Page 2 of 2 Russia bolsters ties with
Iran By M K Bhadrakumar
discredit
the IAEA's credentials in handling the Iran
problem. Washington launched a similar offensive
against the IAEA in the run-up to the Iraq war.
Lavrov made it clear Russia's sympathy lies with
IAEA director general Mohamed ElBaradei.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
said on Tuesday, "The IAEA is not in the business
of diplomacy. The IAEA is a technical agency ...
It is not up to anybody to diminish or to begin to cut
back
on the obligations that the Iranians have been
ordered to take" by the Security Council. In
effect, she meant that ElBaradei was freelancing
where he didn't belong.
Russia doesn't
want to see ElBaradei being bullied. Russia would
like the agency's inspectors to report back
without fear at the end of the year on the Iran
file. Russia finds itself in complete agreement
with ElBaradei's approach, which is to encourage
Tehran to move forward in terms of the roadmap
with the IAEA so that by November or December, a
definitive assessment becomes possible as to
whether the Iranians would keep their promises,
and a peaceful solution emerges. Moscow goes along
agrees ElBaradei's view that there are hopeful and
positive signs.
Moscow would have no
quarrels either with ElBaradei's conclusion that
"We [IAEA] consistently searched for evidence that
Iran intends to build nuclear weapons. We found
suspicious signs, but no smoking guns. We could
now make some progress in settings aside these
suspicions ... It's important to exert pressure.
But in addition to sanctions, we must also have
incentives to encourage Iran to take a new
direction ... If we turn up the heat too high, the
pot could explode around our ears."
Bushehr controversy Lavrov's
statement of the Russian position on Iran comes at
a most awkward time for Washington. It knocks the
bottom out of the US move to get a tough sanctions
resolution passed by the Security Council. But the
unkindest cut will be Moscow's confirmation that
Putin is going ahead with his scheduled visit to
Iran.
The Kremlin's decision runs counter
to Washington's campaign to isolate Iran in the
world community. Some US analysts fancied that
Putin would ultimately settle for a tradeoff with
Washington over Iran. US think-tank Stratfor,
which has links with the security establishment,
drew up a smart "checklist" of all that could be
traded - Georgia, Baltic republics,
missile-defense system, Ukraine, Kosovo and so on.
But as things stand - and from what Lavrov
said - Putin is in no mood for bargaining. Moscow
in fact bolstered its contacts with Tehran by
addressing a sticking point in the bilateral
relations - construction of the Bushehr nuclear
power plant. This became further evident during
the visit by the Iranian Foreign Minister
Manouchehr Mottaki to Moscow last week and in the
decision to schedule a meeting of the Iran-Russia
Joint Economic Commission in Moscow.
Moscow signaled that it was sprucing up
the bilateral cooperation with Iran so as to build
momentum and concrete content into Putin's
forthcoming visit to Tehran. Mottaki held
discussions with Russian atomic-energy chief
Sergei Kiriyenko regarding Bushehr. It was decided
that Kiriyenko would accompany Putin to Tehran. It
is a moot point whether or not, as Iranians
subsequently claimed, a timetable has been worked
out for providing fuel for Bushehr and for
inaugurating the plant.
Kiriyenko met with
Iranian Vice President Gholam Reza Aghazadeh on
the sidelines of the IAEA meeting in Vienna on
Tuesday. Kiriyenko later told the media, "I have
discussed the construction of the Bushehr plant
with Aghazadeh. Taking into account the fact that
Russia and Iran have signed an agreement according
to which all the fuel for the plant will be
produced in Russia, while spent nuclear fuel will
be returned to Russia, Bushehr will pose no threat
to the nuclear non-proliferation
regime.
"There are no, and there should be
no, political impediments to completing the
Bushehr nuclear power plant." He said he also
discussed with Aghazadeh the measures to ensure an
early completion of the construction. "I am
satisfied with the outcome of the meeting,"
Kiriyenko said.
Moscow energizes Iran
ties Thus Moscow and Tehran have
underscored that as much as differences remain
over the Bushehr plant, neither side regards that
the issue is the sum total of their bilateral
cooperation. Equally, what is important is that
the Kremlin, in different ways, is making the
point that Russia's cooperation with Iran remains
substantial, and that Moscow is willing to conduct
it in public view without coming under any
compulsion to be sensitive as to what Washington
might make of it.
Looking back, the
four-nation tour of the Central Asian capitals
last month by Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmedinejad, and his meetings with the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders - with
Putin, in particular, in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan -
appear to have been crowned with success.
Ahmedinejad succeeded in thwarting the US
stratagem of containing Iran and to encircle it in
Central Asia. It was no doubt a difficult and
impressive diplomatic feat for Ahmedinejad that he
got the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
and Turkmenistan to agree to participate in the
Caspian summit.
Certainly, Putin's
attendance by far elevates the Caspian summit's
importance. The fact is, among all the Caspian
littoral states, it is Iran that has taken a
stance closest to Russia's on the issues affecting
the status of the Caspian Sea. Again, Russian and
Iranian interests overlap in Central Asia and
Afghanistan.
Russia remains Iran's main
arms supplier. Russian oil companies have been
marginalized in Iraq. Russia would be loath to see
the Bush administration steamrolling yet another
"regime change" in Iran - under whatever pretext -
and thereby proceed to appropriate the oil and gas
resources of the Middle East. Besides, an
unfriendly, pro-US regime in Tehran (like the one
engineered by the US in Georgia) would have
catastrophic consequences for Russian interests in
a wide arc of regions in its "soft underbelly" in
the Caucasus and Central Asia.
During
Putin's visit, there is bound to be renewed focus
on cooperation between Iran and Russia in the
field of energy. Russia would always seek a broad
understanding with Iran so that they didn't end up
competing with each other in gaining market
access. Iran is a keen enthusiast of the idea of a
gas cartel modeled on the lines of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that
was first mooted by Moscow. Russia is hosting the
next meeting of gas-producing countries in early
2008. On its part, Russia has been advocating an
"SCO energy club", which would gain traction if
Iran becomes an active participant.
Of
course, Russia and Iran have a shared interest in
calibrating the "great game" over Turkmenistan.
British Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks, who arrived
in Ashgabat on Tuesday, was the first British
minister to visit Turkmenistan in nine years. He
promptly told the Turkmen leadership that Europe
would pay market price for Turkmen gas, hinting
that it was time Ashgabat looked beyond Russia and
Iran in its energy-export policy.
If
Ahmedinejad succeeds in nudging his Turkmen
counterpart Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to join the
SCO, that would no doubt please Moscow (and
Beijing). The East and West are vigorously
courting the Turkmen leader. Berdymukhamedov is
due to visit the US next week at Bush's invitation
- just ahead of the Caspian summit in Tehran. Amid
the cacophony over the Iraq crisis, Bush has
understood the meaning of Putin's forthcoming
visit to Iran.
M K Bhadrakumar
served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service for more than 29 years, with postings
including ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-98) and
to Turkey (1998-2001).
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