from Prague.
In short, Putin hasn't taken
back to Moscow anything very substantial out of
the summit. The Russian commentators probably did
a good job in keeping the publics' expectations
low, and in forewarning that no breakthrough
should be expected on any of the contentious
issues.
That is to say, a tricky phase of
US-Russia relations is about to begin. The missile
defense issue (and Kosovo) remain wide open just
as the presidential election campaigns in Russia
and the US get under way and politicians resort to
grandstanding.
Two profoundly experienced
"wise men" - Henry Kissinger and Yevgeniy Primakov
- will meet in Moscow in mid-July for their first
session within the framework of the newly created
forum set up by Bush and Putin, aimed at putting
US-Russia relations back on track. The best hope
will be that the two great "realists" kickstart a
strategic dialogue and commence a renewed
partnership between the two countries. That is the
irreducible minimum that Moscow will expect at
this juncture.
But Russian strategic
analyst Ivan Safranchuk had a point when he said,
"Russia has thrown the ball to the American side
and given it to understand that if the ball is
thrown back, it will be treated as a grenade." The
high probability is that while Washington may
appear to discuss Russia's proposals on missile
defense, it will be implementing the project in
Central Europe.
But would this satisfy
Moscow? Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov made
it clear on Tuesday that Russia "will have no
reason" to target Europe with its missiles or to
look back at the Cold War, provided Washington
keeps its missile defense systems out of Europe.
On Thursday, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
described NATO's expansion as "a relapse into the
Cold War".
Meanwhile, Yomiuri newspaper
reported on Thursday that Japan and the US are
planning to conduct their first missile defense
drill in January 2008 in the Sea of Japan.
According to the daily, the exercise will be the
"practical part of the Japan-US missile defense
system" and will involve SM-3 missiles capable of
intercepting incoming ballistic missiles in
mid-trajectory at altitudes of up to 300
kilometers. By 2011, Japan plans to deploy a
two-tier missile shield combining sea and
land-based systems.
Chinese Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi will be paying a three-day
visit to Moscow next week. Russia and China find
themselves in the same boat as they prepare for
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual
summit meeting in Bishkek on August 16.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
over 29 years, with postings including India's
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
(Copyright 2007 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
