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2 Missile row magnifies Russia's
concerns By Federico Bordonaro
military expenses are on the rise,
and Moscow announced a moratorium on the
Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and openly
accused Washington of unilaterally destroying the
European strategic balance by setting up a
missile-defense system without consulting Russia.
At the same time, the Kremlin has adopted rigid
stances on Kosovo, Transnistria and Georgia.
The impression is that Russia wants to
reposition itself clearly as a re-established
global power before the US elects a new
president in the autumn of
2008. US pre-election tactics, Washington's
difficult Middle East campaign, and high oil and
gas prices give Russia an opportunity to
accelerate its comeback.
Nevertheless, it
is unlikely that Moscow will seek an extreme
diplomatic crisis with Washington in the coming
months and years. Instead, it will presumably
formulate a broad proposal, designed to
renegotiate its strategic relations with the West.
Briefly said, Russia wants to renegotiate what it
had to do in 1990-92 from a weak position during
the deep political, economic and military crisis
that followed the perestroika years.
Main implications The
Tsitelubani incident and the following inquiry
have some important ramifications and implications
for both global and regional actors. The US and EU
low-key protests signal the weakness of the
Euro-Atlantic alliance at this moment. Apart from
some sensationalist articles in the press, which
try to validate the theory of a full-blown
neo-cold war, Western diplomatic reactions have
been cautious.
Western divisions, which
stem from the different security and strategic
cultures in Europe and the US, continue to hamper
the birth of a comprehensive Atlantic geostrategy
in the wider Black Sea region - notwithstanding
the sea of printed proposals and studies on the
issue. Russia is successfully exploiting such a
void, especially at a time of US fatigue in the
Middle East and Afghanistan.
As a
consequence of such Western tactical difficulties
and strategic dilemmas, Russia will remain
confident and at times threatening in the South
Caucasus, despite international condemnation for
actions such as those in Upper Kodori or South
Ossetia.
Russia's rigid stance and
military responses to NATO's progressive expansion
in eastern Europe and the South Caucasus has not
stopped European administrations forging closer
ties with Moscow when it comes to energy. Instead
of an either/or logic, the EU states in both
central and western Europe are opting for a policy
mix when it comes to energy strategies. They have
launched new projects with Gazprom (Germany,
Belgium, Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria among
others), but also with the US-United Kingdom axis
in an attempt to diversify their oil - but
especially natural gas - acquisitions.
At
the regional level, Saakashvili's willingness to
join NATO and the EU will likely continue, but
Tbilisi probably expected more support. However,
Saakashvili enjoys a strong consensus at home and
is unlikely to change his firm stance on South
Ossetia.
As a result, Georgia's breakaway
regions will remain highly volatile even though
Georgia's domestic policy appears to have entered
a cycle of relative stability. International
decision-makers will need to consider political
risk in Georgia from a geopolitical, rather than
political-economic, view. Deeply rooted
geopolitical conflicts involving ethnic minorities
and outside powers will remain a threat for the
country's stability in the foreseeable future.
Moreover, although Georgia accuses Russian
peacekeeping missions of merely serving Moscow's
interests, Tbilisi still lacks the capabilities
fully to govern its breakaway regions on its own.
Conclusion The results of the
missile incident's ongoing inquiry appear to
contradict Russian claims and will presumably
augment Moscow's negative image among
Euro-Atlantic decision-makers. However, this seems
to be a calculated risk by Russia. At the moment,
the Kremlin gives less importance to its
international image than to its ability to put
pressure on some geostrategic hot spots.
Driving a wedge between pro-Western elites
in former Soviet states and the enlarged NATO is
critical for Russia's geopolitical interests.
Therefore, look for Moscow to insist on a series
of negotiations on the wider Black Sea region's
conflicts and Kosovo, which will seek to secure
Russian interests and influence. The US and EU
will now have to make a fundamental decision:
either to opt for a harder stance and try to
continue their expansion of the Euro-Atlantic
geostrategic realm deep inside Eurasia, or to take
Russian interests seriously.
This latter
possibility would mean that the broad arc of
instability extending from Belarus to Central Asia
through the wider Black Sea region will assume a
bipolar structure (the Euro-Atlantic combine and
Moscow being the two poles), where Russia will be
able to project power and influence,
notwithstanding the EU's and NATO's enlargement.
Published with permission of thePower and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com.
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