The secretary general of the Commonwealth of Independent States' Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Nikolai Bordyuzha, recently announced the
planned formation of an international force in Central Asia that "should be
prepared to repel any threat".
On November 9, after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev submitted an agreement
on the expected 5,000-strong force to the state Duma (parliament) for approval,
Bordyuzha said that the force is to be formed immediately on the agreement's
ratification by all participating states.
On November 11, he began a working visit to Kazakhstan to
discuss the security situation in the CSTO's zone of responsibility. The CSTO
comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan.
But experts argue that, as Moscow touts its efforts to strengthen military
cooperation under the umbrella of the CIS and the CSTO, Russia is really
pursuing its own goal of expanding its military presence and influence in
Central Asia.
Under the working title "Creeping Expansion of Mysterious and Unpredictable
China" on one side and "Concerns About the Aggressive Policies of the United
States in the Region" on the other, Russia is strengthening its cooperation in
the military-political and military-technical spheres in the framework of such
alliances as the CIS and CSTO, especially with the countries of Central Asia.
Bordyuzha said on September 12 that five members of the CSTO - Russia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - had agreed to dramatically
increase the military capabilities of the bloc.
According to Bordyuzha, an international force would be created in Central Asia
that "should be capable of repelling any threat from outside". Units of the
unified special rapid-reaction force would be part of such a force. It would be
composed of 10 battalions, with added protection of the unified air-defense
system. The new structure would be financed by all the participants on an equal
basis, but Russia would provide weapons under agreeable conditions.
Following this big announcement, there was a meeting on October 15 of CSTO
defense ministers in St Petersburg in Russia, at which they discussed questions
pertaining to the common air-defense system.
Besides this, in recent years the members of the CSTO have held a number of
joint military exercises for their forces. This September and October, there
were two joint military exercises: one in Russia, "Center-2008", and another in
Kazakhstan, "Aldaspan-2008". A third exercise, "Shield-2008", is to be held in
western Kazakhstan in the coming weeks.
'Russia never left'
According to General Alibek Kasymov, a former Kazakh defense minister and chief
of staff, Russia is pursuing a concrete goal - to pull its allies closer and
give a signal to the West that military cooperation among CIS states is
continuing.
But in the opinion of other experts, all these measures are a clear indication
of Russia's aspirations to expand its military presence and influence in a
strategically vital region.
In the first years after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia preserved
its position in Central Asia. In particular, it had a large military unit in
Turkmenistan (in Mary), in accordance with an agreement between Moscow and
Ashgabat under which Russian citizens were serving in the Turkmen army, and
Russian border guards kept watch along the border of Tajikistan and
Afghanistan.
During the years of civil war in Tajikistan, several Russian units were based
in the country. An elite paratrooper commando unit was stationed in Tajikistan
to support the CIS Collective Peacekeeping Force (which included troops from
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan).
Moscow-based military expert Vladimir Mukhin says Russia has lost much of its
position in Central Asia since then.
But Russia still has troops and bases in Central Asia in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan
and in Kazakhstan, where Russian troops are based at the Baikonur Cosmodrome
(Russia's space forces) and at the Saryshagan military firing range.
Mukhin believes that for Russia it is expedient to strengthen its military
presence in several countries of the region.
"First, it was expedient for Russia to stake out its presence at first in
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The Khanabad base in Uzbekistan, where earlier
strategic bombers were stationed that could reach India, was a good air base, a
springboard, and was for us a very important base," Mukhin says.
"One problem was Tajikistan, where we did not have a large infrastructure and
where it was necessary to practically build everything from scratch. It is a
different matter when the base is prepared, the Americans fixed it [the
Khanabad base] up very well," he adds. "Secondly, Russia could use, as it did
previously, the military base at Mary. A large part of the air defense was
deployed there as large air force units."
Fighting for influence in Central Asia
Russia wants to regain its previous position in this region on the basis of
bilateral agreements, Mukhin says, but the countries of Central Asia are not
hurrying to allow the Russian military back in. "Some kinds of agreements
exist," he says. "But as is known, the Uzbeks do not want to host Russian
military units. We also cannot deploy anything in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan."
According to Peter Felstead, a military and defense expert from the
London-based Jane's Defence Weekly, the energy resources of Central Asia are
also attractive to Russia and Moscow will continue to try to make advances into
the region.
"I think the one thing you can say is that what happened in Georgia fits a
pattern, so it's all part of a resurgent Russia that believe that they have
been sort of wronged on the world stage and want to come back to a position of
major-power status," Felstead says.
"What I would say is that Russia a lot of time has tried to use energy to try
and wield its way and extend its influence with its neighbors and certain
neighboring countries are almost in a stranglehold from Russia because of their
reliance on Russian energy," he adds. "Where their energy comes from Central
Asia, then I think that you will find that they will be moving to secure that
because that is what they are using to fuel their resurgence."
On the other hand, Tajik analyst Marat Mamadshoev says that merely
strengthening its military presence in Central Asia doesn't necessarily mean
Russia's influence there will rise.
"Recently, we see the politics of China also, which does not have a military
base but which is gradually and persistently advancing its influence in this
region and in many other regions," Mamadshoev says. "Using this example, it
seems to me that the use of economic means is the best way to get a foothold in
the region."
All the same, Kasym Bekmukhammad, another independent expert from Dushanbe,
says that after the Russia-Georgia conflict in the Caucasus, Russia has found
the grounds to expand its presence in Central Asia and strengthen its position
in the region. During the existence of the CIS, Russia has strongly warned
against the presence of external threats in the Central Asian states.
Bekmukhammad says that so far no one has seen the clear threats Moscow has been
warning about, widely read as cross-border terrorism coming from Afghanistan or
other regional hot spots, and that Russia is simply pursuing its geopolitical
goals in an important region like Central Asia.
Besides that, Bekmukhammad notes that the experience of the Russian military
does not show that Russian troops have played the expected role in resolving
internal crises in the countries where they are based. "Russia always takes a
passive position and we witnessed such a situation in Kyrgyzstan," he says.
Here the Tajik analyst is speaking about the passive position of Russia during
the Tajik civil war in 1992-97, the Andijon bloodshed in May 2005 and the
"Tulip" Revolution in Kyrgyzstan in March 2005, when the regime of Askar Akaev
was overthrown.
Sultan-Khan Zhussip is a correspondent in RFE/RL's Kazakh Service.
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