The Russian invasion of the South Ossetian enclave in Georgia should call into
question a basic component of United States foreign policy - the integration of
Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics into the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO). This policy has been pursued by Democratic and Republican
administrations, but with no public debate and with little thought as to the
long-term consequences. The consequences are now becoming clear, and they are
unpleasant.
On Thursday, thousands of Russian troops were still in South Ossetia after
driving out Georgian forces that tried to regain control of the breakaway
region in an attack last Friday.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is in France for talks
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with President Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently chairs the European Union, before
visiting Georgia on Friday. The US has begun delivering aid by air to the
former Soviet republic.
Moscow's response signals several positions. Russia will intervene in foreign
countries to protect ethnic Russians living there. Russia can readily control
or even cut off important oil pipelines connecting the resources of Central
Asia to Western markets, one of which runs through Georgia. The attack also
signals Russia's displeasure with NATO expansion into Eastern Europe and the
former Soviet Republics. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO
has taken under its increasingly expansive wing Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia,
Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia. Georgia
plans to join in the next few years.
This process has been going on for 15 years, under the Bill Clinton and George
W Bush administrations. And it is as ill thought out as any foreign policy the
US has pursued in decades. The American public greeted each new NATO member as
though they were new neighbors, not as distant and even remote countries the US
was now obliged to defend. NATO is a mutual defense pact and members are
required to go to war if one of them is attacked.
Nor was the effect on Russia thought out. As is well known - though not well
comprehended - Russian history is filled with periodic devastating invasions,
from Germany (twice), France, Sweden and the Mongols. Russian governments, and
the public as well, look on events on their periphery with concerns and fears
that people of a country sharing borders with Canada and Mexico cannot
understand.
NATO forces, pressing steadily deeper into what Russia thought to be a
defensive glacis from a resurgent Germany, set off alarms in the Russian
bureaus and public alike, thereby contributing to the return to authoritarian
government based on national security and militarism.
In retrospect, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, an agreement should
and probably could have been reached between Russian and NATO powers, which
banned each power's forces from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Republics.
But that was not pursued and here we stand at the dangerous intersection of a
heedless NATO policy and a timeless Russian mindset. In the aftermath of the
Ossetian intervention, Americans might well ask themselves if they are willing
to go to war to defend remote countries for whom they have little obligation,
except what stems from those countries having been persuaded to send troops to
Iraq in exchange for some assurance of US/NATO protection.
It's unclear if the people of Western Europe, who are less enamored by war than
Americans are, and who look at least somewhat more thoughtfully on world
affairs, are asking themselves the same question.
It is more probable, however, that events in Georgia will lead to more rapid
military modernization in new NATO members and a few more countries applying
for membership (tuition-free, of course). This in turn will intensify Russian
security concerns and authoritarian trends - dynamics that were likely foreseen
by Russia. A new cold war has begun.
Brian M Downing is the author of several works of political and military
history, including The Military Revolution and Political Change
and The Paths of Glory: War and Social Change in America from the Great War to
Vietnam. He can be reached at brianmdowning@gmail.com.
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