Page 2 of 2 China seeks Caucasian crisis windfall
By M K Bhadrakumar
commentary offered so far in the People's Daily on August 12 called for a
cessation of hostilities in the spirit of the Summer Olympic Games and
disapproved of the Russian intervention, which, it said, "rapidly escalated the
tension and raised international concerns and public anxiety".
It underscored, "Some analysts even showed the concern that military antagonism
could evolve into a new version of the Cold War." There was some advice to the
Kremlin: "War is not the way to settle conflicts. The only way to effectively
resolve disputes is to disregard old grievances, cease hostilities and
negotiate for peace. Only in the backdrop of peace and in the framework of
constructive negotiation can a win-win deal be reached."
Significantly, Beijing does not figure in the list of capitals that the Russian
Foreign Ministry has been in touch with during the past 10 days.
Reciprocity would have meant a Chinese endorsement of the Russian stance.
Indeed, that was how Moscow reacted when trouble broke out in Lhasa in Tibet
and China found itself at the receiving end of Western opinion, especially in
the US's estimation. Evidently, China estimates it deserved whole-hearted
Russian support, and any comparison between Tibet and the Caucasus is
untenable. True, there are no analogies in international affairs. But the fact
remains that Beijing also affirms that the Sino-Russian relationship today is
at an all-time high. A long-standing border demarcation has just been
completed.
Beijing's compulsions
Could the coincidence that three generations of the Bush family were joyfully
holidaying in China last week and enjoying the Olympics have worked on the
Chinese mind? It is hard to say. Looking back, Beijing should have a sense of
gratitude to the Bush family. The George W Bush era has been an extremely
productive eight-year period for China, notwithstanding what much of the world
community might say. It is entirely conceivable that Beijing doesn't want to
spoil the party.
Besides, there are calculations to be made. What is in it for China? Beijing
will be extremely careful on issues concerning national sovereignty, separatism
or anything that smacks of the right of self-determination. That's for sure.
And in the Caucasian cauldron, all these dangerous elements are brewing. China
will face a nasty predicament if Moscow endorses the independence of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia - an eventuality that by no means can be ruled out if Rice
succeeds in her mission in Brussels on Tuesday.
As Beijing would see it, Moscow has already entered a dangerous "no-go" zone by
conducting military operations inside Georgian territory, by putting
conditionalities on the withdrawal of its forces from Georgian soil and by
loudly speculating on the (lack of) realism in laboring to preserve Georgia's
territorial integrity.
In the Chinese perspective, independence of South Ossetia or Abkhazia is
unacceptable, as separatism is evil and self-determination is a dangerous
principle. Period.
Shades of Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet. There are other considerations. China
would see that US-Russia relations are entering a turbulent period. On the
contrary, there is reason to hope that neither Senator John McCain nor Senator
Barack Obama, if elected president, would substantially alter the benign
trajectory of the China policy set during the Bush era. Historically, in the
highly complex matrix of US-Russia-China equations, it only worked to China's
advantage if US-Russia relations frayed. A chill in ties with Russia almost
reflexively prompts Washington to cultivate China. Some signs of it are already
there.
US's differentiated approach
A differentiated approach towards Russia and China is already apparent in the
US agenda regarding the deployment of the missile defense system. As a Russian
commentator put it, "An analysis of America's global missile defense system
shows that Washington is deploying its elements primarily in Eastern Europe
rather than Japan, or other Asian countries or Australia. This is probably
because Washington does not want to irritate China, which could respond by
stepping up the development of its own missile program and increasing the
number of intercontinental ballistic missiles on combat duty."
China doesn't quite bleep on the US radar as a strategic power of consequence
for another 20 years. But Russia has been yesterday's threat and today's
challenge, and its resurgence promises to make it a potential threat tomorrow.
As well-known Sovietologist Professor Stephen Cohen wrote recently, "Despite
its diminished status following the Soviet breakup in 1991, Russia alone
possesses weapons that can destroy the United States, a military-industrial
complex nearly America's equal in exporting arms ... and the planet's largest
oil and natural gas reserves. It also remains the world's largest territorial
country, pivotally situated in the West and the East, at the crossroads of
colliding civilizations, with strategic capabilities from Europe, Iran and
other Middle East nations to North Korea, China, India, Afghanistan and even
Latin America. All things considered, our national security may depend more on
Russia than Russia's does on us."
Therefore, the US is not going to limit itself to Poland and the Czech
Republic, but once it refines the technology of creating a missile defense
deployment in Poland, it will be on the lookout for building more positioning
areas, and for the next few years at least, Washington will have its hands full
confronting Russia with dozens of positioning areas on its borders. The big
ticket will be Ukraine's induction, a country which already possesses advanced
missile technologies of the Soviet era. In short, Washington's preoccupations
on Russia's western and southwestern borders for the foreseeable future suit
China perfectly well.
Russia's energy policies
But China also has to weigh the fallouts on Russia's future energy policies,
which are of direct consequence to Beijing. As of now, Russia views Europe as
the preferred market for its energy exports. This is despite Moscow paying lip
service to Asian markets.
In real terms, Europe is competing with China for Russian energy supplies. This
competition may begin to border on rivalry. According to the US Department of
Energy, Europe's demand for gas will rise by more than 50% by 2025. There is
simply not enough gas going for Europe to sidestep Russian supplies. (Russia
already meets 30% to 50% of Europe's energy needs.)
Europe is now hoping to get Russia to feed the Nabucco pipeline, which was
promoted by Washington in the first instance, ironically, as a project that
bypasses Russian territory and reduces Europe's energy dependence on Moscow.
Russian gas already reaches Turkey - Nabucco's hub - via the Blue Stream
pipeline. Russia's Gazprom holds a 50% stake in the Baumgarten gas hub in
Austria, which is the destination for Nabucco.
Curiously, a Nabucco spokesman was quoted last week as saying, "Nabucco was not
planned to be an anti-Russian project, but to be a pro-European project. The
main focus is to transport gas from alternate sources." China no doubt watches
anxiously whether Nabucco undergoes a metamorphosis and becomes a
Russian-European project. If that happens, Moscow would have even less interest
in robustly developing China as an alternate market for its energy exports. The
North Stream, South Stream and Nabucco - that will be far too much on the
Russian plate.
Russia's energy policies in the coming period will largely depend on the
political equations between Moscow and major European capitals. The stance that
European countries adopt apropos NATO's further expansion will become a
determinant of Russian energy policies. China, therefore, has every reason to
probe how these equations are affected by the crisis in the Caucasus.
Sino-Russian energy consultations are scheduled to be held in Moscow in
October. As an energy guzzler, China will be a huge beneficiary if another
Berlin Wall were to appear in Russia's relations with Europe at this juncture.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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