Russian halt leaves crucial questions
By Brian Whitmore
Russian troops were advancing on Tbilisi and Georgians were preparing for the
worst. Then, in an announcement that appeared to come out of the blue, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev announced that the five-day military campaign was
over.
Medvedev spoke from the Kremlin, where he was meeting Defense Minister Anatoly
Serdyukov. The president said the "operation to force the Georgian authorities
to peace" was over and its goals "achieved".
Medvedev's August 12 order raised questions as to what prompted the apparent
halt by the Russian army, which many
observers less than one day before were expecting to proceed to Tbilisi.
"I think that under terrible Western pressure - especially American [pressure]
and I think [French] President [Nicolas] Sarkozy has to also take credit - the
Russians understood that they went too far," Alexander Rondeli, president of
the Tbilisi-based Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies,
told RFE/RL. "This outcry from the international community stopped them."
Rondeli said he believed Moscow's "maximum program was to overthrow [Georgian
President Mikheil] Saakashvili and surround Tbilisi". But, he added, their
"minimum program is to save face, so they are saving face now by saying that
all goals of the operation have been achieved".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted on August 12 that regime change
in Tbilisi was not Moscow's goal. But at a joint press conference in Moscow
with Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, the chairman-in-office of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Lavrov admitted that
Russia would like to see the Georgian leader removed.
"We are not making it a condition for ceasing the current stage of military
operations," Lavrov said, "but for the personal information of US leaders, our
position is that Mr Saakashvili can no longer be our partner and it would be
best for him to go."
Other observers, however, argued that Moscow's goals were more limited and
never had any intention to try to take Tbilisi.
Sergei Markedonov, of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis in
Moscow, said he believed that "there was no alternative to using force in
Georgia" to protect Russian interests, but that taking the capital and trying
to overthrow the government "would have meant an open conflict with the West
and Russia doesn't need this".
Markedonov said that from the Kremlin's perspective, the costs of entering
Tbilisi far outweighed the benefits.
"There is no rational reason [for Russian forces] to go to Tbilisi," Markedonov
said. "For what purpose would the Russian Army go to Tbilisi? To conquer
Georgia? It is completely obvious that this would be stupid because the
Georgians are in an anti-Russian mood."
He said that "such a conquest" would lead to "big problems" in the longer term.
"Why does Russia need this?" Markedonov asked.
In Moscow to broker a ceasefire, President Sarkozy welcomed Medvedev's
announcement ending hostilities at a joint press conference with the Russian
leader. He called it "the news that we have been waiting for".
"Now it is necessary to implement the ceasefire and to draw a quick timetable
so that everyone goes back to the positions they held before the conflict,"
Sarkozy added.
Georgian officials remained wary, claiming that Russian forces bombed the
eastern towns of Kareli and Ruisi even after Medvedev's announcement. The
government's claim was confirmed by an RFE/RL correspondent in the area. Just
hours before the Russian president spoke, Tbilisi said Russia carried out an
aerial bombardment of the government offices and an outdoor market in the city
of Gori, killing six people including a child and a Dutch journalist.
According to media reports, Gori's post office and university were on fire and
the town was all but deserted on August 12. Russian officials denied that
Russian forces bombed Gori.
Media reports also suggested Russia launched an offensive in Kodori Gorge, the
only part of the pro-Moscow breakaway region of Abkhazia that had been under
Georgian control. Abkhaz officials, however, claimed it was their forces, and
not the Russians, who were carrying out the attack.
The Georgian Interior Ministry told news agencies Agence France Presse and
Reuters that the country had evacuated police and civilians from Kodori, with
no casualties reported.
While welcoming the Russian president's announcement of an end to military
operations, some Western officials suggested Moscow must do more.
Speaking to reporters in Brussels on August 12, North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer called Russia's
announcement that it was halting military action "an important first step" but
still insufficient. The NATO leader said Russian and Georgian forces need to go
back to positions they held on August 6, the day before hostilities broke out.
He called Georgia "a friend ... and a highly respected partner of NATO" that
remains a candidate for NATO membership.
Copyright (c) 2007, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
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