MOSCOW - Vladimir Putin was due to
formally step down after eight years as Russia's
president on Wednesday. He hands the running of
the country to Dmitry Medvedev, a loyal and
longtime aide who sailed through the presidential
polls earlier this year, firmly backed by the
president.
Millions of viewers across the
country were expected to tune into state
television to watch the inauguration ceremony. The
heads of the Constitutional Court, the Central
Election Commission and the Russian Orthodox
Church were scheduled to officiate at the grand
ceremony inside the Kremlin.
Medvedev, a
first deputy prime minister and chairman of the
board of Russian state energy giant Gazprom, is
succeeding his
political mentor and close
friend Putin, who is constitutionally barred from
a third term as president.
Speaking at his
final cabinet meeting as president on May 5, Putin
thanked his administration and talked of the tasks
ahead. "I want to wish everyone success in their
work for the good of Russia," Putin said. "A lot
of intensive work lies ahead. I'm sure that all of
you are ready for it and I'm sure we will achieve
our goals. And certainly, I want to wish Dmitry
Anatolyevich Medvedev success."
But how
much power will Medvedev really wield?
Few
in Russia see the handover as anything but
cosmetic. Putin still enjoys enormous support
among Russians, and it is widely thought that he
will continue to run the country in his next role,
as prime minister.
"I think, in all
honesty, it's not possible to talk of any real
handover of power," says Yevgeny Volk, director of
the Moscow office of the Washington-based Heritage
Foundation. "All the structures of power that were
formed under Putin will remain in place. Moreover,
Putin has taken all measures to ensure that in his
new position as prime minister he will retain much
of the powers he previously held as president, and
to make certain that his role has been
strengthened in relation to that of the
president." Power to the
PM Putin, who as prime minister will
be head of government, has planned the power
transfer very carefully, says Volk. Last week,
Putin signed a decree that shifts the supervision
of regional governors to the government, rather
than the presidential administration. He also
approved a law that makes local government
officials directly accountable to regional
governors.
"Everything is being done in
the government's favor to wield authority and
power," Volk argues. "Putin has already put into
place a raft of changes - transferring people to
the government who used to take care of his
image-making, PR people, speechwriters. And I
think this process of the steady flow of those
influential people who worked under Putin in the
presidential administration to the government, it
is set to continue."
For Aleksei
Malashenko, a political expert at the Carnegie
Moscow Center, the reason for this is simple:
Putin intends to return to power. "I think that
the best way, the best method for Putin, is to tie
Medvedev's hands," Malashenko says. "Of course,
neither one will ever admit this, but that is how
it is at the moment. And if we follow this logic,
we can admit that Medvedev maybe will not stay
president for four years. Maybe he will be
replaced by Putin within a short period of time."
Top
dog With Putin's formal support,
Medvedev won an easy victory in a presidential
election in March, scooping up over 70% of the
vote. Medvedev, who graduated from the same law
faculty at St Petersburg State University as
Putin, has spent most of his career working for
Putin. As a loyal and longtime friend, there are
suspicions he will be a puppet president while
Putin continues to pull the strings, perhaps even
standing aside early to allow Putin to return to
the presidency.
But Malashenko counters
that there is a danger that, in time, Medvedev - a
young leader, at 42 - might not want to play that
game.
"I think that [Putin] will perform
two roles - the role of prime minister, but also
[of] president, the real president," Malashenko
says. "But at the same time, I don't believe that
Medvedev wants to keep the situation as it is now.
Maybe he will dare to invite onto his team some
new people, maybe moderate, more liberal
[politicians] than [those on] Putin's team. That's
quite possible."
Volk suggests, however,
that any disagreements between the two men are
likely to be resolved in Putin's favor. "I don't
exclude there being contradictions between the two
men, particularly on the topic of inflation," Volk
says. "If prices continue to rise - and this is
inevitable, in my view, in the current economic
climate - then I think Medvedev will be forced to
find a scapegoat. And he may not be supported in
this by the prime minister and the government."
Medvedev is expected to name his new
administration by the end of this week.
Chloe Arnold is
RFE/RL's Moscow correspondent. She has worked in
the former Soviet Union for 10 years, first at The
Moscow Times and then as the BBC's South Caucasus
reporter.
Copyright (c) 2008, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
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