Moscow eyes Afghanistan in fear
By Dmitry Shlapentokh
With Russia once again in the global arena, observers are focusing on its
"conflict" with the West, namely its offensive in Georgia and its recognition
of the breakaway Georgian states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Certainly, Moscow sees Georgia as an American proxy and resents the intrusion
into its backyard, as well as the encroachment of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO).
Russia has other regional concerns, though. Its decision to conduct military
maneuvers with Kazakhstan went largely unreported, yet this demonstrates
Moscow's increasing worries over a possible threat from the east - Afghanistan.
And while
Russia is convinced it can withstand considerable pressure from the West, this
is not the case with the danger posed by Afghanistan.
When the Taliban took power in 1996, they evoked much apprehension among
Russian leaders, including General Alexander Lebed, the strongman who many had
regarded as the most likely successor to president Boris Yeltsin.
As it turned out, it was the newly elected Vladimir Putin who in 2001
acquiesced to the US's invasion of Afghanistan and ouster of the Taliban, as
well as to the placement of US bases in Central Asia
This was not just to please the George W Bush administration, but because of
the belief that the US could play a large role in erecting a protective shield
around the Taliban and other Islamic extremists.
Russia's relationship with the West, particularly the US, has since
deteriorated, reaching, as some pundits claim, the levels of a new cold war.
But Moscow's fear of Islamists has not diminished and corresponds with the
ongoing general tension between Moscow and Russia's growing number of Muslims.
Putin was able to "Chechenize" the conflict in Chechnya by providing the
Muslim-dominated region virtual independence from Russia, including lavish
subsidies, which look almost like tributes. As president, separatist religious
leader Akhmad Kadyrov was able to attract a considerable number of nationalists
- including former members of the resistance - to his side; and the major
Russian military operations in Chechnya were over.
Still, the end of the marginalization of the nationalists led to the spread of
jihadis, who in a way reinterpreted the Marxist slogan "workers of the world
unite" into a call for Muslims of all countries and ethnicities to form a
collective front against the perceived enemies of Islam.
They spread their operations from Chechnya into the northern Caucasus and
beyond. While Russia was busy in the war with Georgia, the authorities
proclaimed they had discovered a jihadi group, "Bulgarian Jamaat" in Bashkiria,
in the heartland. Muslim-dominated Bashkiria had previously not been known to
have harbored extremists.
Troubles were also recorded in nearby Tatarastan, where locals demanded the
creation of a monument to commemorate the Tatars who defended Kazan, the
Tatarastan capital, from Russian troops in 1552.
Russian authorities believe al-Qaeda wanted to take advantage of the conflict
between Georgia and Russia and engage in acts of terror and sabotage. Taliban
successes - and especially victory - would definitely aggravate the situation.
It is not just the fear of terrorist attacks that concerns Russian authorities.
The economic implications of a Taliban victory are clearly on their minds. A
Taliban success could easily destabilize Central Asia, from which Russian
receives a considerable volume of gas for resale to Europe.
As a result, while Russia's relationship with NATO declined steadily through
most of Putin's tenure, recently it has cooperated with NATO with regard to
Afghanistan - Russia has agreed to provide a corridor for goods that the
alliance sends to Afghanistan.
This arrangement still stands, but Moscow recently sent a message to NATO that
it could close the corridor whenever it wants. Officially, the explanation is
that NATO has continued to press for the admission of Georgia and the US has
engaged in the re-armament of the Georgian army.
There might be another reason: the Russians might have come to the conclusion
that the corridor will make no difference to the ultimate fate of the Afghan
regime of President Hamid Karzai.
The Russians bitterly remember their losing fight in the country in the 1980s,
which came despite their vast troop numbers. The Kremlin is preparing for the
worst, including strengthening military cooperation with Central Asia states.
It is in this context that Russia plans military maneuvers with Kazakhstan.
After the Georgian-Russian war, Russia became increasingly alienated from
Central Asian states, many of which are concerned that Russia will engage in
the same policy in their domains.
Now, with the possibility of a collapsing Karzai government and the
marginalization of the American Middle Eastern empire, the Central Asian elite
could once again look to Russia as the only viable protector against the
possible "Talibanization" of their region.
Dmitry Shlapentokh, PhD, is associate professor of history, College of
Liberal Arts and Sciences, Indiana University South Bend. He is author of
East Against West: The First Encounter - The Life of Themistocles, 2005.
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