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2 Russia bolsters ties with
Iran By M K Bhadrakumar
Relations between Russia and the United
States will be put to the severe test in the
coming weeks as there are growing signs that the
US has decided, or has almost decided, to launch a
military strike against Iran.
Russian
observers do not rule out that the administration
of US President George W Bush is yet to think
through its policy on Iran, and the spate of media
"leaks" keeps Tehran and the world community
guessing. They analyze that a US military intervention
would become inevitable
unless Iran relented in its regional policy in
Iraq. It is inconceivable for the US to leave its
Arab allies in the region to face Iran
single-handed.
But then, Russian experts
do not visualize that the US has reached anywhere
near the point where it can claim the security
situation has been stabilized and political
reconciliation achieved, which would allow a
complete withdrawal of troops. On the contrary,
they see the situation in Iraq continuing to
deteriorate.
Moscow would weigh that the
real US agenda is aimed at "regime change" in
Iran. Washington has more or less ensured that all
military equipment (three aircraft-carrier battle
groups) necessary for an air and sea strike
against Iran are already in position in the
Persian Gulf. The Bush administration has launched
a concerted campaign for mobilizing domestic
opinion in the US for an attack on Iran.
Bush has a new cockiness about him, and
Moscow wouldn't be the only capital to notice. He
has certainly lost his fear of the
Democrat-dominated Congress on Capitol Hill. To be
sure, he is step-by-step making a case for war.
Commentator Patrick Buchanan wrote recently,
"Confident of victory this fall on the Hill, Bush
is now moving into Phase III in his 'war on
terror': first Afghanistan, then Iraq, then Iran."
In Moscow's perception, therefore, the
next two to three months will be most critical,
even as Iran's cooperation with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) enters a crucial
phase.
Meanwhile, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has decided to go ahead with his
visit to Tehran on October 16, much to the chagrin
of Washington. The visit is in connection with the
summit of the Caspian states (Russia, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran) that is to take
place in Iran, but Putin is scheduled to hold
"bilaterals" as well with the Iranian leadership.
This will be Putin's first visit to Iran.
Russian stance unchanged At a
joint press conference with visiting French
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in Moscow on
Wednesday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
explained the Russian position on the Iran nuclear
issue. He made it clear at the outset that Moscow
is second to none in insisting on preventing the
nuclear non-proliferation regime from being
violated by Iran.
In other words, Russia
wouldn't countenance a "nuclear Iran". But having
said that, Lavrov added that the problem has to be
solved in accordance with international law. In
other words, Moscow will reject any
"unilateralism" on the part of Washington.
Second, Lavrov argued that the steps taken
by the international community so far - in the
direction of the IAEA board of governors'
decisions and the United Nations Security Council
decisions - have proved "effective". This is borne
out by the fact that last month Iran and the IAEA
agreed to address outstanding issues conclusively;
the two sides elaborated their agreement in an
appropriate document. Lavrov said that in Moscow's
estimation, the implementation of this document is
proceeding satisfactorily and "we want this
process to conclude unimpeded".
Third,
Lavrov spoke in strong support of the IAEA's
professional capabilities and asserted, "We will
rely upon the professional assessments of the
experts from the IAEA." He added a punch line: "We
remember well what ignoring the professional
opinion of this agency [IAEA] led to in the
situation vis-a-vis Iraq four years ago." He
virtually anticipated the US strategy, which aims
at discrediting the IAEA and sidelining it on the
Iran issue, if not elbowing it out of altogether,
so that the UN Security Council gets into the
driving seat.
Fourth, Lavrov spoke
emphatically against any military attack on Iran
and instead stressed the "necessity to conduct
negotiations in a persistent and consistent
manner".
Fifth, what was most interesting
about Lavrov's statement was that he revisited the
big-power discussions last year leading to the
creation of the so-called Five Plus One format.
(This comprises the five permanent members of the
Security Council - China, France, Russia, the
United Kingdom and the US - plus Germany.) He
recalled the understanding given by Washington at
that time to Moscow and Beijing to the effect that
the Security Council's involvement on the Iran
issue would be with "a sole objective - to back
the IAEA and ensure Iran's compliance with the
IAEA".
Lavrov's message to the Bush
administration was plain: "Do not arbitrarily
shift the goalposts now."
Lavrov
continued, "We remain committed to this original
agreement on the understanding that the Security
Council will not be forced to go beyond support of
the IAEA." And, "The IAEA is now satisfied with
the way Iran is implementing the accords on
closing the outstanding issues on its nuclear
file."
Lavrov in effect said nyet
to Washington's latest move for tightening up the
sanctions against Iran via yet another Security
Council resolution. This echoed the statement
attributed to an unnamed "senior Kremlin official
in Moscow" a week earlier, who told The Financial
Times of London, "As far as Iran's nuclear program
is concerned, we have passed resolutions in the
UN. So far, it's enough."
Finally, Lavrov
criticized the move by the US and the European
Union to impose unilateral sanctions against Iran.
He reminded the Western capitals that the original
understanding while forming the Five Plus One was
to develop a comprehensive dialogue with Iran "not
only resolving all aspects of Iran's nuclear
program, but also on economic and commercial
affairs and on regional security".
Lavrov
added, "It was this kind of comprehensive approach
that helped to unlock the situation surrounding
the Korean nuclear program." (Under the February
agreement, in exchange for North Korea's
denuclearization and information on all its
nuclear programs, the reclusive state will receive
950,000 tonnes of fuel oil for its thermal
power-generating plants in addition to the 50,000
tonnes already delivered by South Korea for the
closure of its only operational nuclear reactor at
Yongbyon.)
If Kouchner's visit to Moscow
was to persuade Russia to fall in line with the US
move to introduce a new Security Council
resolution, things didn't quite work that way.
(Kouchner was scheduled to arrive in Washington on
Friday; French President Nicolas Sarkozy is due to
visit Moscow on October 11-12.)
Russia
couldn't be unaware that France is playing a
double game. On the one hand, Sarkozy is closing
ranks with the Bush administration's policies
toward Iran. On the other hand, France is using
US-French rapprochement to share the spoils of
Iraq's oil wealth with US oil interests. France's
Total and the United States' Chevron have agreed
to collaborate on the Majnoon oilfields in Iraq.
The San Francisco Chronicle recently
wrote, "The building of a US-French consensus on
Iraq is largely the result of the willingness of
US oil interests to share the spoils with their
European counterparts in exchange for their
military and military backing of Washington's
foreign policy in the Middle East." In the coming
period, Moscow will have to factor the
"trans-Atlantic partnership" in dealing with the
Iran nuclear issue.
Moscow backs
ElBaradei Moscow is determined not to be
party to Washington's attempt to
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