SPEAKING FREELY In the playground of the superpowers
By Harun Karcic
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their say.
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The Caucasus/Central Asian region has historically been an important area at
the crossroads of the European and Asian continents. Its cities were important
stopover points along the famous Silk Road trading route and they were centers
of education and knowledge. It has always been an area of interest to invaders,
conquerors, and superpowers. The collapse of the Soviet Union in the early
1990s left a power vacuum in the region, and once again drew the attention of
the world's superpowers.
For the United States, the Caucasus and Central Asia drew its attention as soon
as the Soviet Union collapsed, and after the
September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and the Pentagon, the US grew ever more
interested in the region.
After the US decision to bomb Afghanistan, and realizing that its nearest bases
for this military action were in Turkey and South Korea, the Americans decided
to establish military bases urgently in Central Asia, namely in Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan. This move was warmly welcomed by the authoritarian Central Asian
regimes, warmly accepting much-needed economic aid for their stagnant
economies, as well as an end to political isolation. For the United States, the
establishment of bases on former Soviet soil was also a symbolic way stating
its ambitions in the region, its attempt to counter Russian and Chinese
influence and, some say, send a warning sign to Iran. For the rest of the key
power players, Central Asia was an area of extensive landmass, vast untapped
natural reserves, and no superpower influence.
The oil game: US, Russia and China
Oil was known to these regions as far back as the 13th century, when it was
first recorded by Marco Polo, and later by other famous travelers as well. At
the beginning of the 19th century, a primitive oil industry existed in Baku,
Azerbaijan. By the middle of the 19th century, major oil giants flocked to the
region, and by the second half of that century, Caspian oil accounted for 30%
of the world's oil trade. The fierce competition of these oil companies,
together with the war between czarist Russia and the British Empire over the
Central Asian landmass, which resulted in the creation of a buffer zone
(Afghanistan), was dubbed the "Great Game".
The importance of Caspian oil to the world's superpowers was noticed even
during World War II, when Adolf Hitler, wanting to cut off Soviet oil supplies
and in an attempt to replenish his own exhausted oil reserves, considered plans
to capture Azerbaijan's oilfields. However, the battle of Stalingrad, which
struck a heavy blow to his military, as well as the harsh winter and the
weakened Luftwaffe, forced him to abandon his plans.
After the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
the Central Asian states became accessible to the Western markets. New
discoveries of oil and natural-gas fields in the early 1990s once again drew
the attention of the developed Western states, searching for cheap energy
supplies. The economic power vacuum left after the collapse of the Soviet Union
enabled British and US oil companies to invest their much-needed capital in the
stagnant economies of the Caspian region.
The sudden US interest in the Caspian was viewed by China and Russia as an
attempt to undermine their influence in the region. China and Russia had both
signed a number of oil deals, with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, and constructed
pipelines to transport oil and natural gas. Central Asian oil was a cheap
source of energy for the growing economies of both Russia and China, and also a
way of exerting their influence over the region.
The United States too has had big plans for Central Asian oil. As early as 1994
and 1995, US oil giant Unocal and Argentina's Bridas have been carrying out
feasibility studies on the construction of a pipeline, the famous TAPI
(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline, aimed at transporting oil
from Turkmenistan to the Pakistani port city of Quetta, and eventually to
India. The US was interested in Caspian oil as a method of diversifying its
energy resources, and as a way of shifting its dependence from Saudi oil,
fearing that a possible overthrow of the Saudi royal family by radical
Islamists could cut off its oil supplies.
In 1997, Unocal even invited a delegation of high-ranking Taliban officials to
its headquarters in Texas for talks over the construction of the TAPI pipeline.
These talks abruptly ended in 1998 after the bombings of the US embassies in
Tanzania and Kenya, and the subsequent US retaliation on suspected al-Qaeda
targets in Afghanistan.
The idea came to light again after the US toppled the Taliban regime in 2001,
and as early as 2002 Afghan President Hamid Karzai, together with his Pakistani
and Turkmen counterparts, signed a deal officially starting construction of the
pipeline. The construction has been slow because the Taliban have never
actually been defeated, and with their constant attacks on North Atlantic
Treaty Organization troops, they have created quite an unstable political and
security situation. As recently as this year, despite slow progress and
security concerns, the new president of Turkmenistan once again reassured his
commitment to the TAPI pipeline .
On the western side of the Caspian, US and British companies have already had
big success with the opening of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan
(Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey) oil pipeline, with a natural-gas pipeline soon to
follow. The gas and oil being aimed at Western markets made the opening of the
pipeline a major success for the US, which strongly backed the plan.
Islam, the 'war on terror' and political interests
Islam has been a growing factor in the Central Asian/Caucasus region, which is
predominantly Muslim but where religion was suppressed during the long Soviet
rule. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Islam experienced a form of revival,
although minimal because the ex-communists continued to be in power, but
significant enough to be viewed as a threat by the ex-communist regimes.
Islam and all other religions, for that matter, were viewed as state enemies
during the long communist rule, and while former communists remain in power in
the region, religion is still considered a common threat to their regimes.
In Tajikistan, for example, the lack of power-sharing among all the factions in
the new government in 1992 resulted in a civil war, with Russia backing the
pro-communist Tajik government against the Islamic-backed opposition. Russia
then even claimed to be fighting Islamic fundamentalism on behalf on Europe.
In the neighboring countries the situation is very similar. China fears that
its Turkic-speaking Uighur population in Xinjiang autonomous region, where
oppressed Uighurs have been expressing their dissatisfaction with the Chinese
government, has received support from underground Turkic groups in Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan. China views Muslim Uighur dissidents as separatists, and it
even formally requested that the Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities deport any
suspected Uighur separatist who tries to take refuge in their territory. Hence
for China it is important to keep the political status quo in the Central Asian
region, with authoritarian regimes keeping political opponents, Islamists and
any other government opposition at bay.
As for Russia, its brutal war against Chechnya caused some public resentment
among its predominantly Muslim populations in Tatarstan and Dagestan, as well
as in the Muslim Central Asian states. It feared that the rising Islamic
militancy in the region could pose a threat to its security as well as to the
region; hence it too preferred to keep the political status quo.
In its "war on terror", the United States has befriended some of Central Asia's
most brutal regimes, and by donating millions of dollars in military and
economic aid, it has only emboldened and strengthened these regimes. The
Central Asian states have often exaggerated the threat of militant Islam in
their countries, and have used the "war on terror" to imprison Muslim leaders,
and suppress political opposition, Islamic movements, and even any sort of
public display of Islamic identity.
Prospects for Central Asia
It must be noted that the ethnic composition of Central Asia and the Caucasus
is very diverse, comprising Turkic, Persian, Mongol and Slavic peoples. These
regions have had a history of bloody power struggles and inter-clan fighting,
and they owe today's relative peace and stability to the firm control of the
authoritarian regimes that are in power. These regimes that run "clan politics"
by placing fellow clan members in government positions, while ignoring other
clans, tribes and religious groups, ensure only short-term regime stability. A
need for all clans and tribes to be represented is a prerequisite for any plans
for a peaceful, stable and democratic rule.
In the short run, the Central Asian states may benefit from US economic aid, as
well as from oil revenues. The fact that the major world powers such as Russia,
China and the US are competing for their oil gives the Central Asian states the
opportunity to choose economic partners, while not having to accept criticism
from some for their lack of democratic rule and poor human-rights records.
The harsh policies adopted by these governments to battle political opposition
and Islamic movements may be effective in the short run. However, the high
unemployment rates, government inefficiency and corruption, and repressive
regimes may only further infuriate the younger generation, who might in turn
embrace militancy and extremism and cause severe unrest in the near future. The
worst-case scenario is a repetition of the Middle East: the Western states
having good ties with dictators, for the sake of steady oil supply. The string
of bomb attacks in Uzbekistan in recent years can only be seen as a show of
dissatisfaction toward the brutal and repressive government and signs of more
violence to come.
Harun Karcic is a law graduate and a freelance investigator based in
Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina. The views expressed in this article are strictly
the author's and do not represent the viewpoint of the University of Sarajevo.
(Copyright 2007 Harun Karcic.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
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