In an effort to prod the West to Tbilisi's side in its rapidly escalating armed
conflict with Russia, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is invoking the
ghosts of Cold War battles past - Moscow's suppression of the 1956 Hungarian
uprising, the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia, and the Soviet
incursion into Afghanistan in 1979.
The Georgian leader's strategy is clear. Tbilisi's small army is no match for
the Russian military machine. Saakashvili's only chance of success in his bid
to regain control of the Moscow-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia,
therefore, is to globalize the conflict and turn it into a central front of a
new
struggle between Moscow and the West.
"What Russia has been doing against Georgia for the last two days represents an
open aggression, unprecedented in modern times," Saakashvili said in a
televised address on August 8. "It is a direct challenge for the whole world.
If Russia is not stopped today by the whole world, tomorrow Russian tanks might
reach any European capital. I think everyone has understood this by now."
So far, the West has not taken the bait. The United States and the European
Union are sending envoys to Georgia to try to broker a ceasefire and Western
leaders have issued predictable statements calling on both sides to show
restraint.
Most European leaders, wary of antagonizing Moscow, have strived to come across
as more or less balanced in the conflict. Even Georgia's closest ally in the
West, the United States, has thus far offered little more than rhetorical
support.
Speaking in Beijing on August 9, US President George W Bush stepped up
Washington's criticism of Moscow, calling for a halt to the shelling of
Georgian targets. "Georgia is a sovereign nation and its territorial integrity
must be respected," Bush said. "We have urged an immediate halt to the violence
and a stand-down by all troops. We call for an end to the Russian bombings and
a return by the parties to the status quo of August 6."
Trying to move West
Since coming to power after the country's 2003 Rose Revolution, Saakashvili has
relentlessly sought to move Georgia into the Western orbit and out of Moscow's
sphere of influence. To do that, however, the Georgian leader needed to resolve
the standoffs over the pro-Moscow regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which
broke from Georgia with Russian assistance following wars in the early 1990s.
Prior to Saakashvili's rise, Russia was the only international player in South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, with troops in both regions under a Commonwealth of
Independent States-sanctioned "peacekeeping" mission.
"Saakashvili has been trying to internationalize the conflicts in Georgia since
he has come to office," says Sabine Freizer, the Europe program director for
the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank. "It has been very
much his strategy to make this an international conflict between the
traditional West and Russia, speaking in language of the Cold War and saying
that this is really the last frontier. He's been racking up those kind of
expressions in the past few days, but this is really nothing new."
The United States has been largely receptive to Saakashvili's efforts,
championing Tbilisi's attempt to join NATO, helping to train Georgia's armed
forces, and offering diplomatic support on the Abkhaz and South Ossetian
conflicts.
Europe, on the other hand, has been largely divided. Some EU members like
Germany and France, wary of antagonizing Moscow, have been reluctant to offer
Georgia anything more than lukewarm support. Newer member states like Poland,
the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states, with fresh memories of Soviet
domination, have been more forceful in support of Tbilisi.
Georgia moved into South Ossetia on August 7 in a large-scale operation to
regain control of the Moscow-backed separatist region, following days of
clashes in which both sides exchanged gun and mortar fire. Each side accuses
the other of initiating the hostilities. The offensive sparked a furious
reaction from Russia, which sent troops, military aircraft, and tanks to repel
Georgian forces. It was the Russian military's first offensive outside its
borders since the 1991 Soviet breakup.
It came as no surprise that the strongest European condemnation of Russia's
incursion into South Ossetia thus far came from Lithuanian Foreign Minister
Petras Vaitekunas, who said Moscow crossed "red lines" and committed
"aggression and an outrageous violation of international law". Poland,
likewise, has called for an emergency summit on South Ossetia.
Some analysts say that with the West divided, Saakashvili may have felt the
need to try to resolve the conflicts in Georgia's favor quickly, before the
Bush administration - which has been a very strong supporter of Tbilisi -
leaves office:
"Why precisely now? What made Saakashvili decide that this was the right moment
politically? In my opinion, one of the reasons is that Mikheil Saakashvili
believes the current US administration has certain obligations toward him and
the next presidential administration - particularly if this is a Democratic
administration - won't feel it has any of these obligations and may modify the
overall stance on Georgia," Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of the
Moscow-based journal Russia in Global Affairs, told RFE/RL's Russian Service in
a recent interview.
If that is indeed the case, Saakashvili appears to have badly miscalculated by
failing to anticipate Russia's robust response. And now that the long-simmering
confrontation has escalated from a diplomatic and political clash into armed
conflict, the West's options are increasingly limited.
"I really think he [Saakashvili] has taken it a step too far because if we were
really going to push back the Russians, you would need something like a
military intervention and that is not going to happen," Freizer says.
Analysts say the West does have some leverage over Russia. The EU, for example,
could suspend negotiations over a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with
Moscow; the NATO-Russia Council could be dissolved; Russia could be prevented
from joining the World Trade Organization, or even kicked out of the Group of
Eight.
But its energy wealth, and the influence that buys, will likely prevent
anything more than a mild rebuke. Moreover, the United States and the European
Union badly need Russia's cooperation on issues like curbing Iran's nuclear
program.
But in the end, Moscow's efforts to be viewed as a responsible global player
will certainly suffer a serious blow due to the conflict.
"Russia's image is going to take a battering," Freizer says. "Russia has been
trying increase its international legitimacy as a defender of international
law, not only in the Caucasus but also we've been seeing this in the Balkans as
well with the positions Russia has been taking on Kosovo. It is going to be
more difficult for them to stand in front of the Security Council as the big
defender of international law while they're bombing civilian targets and
Georgian cities."
RFE/RL's Georgian and Russian services contributed to this report.
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