Page 2 of 2 Russia plays the Shtokman
card By M K Bhadrakumar
to deploy
missile-defense systems in central Europe. Even as
the US wise men were winding their way back to
Washington, Putin signed a decree suspending
Russia's compliance with the CFE treaty
obligations.
Three main considerations
would underlie the Russian decision. First,
Washington has given short shrift to Putin's
proposals at Kennebunkport, Maine, that
discussions over the anti-ballistic-missile (ABM)
system be held within the framework of the Russia-
NATO
Council and all relevant European countries. A
Russian reaction was necessary.
On July 8,
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov had
announced that US and Russian defense and foreign
ministry officials would meet in September and
October to discuss a joint European ABM system. He
proposed the creation of a global missile-defense
system with all participants having equal access
to its control. Ivanov said, "The system provides
for the participation of not only NATO [North
Atlantic Treaty Organization] countries, US
allies, but the whole of Europe, including neutral
states such as Austria, Finland and Sweden."
But over the weekend, US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice made it clear that the
Russian proposals had zero acceptability. Rice
told the US network CNBC dismissively, "I think
the Russians, after a period now of just saying
no, no, no to what we intend to do in terms of
missile defense, decided to come up with some of
their own ideas. Now, we don't agree."
Stephen Mull, acting assistant secretary
of state for political-military affairs, was even
more blunt: "What we do not accept is that [the
Russian proposal] is a substitute for the plans
that we're already pursuing with our Czech and
Polish allies. We believe that those installations
are necessary for the security of our interests in
Europe.
"And both of those countries
[Poland and the Czech Republic] agree, and the
entire NATO agrees. And so we do not believe that
the [Russian] suggestion replaces that. We're
still going to go ahead with the installation on
those sites," Mull added.
Second, Moscow,
while announcing its suspension of compliance with
the CFE, is virtually drawing the attention of the
"old" European countries to the negative impact of
the ABM dispute on Russia-EU strategic
cooperation. Moscow is, in essence, soliciting EU
intervention. It sees Europe as being hustled into
accepting the ABM systems, though Washington
didn't consult the EU in advance.
The US
has virtually exploited the rift between the "old"
and "new" camps in Europe. France, Germany, Italy
and other "old" European countries pay great
attention to strategic stability and energy
security. They don't want confrontation and
tensions with Russia. But the "new Europeans" such
as the Poles and the Czechs are willing to play an
anti-Russia role for historical reasons. By
tapping the animosity toward Russia among these
"new Europeans", Washington has succeeded in
creating internal strife within the EU.
The result is EU is unable to speak with
one voice regarding Russia. Moscow understands
that the strife within the EU is enabling
Washington to establish control over Europe and to
disrupt any prospects of a strategic partnership
developing between Russia and Europe.
Interestingly, Kremlin announced its
decision regarding the CFE the day after the
Gazprom-Total agreement was signed. France had
warned that the US plans to deploy its ABM system
in Europe would "divide Europe". Paris made a
proposal that was very similar to Moscow's, namely
that the only way of avoiding a dangerous arms
race would be by discussing the ABM system on an
international scale.
Third, Moscow would
have weighed that it was not precipitating any
immediate crisis regarding European security.
Russia has merely suspended its compliance with
the CFE treaty. Moscow doesn't propose forthwith
to make any additional military deployments on its
western borders, either. The doors remain open for
negotiations.
Moscow chose to make the CFE
statement while Chinese Foreign Minister Yang
Jiechi was visiting Russia. While receiving Yang
on Friday, Putin said, "Relations between our
countries have reached a very high level of trust
and practical cooperation over recent years." Yang
responded that Sino-Russian strategic partnership
had been greatly enhanced in recent years. He said
the exchanges between the two countries on major
regional and international issues have become
"significant factors for sustaining international
strategic balance and stability".
Conceivably, China will be closely
watching the latest twist in the Russian-US
dispute over the ABM system. The Asian segment of
the ABM system is of utmost concern to China.
Beijing has reason to be worried by the ongoing
confabulations involving Washington, Tokyo and
Canberra (which may possibly include India) over
the deployment of the ABM system in the
Asia-Pacific region. From the tenor of Yang's
discussions in Moscow, it can be surmised that at
some stage China would be interested in
coordinating its ABM-related actions with Russia.
All in all, the weekend's events in Moscow
were linked. On the one hand, Moscow seeks to
neutralize Washington's desire to complicate
Russia-EU relations by fostering bilateral
relations with "old" Europe and energy cooperation
provides much leverage for Russia.
At the
same time, Moscow hopes that lucrative energy
business deals will temper the Bush
administration's policies toward Russia. The ABM,
however, will remain close to Russia's national
interests, given the prospect that the US might
offset Russia's strategic nuclear defense.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for
more than 29 years, with postings including
ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-98) and to Turkey
(1998-2001).
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