KEBABBLE Good intentions vs good extractions
By Fazile Zahir
FETHIYE, Turkey - Turkey is energy-poor, that is to say, it lacks large
fossil-fuel reserves and has had to spend millions of liras to generate power
from its natural resources with hydroelectric dams across most major rivers,
solar panels on every house, and wind farms on the Aegean coast.
Other sources of energy such as a nuclear power plant at Akkuyu remain
unrealized after a decade of planning, and geothermal energy sources, while
significant, have yet to be comprehensively
explored. Alternatives to fossil fuels currently only provide about 15% of
Turkey's needs, and global warming has begun to have serious adverse effects on
hydroelectric-power output.
Fossil fuels supply more than two-thirds of Turkey's energy needs, and more
than 70% of the oil it consumes is imported. Much of this is from such
countries as Iran and Syria that have a history of hostility toward Turkey, and
it has been forced to foster better relations with suppliers such as Libya and
exploration projects in partnership with the unpopular Israelis in the
Mediterranean.
However, recent surges in the international price of crude oil, which have
taken the price per barrel as high as US$78, have simultaneously alarmed
Turkish politicians and opened new doors of opportunity for the national oil
industry. The record prices for world crude on the Mediterranean spot market
have encouraged Turkey to undertake larger exploration projects and make the
possible extraction of crude from local oil shale much more feasible.
Oil shale constitutes the second-largest solid fossil-fuel reserves of Turkey
after lignites, and total reserves are estimated to be about 5 billion tonnes.
A report from the International Conference on Oil Shale held from last November
7-9 in Amman, Jordan, makes interesting reading.
According to estimates in 1993, a manufacturing cost of $31-$43 per barrel was
quoted for a plant processing 50,000 barrels per day from oil shale. Although
the figures need to be updated, the studies were done when the price of a
barrel of crude was about $30, and with prices averaging more than $60 this
year and predicted to stay high, oil-shale investment and development look
increasingly likely.
Most of Turkey's oilfields are in southeastern Anatolia near the borders with
Iran, Iraq and Syria. This week it was reported that an area formerly littered
with land mines near Mardin on the Syrian border had been cleared and that 21
of 25 wells sunk by the state-owned TPAO (Turkish Petroleum Corp) were now
producing 2,400 barrels of crude per day.
In another area along the same border, the recreation yards of six police
stations have been explored and are producing 50 barrels per day. The guards
have even offered to move out of their rooms to allow more wells to be drilled
in a show of patriotic enthusiasm.
Syria, on the other hand, has been quick to remind Turkey that the two
countries are not the friendliest of neighbors and have placed rigs directly
opposite the Turkish ones on the other side of the border and are now also
tapping into the same reservoir. The rigs stand just 10 meters apart on either
side of the barbed-wire borderline. The TPAO remains undeterred and has
announced that it will drill 10 more wells as soon as it clears more
minefields.
Turkey's proven and estimated petroleum stocks are thought to amount to about
three years' worth of consumption (as compared with the Saudis' estimated 100
years of world-capacity production). Proven reserves are estimated at about 16
million tonnes, and enhanced oil-recovery techniques may allow extraction of
another 30 million tonnes (again compared with Saudi Arabia's 1.2 trillion
tonnes). In 1985, exploration proved that Turkey has oil deposits at very deep
levels, but it was not known how large the deposits might be.
Shell Oil determined that oil at Paleozoic levels would be recoverable and
other investigations proved significant deposits in central Anatolia under the
salt flats in the plain north of Konya. In 1991, British Petroleum began
exploring for oil in offshore areas of the Black Sea, and the TPAO has since
carried out extensive exploration and extraction work there.
It is also suspected that the Aegean shelf contains considerable petroleum
deposits, but as long as maritime borders with Greece remain unsettled,
conflicting claims to the Aegean seabed limit prospects for exploration.
Prospects for new domestic finds in southeastern Turkey are often impeded by
the conflict with Kurdish rebels, and in the past small sites have been
attacked.
More recently, new efforts have been concentrated on the Mediterranean Sea,
especially after southern Cyprus upped the ante in this region by putting
drilling rights up for auction around its own coastal waters. Turkey had
already announced its intentions to carry out seismic surveys in the shallow
waters around Antalya, Iskenderun and Mersin last spring, and tenders for a
4,000-kilometer stretch of coastal waters were opened on August 7.
The TPAO is hopeful that exploration work with foreign partners will begin in
early autumn. Greek Cyprus has negotiated and delineated underwater boundaries
with the Egyptians and the Lebanese, but Turkish officials insist that
continental shelves in semi-closed seas must be decided via a consensus by all
coastal and neighboring countries. The Turkish government believes that the
Egyptian and Lebanese agreements are unacceptable under international law and
is pressuring those countries to back out of the treaties.
Initial studies show that there may be between 6 billion and 8 billion barrels
of crude oil in the eastern Mediterranean, but disputes between Greek Cypriots
and Turkey may adversely affect the political thaw between Turkey and Greece.
The gas pipeline between the two countries, which is due to be completed and
operational by the end of this year, was heralded as a great foreign-policy
success and indicative of a new warmth between the two countries. But a turf
battle in the Med could cause these old rivals to take a step back from their
closer relationship.
Turkey, though, appears to be willing to push at the boundaries of the
friendship to achieve greater oil production. In the past it has been slow to
exploit its resources and, whereas 20,000 new wells are drilled worldwide every
year, Turkey has only sunk 3,600 since the establishment of the republic in the
1920s. The wells that it does have tend to be on small reservoirs with vertical
structures that are easily exhausted or adversely affected by rising water
content.
In almost all aging fields, production is falling despite better extraction
methods. Although the new wells on the Syrian border are producing good-quality
crude, they simply are not bringing up enough volume to enable long-term energy
planning, and new lines of production are vital to Turkey's continued economic
success and stability. Extraction may well prove more important than good
intentions.
Fazile Zahir is of Turkish descent, born and brought up in London. She
moved to Turkey in 2005 and has been writing full-time since then.
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