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4 The new 'NATO of the East' takes
shape By M K Bhadrakumar
military presence in the
Asia-Pacific region, East Europe and South Asia,
apart from occupying Iraq indefinitely."
'NATO of the East' The SCO
summit in Bishkek adopted a declaration on
international security and stability, which
contained thinly veiled criticism of the US global
strategy. The declaration repudiated
"unilateralism" and "double standards"; it
emphasized "multilateralism", "strict observance
of international law", and a
lead
role of the United Nations. Significantly, it said
the SCO "always stood for strengthening strategic
stability".
Equally, the declaration
underlined that the SCO would resolutely counter
NATO and the West poaching on the Central Asian
pond. It said, "The security and stability of
Central Asia mainly depends on the strength of the
states within the region, which may further be
guaranteed on the basis of the existing regional
organizations."
The Bishkek summit heard
further denials that the SCO would develop into a
political-military organization. Putin said, "As
for the military component, it is not a military
component as such but rather a counter-terrorism
component ... I repeat that the military component
is not the dominant and most important part of the
SCO. Moreover, the SCO is not a closed
organization. It is not a bloc organization. We
hold military training exercises not only with the
SCO member states but also with other countries,
including with NATO member countries."
Clearly, if the SCO is developing into a
"NATO of the East", that can only happen in the
fullness of time, quite a long while from now. But
in the meantime, security cooperation within the
SCO is assuming new dimensions and has
intensified. To be sure, the possibility of the
organization evolving into a fully fledged
security grouping cannot be ruled out.
In
the short term, we may even expect an expanded
framework of military cooperation, which would
include different formats for forward basing and
equipment propositioning. The turning point to be
watched would be if and when the SCO assumed
mutual security obligations among its members.
On a common security policy, SCO's summit
last year agreed that in the event of a threat to
regional peace, stability and security, SCO member
countries would enter consultations immediately
for making an effective response to the emergency.
But the decision stopped short of a military
assistance article as such, similar to what is
spelled out in the NATO charter.
Having
said that, without doubt, Peace Mission 2007 took
on the trappings of a military drill rather than a
counter-terrorist operation. The drill testified
to the military coordination and synchronization
going on within the SCO in the recent past.
The fact that the exercises coincided with
the political summit, and the extraordinary joint
presence of the SCO leaders at the concluding
stage of the maneuverings, altogether conveyed a
big political message. More important, the SCO
deliberately intended to convey such a message.
Putin proposed at the Bishkek gathering that the
SCO military exercises could be made into a
regular feature of the organization's activities.
Again, the Bishkek summit marks one more
step toward the SCO's evolution into a
"supra-regional" organization. It has gained
observer status at the UN; it is forging links
with sister organizations such as the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations. That is to say, the
SCO is incrementally placing itself on the same
political pedestal as, say, the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, and with a
military profile somewhat resembling NATO's.
Indications are that China has finally
concurred with the Russian proposal for
establishing a partnership between the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the SCO.
In this context, the secretary general of the
CSTO, General Nikolai Bordyuzha, is on record that
the two organizations are well on the way to
signing a protocol formalizing their cooperation
and, furthermore, that they might in future hold
joint military training.
The SCO joint
communique issued in Bishkek says, "The heads of
state expressed support for expanding contacts
between the SCO and the CSTO with the aim of
coordinating efforts to reinforce regional and
international security, and to counter new
challenges and threats."
Of course, there
is a lot of overlap in the membership of the two
organizations. Five of the seven CSTO member
states are in the SCO, while five of the six SCO
member states are in the CSTO. Similarly, there
are overlaps in the spheres of responsibility of
the two organizations. What may well happen in the
short run is that a kind of division of labor may
be decided upon.
The SCO may focus on the
range of so-called "new threats" rather than on
the conventional form of military threats, while
the CSTO (which is, incidentally, developing a
rapid-reaction force similar to NATO's), would
maintain a common air-defense system, training of
military personnel, arms procurement, etc.
US meets SCO challenge Russia's
interest in stepping up the security cooperation
within the SCO is undoubtedly increasing. Tajik
President Imomali Rakhmon made an intriguing
suggestion in his speech at the Bishkek summit
that since the CSTO and SCO duplicate each other
on several issues, they could be merged into a
single organization.
How does the West
tackle the SCO's "challenge"? Arguably, the West
doesn't necessarily have to see the SCO as an
antagonist. The stability and security of Central
Asia, which is the core mission of the SCO, is as
much in the West's interests as Russia's or
China's. The modern-day "foreign devils on the
Silk Road" - drug traffickers, Islamic warriors or
plain terrorists - are of as much concern to the
West's security as to the SCO member countries'.
On the face of it, there is much merit in
what The Financial Times counseled: "The SCO
should be a stepping stone to Central Asia's
engagement with the rest of the world, not just a
jointly owned subsidiary of Moscow and Beijing."
But we live in a real world. In the same
week that the SCO leaders met in Bishkek, Moscow
publicized the deployment of its most modern S-400
air-defense system around Moscow. And two Bear-H
strategic bombers set off from Russia on a patrol
mission overflying Guam in the Pacific, home to a
US strategic bomber base.
The US efforts
to weaken the SCO will continue. The efforts may
even be stepped up. By current indications,
Washington is moving
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